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Shots fired. Even the republicans will not be able to ignore this and they know that if Powell caves in the American economy will likely collapse. So who will s

by jacquesm 10mo ago

Shots fired. Even the republicans will not be able to ignore this and they know that if Powell caves in the American economy will likely collapse. So who will speak up in his defense?

breakyerself 10mo ago
It's probably going to collapse anyway. He's been hitting all of the pillars of the economy with a sledge hammer.
- jacquesm 10mo ago
  Yes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. If Trump forcibly removes the FED chair on a pretext things could go downhill very fast. You can probably kiss the USD as a reserve currency goodbye overnight and China is going to have a real problem given the amount of debt they hold. This could easily knock the last pillar that holds it all up away.
  - hvb2 10mo ago
    > Yes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. Excuse me? It lost over 10% in a year against the euro and almost 10% against the British pound. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR
- altmanaltman 10mo ago
  I wonder how the stock market would look if AI wasn't such a big driving factor. Or how it would look if there was no sledge hammer. Insane times.
  - f33d5173 10mo ago
    My working theory is that the ai bubble is caused by trump. People are too uncertain to want to invest in most industries, but they have to put their money somewhere, so they put it in ai stocks. Since the supreme court is likely to rule trump's tariffs illegal in a week or so, this may lead to a stock market crash. As people reallocate their portfolios, they will sell their ai stocks, which will pop the bubble and cause a crash. Something to watch out for.
    - altmanaltman 10mo ago
      Valid theory, and if you look at the prices of assets like gold, the reallocation is already happening. But I feel a near-term crash in AI stocks is just not coming unless we are headed towards catastrophic economic conditions. Lots of market forces are involved in AI now and even people selling stocks (or a major correction) will not pop the AI bubble since the major players have invested way too much cash to just let it go away at this point. (IMO)
    - JumpinJack_Cash 10mo ago
      I don't think so. Remember the first time you wanted to buy a stock. You used a product or a service that you liked immensely, realized it had a stock and wanted to be involved. 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' when they make a video with Sora or generate a pamphlet without having to work
      - rsynnott 10mo ago
        So you’re hoping for the ai bubble to be saved by naive retail investors? I mean, that can’t last forever.
        mikestew 10mo ago
        Nor would it have much impact. Retail investors are a tiny part of the market. Sure, we all have 401Ks and IRAs, but are we collectively trading GOOG and MSFT? No. The people managing funds that go into those 401Ks are trading those stocks, but individually we aren't (generally speaking, of course).
      - hvb2 10mo ago
        > 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' Subtract the part that doesn't know they're using AI or when they do know have mixed experiences. Then subtract the vast vast majority of people who don't have the money to invest.
- deleted 10mo ago
  [deleted]
moogly 10mo ago
> Even the republicans will not be able to ignore this GOP: "Hold my beer."
- jacquesm 10mo ago
  Yes, there is a chance of that.
12_throw_away 10mo ago
> Even the republicans will not be able to ignore this Oh boy would I love to join you in whatever alternate dimension you live in.
- jacquesm 10mo ago
  Republican representatives have been very much behaving like cattle, they're scared and they think that there are no other options but to cower and to jump to Trump's every whim. If one of them stands tall and survives (which remains to be seen) and speaks up then quite possibly others will follow.
  - intended 10mo ago
    Republicans are afraid of their base. This is what has been said by republican reps when asked why they don’t break with Trump. Even now, Trump has some impressive Republican approval numbers given the scenario America finds itself in. He operates on a version of America that is a shadow of the old nation, and in that shadow, it doesn’t actually need the capabilities and complexities it had developed over the past century. It needs to be simple enough to get votes and conversation points on Fox, and everything else can be blamed on some meme of the moment. It’s insane to see, but apparently we have the technology to make Hallucination driven government work.
    - dionian 10mo ago
      I think vast, permanent, unelected bureaucracies should be relegated to the shadows.
- jasondigitized 10mo ago
  Money rules everything and if there is one thing the donor class will not lose is their money. They are willing to turn a blind eye to the ripping up of the Constitution but as soon as you rip up the money, phone calls will be made, meetings will be had, and Vanguard and JP Morgan and Walmart will get what they want.
jaredklewis 10mo ago
Uh have you met Republicans? Anyone not fully onboard that had even half a spine retired or got voted out. The rest either love it or just fall in line so they can collect paychecks.
camgunz 10mo ago
Republicans ignored a literal coup
jscottmiller 10mo ago
I don’t believe this will cause the collapse in the economy (short to mid term) that you are expecting, where I am defining “this” as a federal funds rate that is politically driven and lower than what Chair Powell would have otherwise set. On the contrary, I think it will largely benefit the kinds of affluent asset holders that comprise the top say 5% of the country, which probably accounts for most members of congress and the senate. I think those people will look around them and think this is ugly but otherwise fine. The inflation that follows will be painful to the rest of the country and, with any luck, an opposition party will be able to create a political narrative out of some solution to that pain.

