7 ms·

It won’t be long before climate change starts causing mass migrations and the associated conflicts. With the current unstable world order we could really do wit

by adrianN 9mo ago

It won’t be long before climate change starts causing mass migrations and the associated conflicts. With the current unstable world order we could really do without another massive problem.

netsharc 9mo ago
Are you writing from e.g. 2008? In 2010 Russian forest fires caused grain shortages and the price to go up, creating the Arab Spring and including the start of the Syrian civil war. That caused a wave of refugees that peaked in 2015. That caused the rise of right wing racist populism in Europe...
- fleroviumna 9mo ago
  [dead]
- adrianN 9mo ago
  In that instance climate change (probably?) played a role, but that is unfortunately not obvious enough to reach the people who are not already concerned about climate change. Millions migrating from India somewhere else because there is no water or wet bulb temperatures become deadly hopefully would cause more people to notice.
  - BLKNSLVR 9mo ago
    That will be the case, ie. cognitive dissonance / denial, for many future climate change caused incidents as well. This kind of reasoning: "California wildfires and tornadoes have always been part of the US weather patterns" Whilst ignoring the increasing frequency and magnitude / intensity.
    - nandomrumber 9mo ago
      In California wildfires, how do you separate climate related effects from the effects the invasive gumtree problem? Gumtree forests tend to need more frequent low intensity burns to clear fuel build up, which Australian Aboriginals used to manage.
jmward01 9mo ago
Arguably Iran is seeing turmoil, at least partially, due to drought. https://www.npr.org/2025/08/17/nx-s1-5500318/iranian-officials-warn-tehran-could-run-out-of-water-in-weeks-amidst-massive-drought https://www.npr.org/2025/08/17/nx-s1-5500318/iranian-officia...
- chii 9mo ago
  while the drought was the last straw, i think the mismanagement of their water resources by the regime (for embezzlement of public funds, direct or indirect, into insider pockets etc) is the true root cause. There's "enough" water to last thru the current drought, if it was better utilized in the past.
  - lysace 9mo ago
    Supporting this: https://e360.yale.edu/features/iran-water-drought-dams-qanats https://e360.yale.edu/features/iran-water-drought-dams-qanat... “The government blames the current crisis on changing climate [but] the dramatic water security issues of Iran are rooted in decades of disintegrated planning and managerial myopia,” says Keveh Madani, a former deputy head of the country’s environment department and now director of the United Nations University’s Institute of Water, Environment and Health.
    - Y-bar 9mo ago
      It takes a certain kind of self-delusion to blame climate change and at the same time ignore that your own actions has been one of the major drivers, both in the past and today, of that very same climate change.
      - chii 9mo ago
        While you cannot put the blame on climate change onto iran alone (all of humanity has a part in it), the regime wants to deflect the blame conveniently onto climate change so as to absolve themselves of being responsible for their current water crisis. So it's not really delusion, but irresponsibility and selfishness.
deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]
_ink_ 9mo ago
I am really puzzled that this topic is not present in the public discourse.
- mvdwoord 9mo ago
  Not sure, but I have heard that more than plenty in public discourse (NL / W-Eur) and even the repeated blatant lies about the 2015 wave of migration to be due to climate change.
  - grumbelbart2 9mo ago
    Climate change was likely a factor in 2015. https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-war-in-syria/a-56711650 https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-wa... > even the repeated blatant lies It is difficult to have a reasonable discourse when starting with such overkill positions. The topic is way too nuanced. The civil war in Syria had many reasons, political, economic, religious, but also environmental. Climate change massively increases the risk on water supply and harvesting yields, and if that risk manifests in a situation where people are already unhappy due to other reasons, it can be the trigger for large-scale reactions. With all that having many factors, you'll rarely be able to point to one thing as "the" cause. That does not make it less relevant, though.
- Cthulhu_ 9mo ago
  I'm puzzled why you think it isn't.
- zvqcMMV6Zcr 9mo ago
  Politicians look at best at next term, CEOs look at next quarter. Climate changes took decades to manifest effects. And those 2 groups produce most news "worthy" messages. Journalism is quite close to being dead (with local reporting already being buried), as rephrasing PR statements is cheapest and fastest way to produce "content". Who is supposed to nudge public discourse in that direction, "influencers"?
  - HighGoldstein 9mo ago
grumbelbart2 9mo ago
Some say it was a factor in Syria as well: https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-war-in-syria/a-56711650 https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-wa...
Cthulhu_ 9mo ago
As others have said, it's already happening, and it'll only get worse. But since it's not western countries it's not highlighted much. But when the AMOC stops and western Europe's winters get longer there will be huge changes too. If I recall correctly, the AMOC stopping is a trigger for an ice age, that is, ice sheets / the north pole going down way south. This would make anything above France uninhabitable, if not wiped off the map entirely. But it'd be a steady process of increasingly cold winters, so likely in our lifetime it'd mainly mean we change how we build houses and buildings. But long term, people would move.
- gambiting 9mo ago
  >>But it'd be a steady process of increasingly cold winters I was in Switzerland last summer, in Glarus Alps, and walking around I found a sign that basically said that the reason why all the mountains around it were "smooth" in appearance is because during last ice age all of it was covered in ice, and the rock got smooth as the ice started to shift and slide over the course of hundreds of years. It said that only the highest peaks would be free of ice, and even then just barely - and all of those were above 2000m above(current) sea level. It's crazy to think that an ice age doesn't just mean "it's very cold" - it means there is enough ice to bury europe under 2 kilometers of ice. That's not survivable in any way, we would just have to move south somewhere - but like you said, even if it happens again it will take thousands of years to get to that point.
  - arethuza 9mo ago
    Not sure it would take that long - the Younger Dryas only lasted 1,200 years and resulted in fairly significant glaciation here in Scotland - although nothing like the depth of ice of the full ice age.
  - RHSman2 9mo ago
    You should study a bit of physical geography and glacialology. Not all ‘ice ages’ are the same. A true ice age as you discuss is due to the distance we are from the sun. Unfortunately, we are in the opposite and the compounding effects of human induced greenhouse effect will doom us. It’s a bit like nature/nuture. There is stuff we can control. How we handle our species and our home, the earth.
verisimi 9mo ago
They have been talking about climate change for years (ozone layer - get rid of your old fridge). And the media really does highlight weather events in other countries. I think the idea is one corporations can get behind - change, like war, is good for business.

