6 ms·

The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

66 points by dlipovetsky 9mo ago

deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]
cmxch 9mo ago
Or perhaps one might pressure Washington to forcibly unwind the deals with OpenAI and NVIDIA with the foundries.
mjhay 9mo ago
If a hot war pops off over Taiwan, affordable CPUs are going to be a ways down the list of my concerns
- yunfei 9mo ago
  True
- nehal3m 9mo ago
  Except everything that runs on electricity has a CPU nowadays; the world as it is cannot function without computing. Your bank, your (municipal) government, airplanes, ships, satellites, televisions, the cell network, cash registers, you get the picture. I realize the CPU's that requires won't implode on day one, but computing becoming unaffordable or even economically unfeasible will have disastrous knock on effects.
  - ThrowawayR2 9mo ago
    There are literally hundreds of semiconductor fabs of various types and process nodes spread all around the world ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... ) and the most common chips are fabricated on older, larger process nodes anyway.
    - nehal3m 9mo ago
      Those are facts, but the industry remains fragile. It didn't take much during Covid, and the Nexperia supply shock combined with DRAM shortages are doing a number on automotive right now. And I imagine the chips manufactured on older larger process nodes would be subsumed to replace newer ones where possible, which cascades. But that's just conjecture on my part.
  - throw-the-towel 9mo ago
    (Sorry for the digression, but your username really does check out in a discussion about CPUs.)
    - nehal3m 9mo ago
      Hah, I hadn't realized, but yes it does lol
  - lproven 9mo ago
    > Except everything that runs on electricity has a CPU nowadays This is true but it totally misses the real point. The point is that most "smart" devices could be perfectly functional and usable with a Z80 or a 6502 or some other simple 8-bit chip controlling them, if the code were kept very small and simple. The bigger point is that we in the modern Western world don't do this, because we've got lazy and it's easier to stick in an Arm core and do it in very inefficient software. Such as something running in Javascript on an entire embedded Web browser, such as all electron apps, which embed Chromium. Worse still, these days, quite possibly vibe coded so even the person who nominally wrote it doesn't know how it works. There are 2 logical corollaries to this: 1. We can make computer-controlled devices without tiny fast 64-bit chips and GPUs, but we are ill-prepared for it. The world will be able to make chips without TSMC, but it will hurt, because we have got slack and lazy. 2. China can make its own chips now, and thanks to FOSS, China has state-of-the-art software stacks that the rest of the world developed it and gave to it for free. It has x86 chips, such as Zhaoxin, but it also has Loongson and so on, and GCC can generate code for them. So China can make its own computers without the aid of the global chip market. But the rest of the world can't so easily.
    - AlotOfReading 9mo ago
      Taiwan is also one of the world's major sources of passive components. They're not as irreplaceable there, but even devices without "tiny fast chips" would be affected by a war there.
  - poulpy123 9mo ago
    Well if a US - China war starts, I don't think cell phones or cash registers will be very high on my priority list. Even it stays "reasonable" (just the US and China, no nuclear weapons), the effect on the world will be so bad that I may not be so concerned by the price of new shops or cars
- tim-tday 9mo ago
  Car manufacturing grinds to a halt. Remember what happened to auto prices in 2022? 10x that. New appliances cannot be manufactured. What dos the absolute absence of new durable goods do to the economy? There’s no new iPhone for five years. No new electronic hardware at all. What does Apple stock do? Own any index funds? Those tank too. Rinse and repeat Thinking of it as “affordable pcs” is exactly wrong which is actually useful. Invert your totally wrong answer and now you have an actual thought.
  - deleted 9mo ago
    [deleted]
  - potato3732842 9mo ago
    As others have stated, there's fabs all over the world. They're insufficient in quality and quantity to satisfy current demand at current prices but they're there and can do a lot of it, especially as demand and requirements get reduced to meet what's available. Don't get me wrong, it would suck, but probably suck less than when everything shut down for covid. >Car manufacturing grinds to a halt. >New appliances cannot be manufactured Until they figure out how to repeal the laws that mandate the features/specs that require the semiconductors in the types and volumes that would be a non-starter. Maybe your washer doesn't need to detect how much stuff you put in and second guess your water setting? What are the statistical odds a $15k Nissan Kix being sold in the desert will ever benefit from ABS? >no new iPhone for five years. No new electronic hardware at all It's not absolute like that. It's more like move the decimal one place on everything and that makes whole classes of products non-viable. >New appliances cannot be manufactured. What does the [severe reduction in proportion to their semiconductor and irreplaceable foreign part contents] absence of new durable goods do to the economy? Fixed for realism. Demand is elastic to some extent. Prices go up. Industries shrink, alternatives grow. In any case, it's a relative transfer of wealth and power from most of HN to their plumber and landscaper and those otherwise less affected.
