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Its simpler then that - everyone is facing a hiring crunch because everyone is preparing to weather massive economic downturn as foreign investment pulls out of

Its simpler then that - everyone is facing a hiring crunch because everyone is preparing to weather massive economic downturn as foreign investment pulls out of United States.

alephnerd 9mo ago
Not exactly, and I say this as someone on the boards of multiple companies and have previously been a hiring manager. It's a employer's market now and new grads in a number of disciples are increasingly underprepared aside from a handful of target programs. Furthermore, most companies can limit hiring to at most 15 target programs nationally and maybe 3-4 local programs and get by. For example, a program like UIUC graduates around 1200 CS and CE majors a year from a program with a 4-6% acceptance rate. Just limiting hiring only to UIUC undergrads who pass hiring standards would be enough to fill an entire new grad class. Same with UMich (~1.5k CS/CE undergrads a year), Cal (~1k CS/EECS undergrads a year), and a handful of other target programs. And if we feel those candidates are overpriced, we can arbitrage talent globally if needed. I've mentioned this multiple times on HN as well. Furthermore, the Econ hiring crisis has been going on for a decade.
- ActorNightly 9mo ago
  You are missing the bigger picture. The stock market (which determines overall hiring) is propped up by large cap Tech, which is currently riding on AI, which is currently riding on TSMC. US politically is going down the drain. Its a fuse that can only be extinguished by Trumps health issues. China knows this, and is already doing preparations to invade Taiwan should US significantly weaken. Every other metric that you are see is secondary to this. Big tech hired like crazy during pandemic to grow for cheap cost, and then fired a whole bunch of people later. Companies dgaf about standards, they can essentially brute force stuff with enough headcount and higher salaries. And now, everyone is watching and waiting to see what will happen.
  - alephnerd 9mo ago
    As I mentioned, I am one of those people who makes asset management decisions. Political instability is annoying, but most funds are well diversified beyond mega-cap tech and our LPs don't have anywhere else to park capital. There is some opportunistic geopolitical hedging, but it isn't enough to tip the scales. For example, in my specific segment of the industry (cybersecurity/DefenseTech), we continued to operate as normal in Israel despite having missiles rain down from across the Middle East, a couple attempted suicide bombings near our TLV office, and employees of our portfolio companies and in some cases our founders being deployed. > Companies dgaf about standards, they can essentially brute force stuff with enough headcount and higher salaries We did back when I was in BigTech before I entered PE/VC a couple years ago, and it still matters at the companies that I'm a board member or advisor for. > And now, everyone is watching and waiting to see what will happen Partially. A lot of diversification was already done. > US politically is going down the drain. Its a fuse that can only be extinguished by Trumps health issues. China knows this, and is already doing preparations to invade Taiwan should US significantly weaken In that hypothetical, where else do we go? In such a world, the EU+UK is likely to see a military confrontation with Russia in the 2028-30 timeframe, China is out of the picture, Japan/SK/Aus would be dragged into conflict, India is likely to see a military confrontation with Pakistan or China by 2035, and the Gulf would re-ignite.
    - ActorNightly 9mo ago
      I hope you realize that your entire premise is essentially assuming the fact that people are just going to continue showing up to work no matter what happens. This isn't the case. Economy is effectively the desire of people to show up to work and make money so then can spend it on things made by other people through work. There are events that can happen that are Black Swan events - i.e the unknown, unknowns from an economic perspective, that essentially can fuck up the economy big time. Say Trump institutes martial law after declaring himself forever president. You are going to see significant economic downturn. What happens in a sinking market? Companies move money. Companies will surive. People won't. Its a tale as old as time. > we continued to operate as normal in Israel despite having missiles rain down from across the Middle East Thats because an attack by a militant group is much, much different than a economic grind into decline. Its akin to a natural disaster - it doesn't erase economic demand. >In that hypothetical, where else do we go? Pretty much WW3. All the ingredients are there, straight down to the ideology being more important than truth. Like you said, when dominoes fall, countries that want to make moves will make moves.
PeterStuer 9mo ago
Where do you see 'foreign investment pulling out of the US'? Do you have a link to some data?
- throwaway86981 9mo ago
  [dead]
- ActorNightly 9mo ago
  All the data you need is in the bullshit that comes out of the White House, daily. Companies are not pulling out yet because nobody is certain, but the writing has been on the wall. Tech sector froze hiring and did layoffs specifically after the insane tariff policy when everyone realized that its no longer just memes anymore. For example, today, Jerome Powell just got indited. Its pretty clear that end of central bank independence is coming. Remember, higher up execs dgaf if US economy fails, they have their money bags. Once 2026 elections get cancelled and US goes full fascist, you are gonna see the shitstorm happen real time. On top of that, if US is in Tumroil, China will most likely invade Taiwan, since NATO wouldn't be able to respond, and bye bye all the stock market gains. Save this comment if you think im being extremely hyperbolic, and make sure to read it again in 2 years.
  - PeterStuer 9mo ago
    I am afraid your claims about foreign investment pulling out of the US will need more substantiated data.
    - lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 9mo ago
      Perhaps you're intending to say that "a claim made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence" but that's a personal dismissal. The way this is phrased comes off a bit self-important; they don't really "need" that data because they don't "need" you to not dismiss their claim. I rather get the impression they don't care what you think and were just answering your question.
    - ActorNightly 9mo ago