Shots fired. Even the republicans will not be able to ignore this and they know that if Powell caves in the American economy will likely collapse. So who will speak up in his defense?

breakyerself 10mo ago

It's probably going to collapse anyway. He's been hitting all of the pillars of the economy with a sledge hammer.

jacquesm 10mo ago
Yes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. If Trump forcibly removes the FED chair on a pretext things could go downhill very fast. You can probably kiss the USD as a reserve currency goodbye overnight and China is going to have a real problem given the amount of debt they hold. This could easily knock the last pillar that holds it all up away.
- hvb2 10mo ago
  > Yes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. Excuse me? It lost over 10% in a year against the euro and almost 10% against the British pound. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR
altmanaltman 10mo ago
I wonder how the stock market would look if AI wasn't such a big driving factor. Or how it would look if there was no sledge hammer. Insane times.
- f33d5173 10mo ago
  My working theory is that the ai bubble is caused by trump. People are too uncertain to want to invest in most industries, but they have to put their money somewhere, so they put it in ai stocks. Since the supreme court is likely to rule trump's tariffs illegal in a week or so, this may lead to a stock market crash. As people reallocate their portfolios, they will sell their ai stocks, which will pop the bubble and cause a crash. Something to watch out for.
  - altmanaltman 10mo ago
    Valid theory, and if you look at the prices of assets like gold, the reallocation is already happening. But I feel a near-term crash in AI stocks is just not coming unless we are headed towards catastrophic economic conditions. Lots of market forces are involved in AI now and even people selling stocks (or a major correction) will not pop the AI bubble since the major players have invested way too much cash to just let it go away at this point. (IMO)
  - JumpinJack_Cash 10mo ago
    I don't think so. Remember the first time you wanted to buy a stock. You used a product or a service that you liked immensely, realized it had a stock and wanted to be involved. 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' when they make a video with Sora or generate a pamphlet without having to work
    - rsynnott 10mo ago
      So you’re hoping for the ai bubble to be saved by naive retail investors? I mean, that can’t last forever.
      - mikestew 10mo ago
        Nor would it have much impact. Retail investors are a tiny part of the market. Sure, we all have 401Ks and IRAs, but are we collectively trading GOOG and MSFT? No. The people managing funds that go into those 401Ks are trading those stocks, but individually we aren't (generally speaking, of course).
    - hvb2 10mo ago
      > 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' Subtract the part that doesn't know they're using AI or when they do know have mixed experiences. Then subtract the vast vast majority of people who don't have the money to invest.
deleted 10mo ago
[deleted]

moogly 10mo ago

> Even the republicans will not be able to ignore this GOP: "Hold my beer."

jacquesm 10mo ago
Yes, there is a chance of that.

12_throw_away 10mo ago

> Even the republicans will not be able to ignore this Oh boy would I love to join you in whatever alternate dimension you live in.

jacquesm 10mo ago
Republican representatives have been very much behaving like cattle, they're scared and they think that there are no other options but to cower and to jump to Trump's every whim. If one of them stands tall and survives (which remains to be seen) and speaks up then quite possibly others will follow.
- intended 10mo ago
  Republicans are afraid of their base. This is what has been said by republican reps when asked why they don’t break with Trump. Even now, Trump has some impressive Republican approval numbers given the scenario America finds itself in. He operates on a version of America that is a shadow of the old nation, and in that shadow, it doesn’t actually need the capabilities and complexities it had developed over the past century. It needs to be simple enough to get votes and conversation points on Fox, and everything else can be blamed on some meme of the moment. It’s insane to see, but apparently we have the technology to make Hallucination driven government work.
  - dionian 10mo ago
    I think vast, permanent, unelected bureaucracies should be relegated to the shadows.
jasondigitized 10mo ago
Money rules everything and if there is one thing the donor class will not lose is their money. They are willing to turn a blind eye to the ripping up of the Constitution but as soon as you rip up the money, phone calls will be made, meetings will be had, and Vanguard and JP Morgan and Walmart will get what they want.

jaredklewis 10mo ago

Uh have you met Republicans? Anyone not fully onboard that had even half a spine retired or got voted out. The rest either love it or just fall in line so they can collect paychecks.

camgunz 10mo ago

Republicans ignored a literal coup

jscottmiller 10mo ago

I don’t believe this will cause the collapse in the economy (short to mid term) that you are expecting, where I am defining “this” as a federal funds rate that is politically driven and lower than what Chair Powell would have otherwise set. On the contrary, I think it will largely benefit the kinds of affluent asset holders that comprise the top say 5% of the country, which probably accounts for most members of congress and the senate. I think those people will look around them and think this is ugly but otherwise fine. The inflation that follows will be painful to the rest of the country and, with any luck, an opposition party will be able to create a political narrative out of some solution to that pain.