  - estimator7292 9mo ago
    A dishwasher with a WiFi chipset is not a durable good. Nor is a fridge with a touchscreen, an oven with Bluetooth. You know what is durable? The simple and straightforward electromechanical mechanisms we used for three centuries before integrated circuits. One can find plentiful examples of midcentury and older appliances still in service without major maintenance. It's tough to find a modern appliance in service for more than a decade. The inability to sprinkle magic obsolescence silicon dust over everything will only lead to an increase in quality and durability. The mechanical timer in a 1980s washing machine will never have a firmware update blocking you from using it. A 1950s fridge runs perfectly fine essentially forever without a cloud API and a goddamn app. This hypothetical situation is only bad because you've accepted consumerism and forced obsolescence as the norm. These situations are much worse than not being able to buy a $1600 phone every year. You should be indignant about the unimaginable amount of resources we throw into landfills because the manufacturer decided that you should buy a new one. You should absolutely not be indignant that you can no longer buy shit to throw away. Do you repair your appliances or do you throw them away and have a new one shipped from the other side of the planet? Do you see the problem?
- Kim_Bruning 9mo ago
  I can see why they might not be on your personal list straight away, no. But I bet weapons, logistics, comand&control etc all do need them. So generals and admirals might start sweating just a little.
  - poulpy123 9mo ago
    In this case it means a shorter war so it would be a net positive
    - Kim_Bruning 9mo ago
      You're leaving a lot unsaid! Which (sides) is it a net positive for, are you thinking?
      - poulpy123 9mo ago
        The side that suffer from the war
        Kim_Bruning 9mo ago
        > The side that suffer from the war By that logic the defender should always surrender the moment they're attacked, as that would be the most positive outcome.
- poulpy123 9mo ago
  Clicked to answer something like that.
Supermancho 9mo ago
When nobody acted against Israel, China breathed a lot easier. I think the result affecting affordable CPUs will be the biggest concern for the next ~15 year window.
- mcmoor 9mo ago
  Now I wonder why Israel didn't built something TSMC-tier. It doesn't really seem out of their capability and it'll gain them a lot of advantages especially geopolitically.
  - AlotOfReading 9mo ago
    Israel specialized in startups on the design side, and they absolutely dominate. Mellanox and annapurna labs come to mind. On the manufacturing side there's pretty much just Intel, which has 10nm node and beyond inside the borders and formerly owned mobileye. On the process side there's orbotech, which has a majority in their part of the market. Other than Taiwan itself, it's hard to think of any "small" nations with a comparable density of semiconductor expertise.
    - scrubs 9mo ago
      Orbotech merged with valor sold to a amwrican cad company mentor i believe
- poulpy123 9mo ago
  Nobody did anything about Israel because they have the backing of the US (and are quite powerful themselves). I do hope China's leaders are not so stupid they think the passivity about Palestine means they will have free hands over Taiwan.
Lammy 9mo ago
“If the system breaks down the consequences will still be very painful. But the bigger the system grows the more disastrous the results of its breakdown will be, so if it is to break down it had best break down sooner rather than later.”
- techgnosis 9mo ago
  From Ted Kaczynski https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/national/unabom-manifesto-1.html https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/national...
joelthelion 9mo ago
> American doctrine here, as far as such a thing exists, is to reduce its fab yields to zero by using 2,000 lb kinetic contaminants via the B-2 bomber deposition process What are these "kinetic contaminants"? Does anyone have more detail? I couldn't find anything.
- Doxin 9mo ago
  I can only imagine something like a graphite bomb[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphite_bomb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphite_bomb
  - lproven 9mo ago
    No. It means bombs. It means bombing the fabs to stop them falling into Chinese hands.
  - joelthelion 9mo ago
    Thank you!
    - deleted 9mo ago
      [deleted]
- lproven 9mo ago
  Hi there. Register writer here, and personal friend of the author of this piece. It is a joke. You missed the joke. What the sentence means is "America's policy is that if China takes over Taiwan, it will bomb TSMC's chip fabs." The phrase "kinetic contaminant" means "big bombs". That's why he specified the model of bomber. The B2 is the American "Stealth bomber". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_B-2_Spirit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_B-2_Spirit No, it is not about graphite.
  - joelthelion 9mo ago
    Got it, thanks for the explanation! I thought he was talking about some dirty bomb delivered by he B2s

