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For reference, China installs about 1 GW of solar per day. By this time next week, they will have surpassed the output of this entire project.
by kibwen 10mo ago
For reference, China installs about 1 GW of solar per day. By this time next week, they will have surpassed the output of this entire project.
- softwaredoug 10mo agoThe US, in 2024, installed ~0.13 GW of solar per day. https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2024-year-in-review/ https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-rep... 6 GW Nuclear is either a tech company getting ahead of bad PR with a token gesture. Or its maybe? the start of something real.
- echelon 10mo agoTwo years ago we were installing 1/10th of Chinese solar today? Where are we at today? Can we catch up under this administration? Where do we compare on a nuclear basis? I know my state installed nuclear reactors recently, but I'm not aware of any other build outs. In a war game scenario, China is probably more concerned about losing access to oil and natural gas than we are. Not that we shouldn't be building this stuff quickly either.
- worik 10mo ago> Can we catch up under this administration? No. The future is Chinese, if the Chinese can maintain good governance. A big "if"
- boringg 10mo agoSolar and Nuclear energy are different energy products. China is also bringing on an insane amount of nuclear energy.
- epistasis 10mo agoChina is building a tiny amount of nuclear in comparison to their wind, solar, storage, and HVDC builds. Only something like 50-100GW over thw coming decades. The quantity being built only makes sense as a strategic hedge, not as a primary strategy.
- ViewTrick1002 10mo agoRenewables crash the money making potential of nuclear power. Why should someone buy ~18-24 cents/kWh new built nuclear power excluding backup, transmission costs, taxes, final waste deposit etc. when cheap renewables deliver? https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/What-the-Market-Gets-Wrong-about-Renewables.html https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Wha... China is barely building nuclear power, in terms of their grid size. It peaked at 4.6% in 2021, now down to 4.3%. Compared to their renewable buildout the nuclear scheme is a token gesture to keep a nuclear industry alive if it would somehow end up delivering cheap electricity.
- boringg 10mo agoAgain they aren't the same product. Everyone always thinks power is only about $/kwh especially in hackernews. That is a strong proponent of the product but most definitely not all of it. Solar just does not work for large scale industrial uses cases (99.99% uptime). Even with massive energy storage to try and cover the edges. Its a great combo but not comparable.
- ViewTrick1002 10mo agoHow does your "large scale industrial use case" deal with 50% of the French nuclear fleet being offline? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-france.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-fr... Or 50% of the Swedish fleet two times this year being offline?
- realusername 10mo agoAt the same time it happened, the french solar was 92% offline and the french wind generation was 81% offline. Maybe we should get the opposite conclusion from this incident.
- ViewTrick1002 10mo agoBased on yearly average capacity factor? Since that incident storage has been scaling massively. How does a nuclear plant compete with zero marginal cost renewables? https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unraveling-of-the-Power-Grid-Monopoly.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unravel...
- kibwen 10mo agoIn absolute terms, China installs about as much nuclear as the US does solar. So I can only assume you agree with the statement "the US is bringing on an insane amount of solar energy"? Because, once again in absolute terms, the US's solar buildout is trounced by China's. The US is losing the energy race, and nuclear isn't going to save it. The US will run out of fissile material before China runs out of sunlight.
- boringg 10mo agoDepends if they start seeding clouds and doing geo engineering. Nuclear and solar are different energy products that are complementary. This solar vs nuclear narrative is basic and anti progress. For example china invested in solar so they can transition their energy system and get it paid by selling globally via subsidized cell manufacturing. I don't think they will be able to sell export their nuclear tech globally since it is essentially repackaged US tech. But yeah Im all for solar - more solar the better but it cant do firm power well.
- SoftTalker 10mo agoThere's really no risk of running out of fissile material. We can create it.
- philipkglass 10mo agoChina is the world's largest electricity producer and installs a lot of generating capacity of all types. For example, China has 29 nuclear reactors with 31 GW of capacity currently under construction: https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails.aspx?current=CN https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails....
- ViewTrick1002 10mo agoWhich leads to a shrinking nuclear share in their grid. It peaked at 4.6% in 2021, now down to 4.3%. Compared to their renewable buildout the nuclear scheme is a token gesture to keep a nuclear industry alive if it would somehow end up delivering cheap electricity. And of course to enable their military ambitions.
- remus 10mo agoI think that says more about their vast investment in other forms of power (particularly renewables) than it suggests a lack of investment in nuclear.
- fsh 10mo agoThe nuclear share dropping is a very clear signal about a lack of investment. Shows that nuclear energy is no longer cost competitive, even in a "low regulation" environment.
- edmundsauto 10mo agoIt shows that strategic investment matters and people are looking at more than a single cost metric. Nuclear is behind today, but that doesn't hold a promise it will remain true into the future unless you stop investing now. One armed bandit says explore as well as exploit. This delta you cited indicates the pendulum currently is more exploit than explore, but its not a static equation.
- Moldoteck 10mo ago
- Dylan16807 10mo ago1GW at noon, maybe 20% of that average. China's building a bunch of nuclear too.
- lostlogin 10mo agoAs mentioned numerous times in this thread, the percentage of their generation that is nuclear is falling.
- Dylan16807 10mo agoAnd yet they're still making a bunch more.
- cenamus 10mo agoSo only installing 73GW average capacity per year.
- Dylan16807 10mo agoYes. Meta's matching a whole month of China's solar growth, which I would call a lot.
- kibwen 10mo agoA whole month of China's growth... to come fully online by 2036.
- Dylan16807 10mo agoFor a single company that's half a percent of US GDP.
- malfist 10mo agoThat isn't how solar capacity is measured. It's not simply its maximum instantaneous power potential
- blondie9x 10mo agoRenewables and battery storage energy are unstoppable. Why take nuclear risk when you can get more than enough from solar, wind, and geothermal coupled with battery storage?
- XorNot 10mo agoGeothermal is essentially negligible to the grid so it's weird to include it. It's also so geographically constrained no one can choose to build it anyway.
- Moldoteck 10mo agolol, talking about risky nuclear investment and mentioning geothermal as ready to go alternative...
- lostlogin 10mo agoIt’s not easy to go. It’s going, and has been for many decades. Small scale where I am, when compared with hydro.
- dmurray 10mo ago1 GW in nameplate capacity of solar panels powers fewer data centres than 1 GW of nuclear. So it needs to be "this time next month".
- logicchains 10mo agoChina is a country with over a billion people, Meta is a private company with under 100k employees, it doesn't really make sense to compare the power output of their investments.
- ksec 10mo agoAnd they are still accelerating! They may actually reach 2GW per day by 2030.