by adrianN 9mo ago

It won’t be long before climate change starts causing mass migrations and the associated conflicts. With the current unstable world order we could really do without another massive problem.

netsharc 9mo ago

Are you writing from e.g. 2008? In 2010 Russian forest fires caused grain shortages and the price to go up, creating the Arab Spring and including the start of the Syrian civil war. That caused a wave of refugees that peaked in 2015. That caused the rise of right wing racist populism in Europe...

fleroviumna 9mo ago
[dead]
adrianN 9mo ago
In that instance climate change (probably?) played a role, but that is unfortunately not obvious enough to reach the people who are not already concerned about climate change. Millions migrating from India somewhere else because there is no water or wet bulb temperatures become deadly hopefully would cause more people to notice.
- BLKNSLVR 9mo ago
  That will be the case, ie. cognitive dissonance / denial, for many future climate change caused incidents as well. This kind of reasoning: "California wildfires and tornadoes have always been part of the US weather patterns" Whilst ignoring the increasing frequency and magnitude / intensity.
  - nandomrumber 9mo ago
    In California wildfires, how do you separate climate related effects from the effects the invasive gumtree problem? Gumtree forests tend to need more frequent low intensity burns to clear fuel build up, which Australian Aboriginals used to manage.

jmward01 9mo ago

Arguably Iran is seeing turmoil, at least partially, due to drought. https://www.npr.org/2025/08/17/nx-s1-5500318/iranian-officials-warn-tehran-could-run-out-of-water-in-weeks-amidst-massive-drought https://www.npr.org/2025/08/17/nx-s1-5500318/iranian-officia...