66 points by dlipovetsky 9mo ago

deleted 9mo ago

[deleted]

cmxch 9mo ago

Or perhaps one might pressure Washington to forcibly unwind the deals with OpenAI and NVIDIA with the foundries.

mjhay 9mo ago

If a hot war pops off over Taiwan, affordable CPUs are going to be a ways down the list of my concerns

yunfei 9mo ago
True
nehal3m 9mo ago
Except everything that runs on electricity has a CPU nowadays; the world as it is cannot function without computing. Your bank, your (municipal) government, airplanes, ships, satellites, televisions, the cell network, cash registers, you get the picture. I realize the CPU's that requires won't implode on day one, but computing becoming unaffordable or even economically unfeasible will have disastrous knock on effects.
- ThrowawayR2 9mo ago
  There are literally hundreds of semiconductor fabs of various types and process nodes spread all around the world ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... ) and the most common chips are fabricated on older, larger process nodes anyway.
  - nehal3m 9mo ago
    Those are facts, but the industry remains fragile. It didn't take much during Covid, and the Nexperia supply shock combined with DRAM shortages are doing a number on automotive right now. And I imagine the chips manufactured on older larger process nodes would be subsumed to replace newer ones where possible, which cascades. But that's just conjecture on my part.
- throw-the-towel 9mo ago
  (Sorry for the digression, but your username really does check out in a discussion about CPUs.)
  - nehal3m 9mo ago
    Hah, I hadn't realized, but yes it does lol
- lproven 9mo ago
  > Except everything that runs on electricity has a CPU nowadays This is true but it totally misses the real point. The point is that most "smart" devices could be perfectly functional and usable with a Z80 or a 6502 or some other simple 8-bit chip controlling them, if the code were kept very small and simple. The bigger point is that we in the modern Western world don't do this, because we've got lazy and it's easier to stick in an Arm core and do it in very inefficient software. Such as something running in Javascript on an entire embedded Web browser, such as all electron apps, which embed Chromium. Worse still, these days, quite possibly vibe coded so even the person who nominally wrote it doesn't know how it works. There are 2 logical corollaries to this: 1. We can make computer-controlled devices without tiny fast 64-bit chips and GPUs, but we are ill-prepared for it. The world will be able to make chips without TSMC, but it will hurt, because we have got slack and lazy. 2. China can make its own chips now, and thanks to FOSS, China has state-of-the-art software stacks that the rest of the world developed it and gave to it for free. It has x86 chips, such as Zhaoxin, but it also has Loongson and so on, and GCC can generate code for them. So China can make its own computers without the aid of the global chip market. But the rest of the world can't so easily.
  - AlotOfReading 9mo ago
    Taiwan is also one of the world's major sources of passive components. They're not as irreplaceable there, but even devices without "tiny fast chips" would be affected by a war there.
- poulpy123 9mo ago
  Well if a US - China war starts, I don't think cell phones or cash registers will be very high on my priority list. Even it stays "reasonable" (just the US and China, no nuclear weapons), the effect on the world will be so bad that I may not be so concerned by the price of new shops or cars
tim-tday 9mo ago
Car manufacturing grinds to a halt. Remember what happened to auto prices in 2022? 10x that. New appliances cannot be manufactured. What dos the absolute absence of new durable goods do to the economy? There’s no new iPhone for five years. No new electronic hardware at all. What does Apple stock do? Own any index funds? Those tank too. Rinse and repeat Thinking of it as “affordable pcs” is exactly wrong which is actually useful. Invert your totally wrong answer and now you have an actual thought.
- deleted 9mo ago
  [deleted]
- potato3732842 9mo ago
  As others have stated, there's fabs all over the world. They're insufficient in quality and quantity to satisfy current demand at current prices but they're there and can do a lot of it, especially as demand and requirements get reduced to meet what's available. Don't get me wrong, it would suck, but probably suck less than when everything shut down for covid. >Car manufacturing grinds to a halt. >New appliances cannot be manufactured Until they figure out how to repeal the laws that mandate the features/specs that require the semiconductors in the types and volumes that would be a non-starter. Maybe your washer doesn't need to detect how much stuff you put in and second guess your water setting? What are the statistical odds a $15k Nissan Kix being sold in the desert will ever benefit from ABS? >no new iPhone for five years. No new electronic hardware at all It's not absolute like that. It's more like move the decimal one place on everything and that makes whole classes of products non-viable. >New appliances cannot be manufactured. What does the [severe reduction in proportion to their semiconductor and irreplaceable foreign part contents] absence of new durable goods do to the economy? Fixed for realism. Demand is elastic to some extent. Prices go up. Industries shrink, alternatives grow. In any case, it's a relative transfer of wealth and power from most of HN to their plumber and landscaper and those otherwise less affected.
- estimator7292 9mo ago
  A dishwasher with a WiFi chipset is not a durable good. Nor is a fridge with a touchscreen, an oven with Bluetooth. You know what is durable? The simple and straightforward electromechanical mechanisms we used for three centuries before integrated circuits. One can find plentiful examples of midcentury and older appliances still in service without major maintenance. It's tough to find a modern appliance in service for more than a decade. The inability to sprinkle magic obsolescence silicon dust over everything will only lead to an increase in quality and durability. The mechanical timer in a 1980s washing machine will never have a firmware update blocking you from using it. A 1950s fridge runs perfectly fine essentially forever without a cloud API and a goddamn app. This hypothetical situation is only bad because you've accepted consumerism and forced obsolescence as the norm. These situations are much worse than not being able to buy a $1600 phone every year. You should be indignant about the unimaginable amount of resources we throw into landfills because the manufacturer decided that you should buy a new one. You should absolutely not be indignant that you can no longer buy shit to throw away. Do you repair your appliances or do you throw them away and have a new one shipped from the other side of the planet? Do you see the problem?
Kim_Bruning 9mo ago
I can see why they might not be on your personal list straight away, no. But I bet weapons, logistics, comand&control etc all do need them. So generals and admirals might start sweating just a little.
- poulpy123 9mo ago
  In this case it means a shorter war so it would be a net positive
  - Kim_Bruning 9mo ago
    You're leaving a lot unsaid! Which (sides) is it a net positive for, are you thinking?
    - poulpy123 9mo ago
      The side that suffer from the war
      - Kim_Bruning 9mo ago
        > The side that suffer from the war By that logic the defender should always surrender the moment they're attacked, as that would be the most positive outcome.
poulpy123 9mo ago
Clicked to answer something like that.