Its simpler then that - everyone is facing a hiring crunch because everyone is preparing to weather massive economic downturn as foreign investment pulls out of United States.

alephnerd 9mo ago

Not exactly, and I say this as someone on the boards of multiple companies and have previously been a hiring manager. It's a employer's market now and new grads in a number of disciples are increasingly underprepared aside from a handful of target programs. Furthermore, most companies can limit hiring to at most 15 target programs nationally and maybe 3-4 local programs and get by. For example, a program like UIUC graduates around 1200 CS and CE majors a year from a program with a 4-6% acceptance rate. Just limiting hiring only to UIUC undergrads who pass hiring standards would be enough to fill an entire new grad class. Same with UMich (~1.5k CS/CE undergrads a year), Cal (~1k CS/EECS undergrads a year), and a handful of other target programs. And if we feel those candidates are overpriced, we can arbitrage talent globally if needed. I've mentioned this multiple times on HN as well. Furthermore, the Econ hiring crisis has been going on for a decade.

ActorNightly 9mo ago
You are missing the bigger picture. The stock market (which determines overall hiring) is propped up by large cap Tech, which is currently riding on AI, which is currently riding on TSMC. US politically is going down the drain. Its a fuse that can only be extinguished by Trumps health issues. China knows this, and is already doing preparations to invade Taiwan should US significantly weaken. Every other metric that you are see is secondary to this. Big tech hired like crazy during pandemic to grow for cheap cost, and then fired a whole bunch of people later. Companies dgaf about standards, they can essentially brute force stuff with enough headcount and higher salaries. And now, everyone is watching and waiting to see what will happen.
- alephnerd 9mo ago
  As I mentioned, I am one of those people who makes asset management decisions. Political instability is annoying, but most funds are well diversified beyond mega-cap tech and our LPs don't have anywhere else to park capital. There is some opportunistic geopolitical hedging, but it isn't enough to tip the scales. For example, in my specific segment of the industry (cybersecurity/DefenseTech), we continued to operate as normal in Israel despite having missiles rain down from across the Middle East, a couple attempted suicide bombings near our TLV office, and employees of our portfolio companies and in some cases our founders being deployed. > Companies dgaf about standards, they can essentially brute force stuff with enough headcount and higher salaries We did back when I was in BigTech before I entered PE/VC a couple years ago, and it still matters at the companies that I'm a board member or advisor for. > And now, everyone is watching and waiting to see what will happen Partially. A lot of diversification was already done. > US politically is going down the drain. Its a fuse that can only be extinguished by Trumps health issues. China knows this, and is already doing preparations to invade Taiwan should US significantly weaken In that hypothetical, where else do we go? In such a world, the EU+UK is likely to see a military confrontation with Russia in the 2028-30 timeframe, China is out of the picture, Japan/SK/Aus would be dragged into conflict, India is likely to see a military confrontation with Pakistan or China by 2035, and the Gulf would re-ignite.
  - ActorNightly 9mo ago
    I hope you realize that your entire premise is essentially assuming the fact that people are just going to continue showing up to work no matter what happens. This isn't the case. Economy is effectively the desire of people to show up to work and make money so then can spend it on things made by other people through work. There are events that can happen that are Black Swan events - i.e the unknown, unknowns from an economic perspective, that essentially can fuck up the economy big time. Say Trump institutes martial law after declaring himself forever president. You are going to see significant economic downturn. What happens in a sinking market? Companies move money. Companies will surive. People won't. Its a tale as old as time. > we continued to operate as normal in Israel despite having missiles rain down from across the Middle East Thats because an attack by a militant group is much, much different than a economic grind into decline. Its akin to a natural disaster - it doesn't erase economic demand. >In that hypothetical, where else do we go? Pretty much WW3. All the ingredients are there, straight down to the ideology being more important than truth. Like you said, when dominoes fall, countries that want to make moves will make moves.

PeterStuer 9mo ago

Where do you see 'foreign investment pulling out of the US'? Do you have a link to some data?

throwaway86981 9mo ago
[dead]
ActorNightly 9mo ago
All the data you need is in the bullshit that comes out of the White House, daily. Companies are not pulling out yet because nobody is certain, but the writing has been on the wall. Tech sector froze hiring and did layoffs specifically after the insane tariff policy when everyone realized that its no longer just memes anymore. For example, today, Jerome Powell just got indited. Its pretty clear that end of central bank independence is coming. Remember, higher up execs dgaf if US economy fails, they have their money bags. Once 2026 elections get cancelled and US goes full fascist, you are gonna see the shitstorm happen real time. On top of that, if US is in Tumroil, China will most likely invade Taiwan, since NATO wouldn't be able to respond, and bye bye all the stock market gains. Save this comment if you think im being extremely hyperbolic, and make sure to read it again in 2 years.
- PeterStuer 9mo ago
  I am afraid your claims about foreign investment pulling out of the US will need more substantiated data.
  - lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 9mo ago
    Perhaps you're intending to say that "a claim made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence" but that's a personal dismissal. The way this is phrased comes off a bit self-important; they don't really "need" that data because they don't "need" you to not dismiss their claim. I rather get the impression they don't care what you think and were just answering your question.
  - ActorNightly 9mo ago