chii 9mo ago
while the drought was the last straw, i think the mismanagement of their water resources by the regime (for embezzlement of public funds, direct or indirect, into insider pockets etc) is the true root cause. There's "enough" water to last thru the current drought, if it was better utilized in the past.
- lysace 9mo ago
  Supporting this: https://e360.yale.edu/features/iran-water-drought-dams-qanats https://e360.yale.edu/features/iran-water-drought-dams-qanat... “The government blames the current crisis on changing climate [but] the dramatic water security issues of Iran are rooted in decades of disintegrated planning and managerial myopia,” says Keveh Madani, a former deputy head of the country’s environment department and now director of the United Nations University’s Institute of Water, Environment and Health.
  - Y-bar 9mo ago
    It takes a certain kind of self-delusion to blame climate change and at the same time ignore that your own actions has been one of the major drivers, both in the past and today, of that very same climate change.
    - chii 9mo ago
      While you cannot put the blame on climate change onto iran alone (all of humanity has a part in it), the regime wants to deflect the blame conveniently onto climate change so as to absolve themselves of being responsible for their current water crisis. So it's not really delusion, but irresponsibility and selfishness.

deleted 9mo ago

[deleted]

_ink_ 9mo ago

I am really puzzled that this topic is not present in the public discourse.

mvdwoord 9mo ago
Not sure, but I have heard that more than plenty in public discourse (NL / W-Eur) and even the repeated blatant lies about the 2015 wave of migration to be due to climate change.
- grumbelbart2 9mo ago
  Climate change was likely a factor in 2015. https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-war-in-syria/a-56711650 https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-wa... > even the repeated blatant lies It is difficult to have a reasonable discourse when starting with such overkill positions. The topic is way too nuanced. The civil war in Syria had many reasons, political, economic, religious, but also environmental. Climate change massively increases the risk on water supply and harvesting yields, and if that risk manifests in a situation where people are already unhappy due to other reasons, it can be the trigger for large-scale reactions. With all that having many factors, you'll rarely be able to point to one thing as "the" cause. That does not make it less relevant, though.
Cthulhu_ 9mo ago
I'm puzzled why you think it isn't.
zvqcMMV6Zcr 9mo ago
Politicians look at best at next term, CEOs look at next quarter. Climate changes took decades to manifest effects. And those 2 groups produce most news "worthy" messages. Journalism is quite close to being dead (with local reporting already being buried), as rephrasing PR statements is cheapest and fastest way to produce "content". Who is supposed to nudge public discourse in that direction, "influencers"?
- HighGoldstein 9mo ago

grumbelbart2 9mo ago

Some say it was a factor in Syria as well: https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-war-in-syria/a-56711650 https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-wa...

Cthulhu_ 9mo ago

As others have said, it's already happening, and it'll only get worse. But since it's not western countries it's not highlighted much. But when the AMOC stops and western Europe's winters get longer there will be huge changes too. If I recall correctly, the AMOC stopping is a trigger for an ice age, that is, ice sheets / the north pole going down way south. This would make anything above France uninhabitable, if not wiped off the map entirely. But it'd be a steady process of increasingly cold winters, so likely in our lifetime it'd mainly mean we change how we build houses and buildings. But long term, people would move.

gambiting 9mo ago
>>But it'd be a steady process of increasingly cold winters I was in Switzerland last summer, in Glarus Alps, and walking around I found a sign that basically said that the reason why all the mountains around it were "smooth" in appearance is because during last ice age all of it was covered in ice, and the rock got smooth as the ice started to shift and slide over the course of hundreds of years. It said that only the highest peaks would be free of ice, and even then just barely - and all of those were above 2000m above(current) sea level. It's crazy to think that an ice age doesn't just mean "it's very cold" - it means there is enough ice to bury europe under 2 kilometers of ice. That's not survivable in any way, we would just have to move south somewhere - but like you said, even if it happens again it will take thousands of years to get to that point.
- arethuza 9mo ago
  Not sure it would take that long - the Younger Dryas only lasted 1,200 years and resulted in fairly significant glaciation here in Scotland - although nothing like the depth of ice of the full ice age.
- RHSman2 9mo ago
  You should study a bit of physical geography and glacialology. Not all ‘ice ages’ are the same. A true ice age as you discuss is due to the distance we are from the sun. Unfortunately, we are in the opposite and the compounding effects of human induced greenhouse effect will doom us. It’s a bit like nature/nuture. There is stuff we can control. How we handle our species and our home, the earth.

verisimi 9mo ago

They have been talking about climate change for years (ozone layer - get rid of your old fridge). And the media really does highlight weather events in other countries. I think the idea is one corporations can get behind - change, like war, is good for business.