Supermancho 9mo ago

When nobody acted against Israel, China breathed a lot easier. I think the result affecting affordable CPUs will be the biggest concern for the next ~15 year window.

mcmoor 9mo ago
Now I wonder why Israel didn't built something TSMC-tier. It doesn't really seem out of their capability and it'll gain them a lot of advantages especially geopolitically.
- AlotOfReading 9mo ago
  Israel specialized in startups on the design side, and they absolutely dominate. Mellanox and annapurna labs come to mind. On the manufacturing side there's pretty much just Intel, which has 10nm node and beyond inside the borders and formerly owned mobileye. On the process side there's orbotech, which has a majority in their part of the market. Other than Taiwan itself, it's hard to think of any "small" nations with a comparable density of semiconductor expertise.
  - scrubs 9mo ago
    Orbotech merged with valor sold to a amwrican cad company mentor i believe
poulpy123 9mo ago
Nobody did anything about Israel because they have the backing of the US (and are quite powerful themselves). I do hope China's leaders are not so stupid they think the passivity about Palestine means they will have free hands over Taiwan.

Lammy 9mo ago

“If the system breaks down the consequences will still be very painful. But the bigger the system grows the more disastrous the results of its breakdown will be, so if it is to break down it had best break down sooner rather than later.”

techgnosis 9mo ago
From Ted Kaczynski https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/national/unabom-manifesto-1.html https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/national...

joelthelion 9mo ago

> American doctrine here, as far as such a thing exists, is to reduce its fab yields to zero by using 2,000 lb kinetic contaminants via the B-2 bomber deposition process What are these "kinetic contaminants"? Does anyone have more detail? I couldn't find anything.

Doxin 9mo ago
I can only imagine something like a graphite bomb[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphite_bomb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphite_bomb
- lproven 9mo ago
  No. It means bombs. It means bombing the fabs to stop them falling into Chinese hands.
- joelthelion 9mo ago
  Thank you!
  - deleted 9mo ago
    [deleted]
lproven 9mo ago
Hi there. Register writer here, and personal friend of the author of this piece. It is a joke. You missed the joke. What the sentence means is "America's policy is that if China takes over Taiwan, it will bomb TSMC's chip fabs." The phrase "kinetic contaminant" means "big bombs". That's why he specified the model of bomber. The B2 is the American "Stealth bomber". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_B-2_Spirit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_B-2_Spirit No, it is not about graphite.
- joelthelion 9mo ago
  Got it, thanks for the explanation! I thought he was talking about some dirty bomb delivered by he B2s