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Tesla's Germany Sales Down 72% from Their Peak
- nikanj 10mo agoAnd this is with the Chinese cars handicapped by a double-digit punitive tariff ( https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/news/eu-commission-imposes-countervailing-duties-imports-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-china https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/news/eu-comm... )
- timmg 10mo agoArguably, China is subsidizing everything with a low currency, though. It may cancel out (or maybe more than cancel out) those tariffs.
- bigbadfeline 10mo ago> Arguably, China is subsidizing everything with a low currency Not really. "Subsidizing everything" is an oxymoron, if you subsidize some production it must be at the expense of other production that is providing the subsidies. > It may cancel out (or maybe more than cancel out) those tariffs. The opposite is true, tariffs reduce demand for Chinese products and thus for Chinese currency, which leads to lower yuan. If you want higher yuan, remove the tariffs.
- qcnguy 10mo agoThey subsidize manufacturing of certain specific industries, EV cars being one, at the cost of domestic consumption. Basically they steal Chinese people's savings and use it to give the rest of the world cheap cars.
- bigbadfeline 10mo ago> Basically they steal Chinese people's savings and use it to give the rest of the world cheap cars. One of the fundamental equations of macroeconomics: savings == investment The high speed of Chinese industrialization is made possible by the high level of savings which are fueled into investments, and that doesn't leave much room for subsidies. Moreover, even if subsidies do exist, they can be structured in a way that maximizes the bang for the buck of investments and in that light, they assure max productivity - that's not "stealing people's savings" - that's utilizing them in the best way possible for their real purpose: investment. I don't know why so many people without basic understanding of economics imagine themselves to be experts in it. Yes, mainstream economics is a mess but thinking that you'd fix it with a few shortcuts is hubris.
- qcnguy 10mo ago> One of the fundamental equations of macroeconomics: savings == investment That's not a "fundamental equation", that's merely the hope savers have. Sometimes the hope turns out to be futile and you get bank runs or financial crises. Chinese investments aren't investments as would be understood in a free system. They have private investors, but when the government subsidizes industries they're force feeding money to things private investors passed up (or they rig the market so private investors pile in even though it doesn't make sense to do so absent the manipulations). Think about it like this: imagine the government stole your savings and then gave it all to Sam Altman to spend on OpenAI. You might object on several grounds: 1. It's morally wrong to steal people's money. 2. OpenAI probably isn't a viable business. 3. OpenAI will use those savings to give random strangers free chats. 4. If OpenAI implodes or becomes a zombie firm that makes losses forever, the government won't hold itself accountable. 5. In the likely event of negative RoI you won't have any ability to retire anymore. It's obvious why this scheme is bad and why people who actually do understand economics want governments to stay well away from "investments" of any kind.
- PearlRiver 10mo agoAnd the US has a yearly deficit of what, 2 trillion? Glass stone houses etc etc.
- DonThomasitos 10mo agoThey peaked at a time where the competition‘s offering was still immature, partially even retrofitted combustion cars. Now the landscape has changed and TSLA lacks innovation. Personally, i still enjoy fanboy talk from first-gen Tesla drivers while they try to dream of a come back once Elon‘s wonder weapons finally arrive to turn the war.
- rainsford 10mo agoThe thing is Tesla probably has a solid enough foundation of smart people and technology to out compete other EV manufacturers, but they're not going to because they're saddled with today's version of Elon Musk instead of the Elon Musk of 15 years ago. His politics have made the brand radioactive to a lot of potential buyers and even for customers for whom that's not a deal breaker, his idea of innovation at Tesla now is stuff like the Cybertruck. That said, Tesla is still selling plenty of vehicles and anecdotally I see plenty of new ones driving around my American city, although more than a few have anti-Elon bumper stickers which is usually not a great sign for a brand. But I suspect a lot of that is momentum and the Elon problem is going to get worse and worse for the company as time goes on. His brain seems unlikely to get less melted over time and his politics and company direction seem unlikely to improve Tesla's prospects.
- qcnguy 10mo agoSeems they have self driving finally cracked, according to Karpathy. If they have finally managed it then they'll have a big advantage over the other manufacturers. Better late than never.
- tencentshill 10mo agoSelf Driving was a "solved problem" in 2016 too.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo agoAt what point does Tesla have to sell or shutter production?
- DonThomasitos 10mo agoSince they ship globally, never. At least not if it‘s ONLY Germany who‘s declining.
- thg 10mo agoThey're declining worldwide and since Musk got the climate change denier elected who did away with CAFE credits at the end of Q3, Tesla is now also no longer a profitable company.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago> Tesla is now also no longer a profitable company We won’t know this until the end of January [1]. (Tesla turned a $1.4bn profit in Q3.) [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-elon-musk-reveal-tesla-135000075.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-elon-musk-reveal-t...
- thg 10mo agoFor the last few quarters, Tesla was only profitable due to their selling CAFE credits. With those gone and their sales declining, it's all but certain that Tesla will post a loss for Q4, unless they resort to some very creative accounting tricks.
- rsynnott 10mo agoIt's not only Germany. One would wonder, at least, about the viability of their European production.
- lawn 10mo agoTesla is declining almost everywhere (except in Norway, for now).
- jacobgorm 10mo agoThe cars now look generic and driving them will brand you as either the type of person who gets all their news from alt right social media or someone who just can’t afford buying from a more established car maker.
- 0x262d 10mo agosorry, owning a tesla is a sign of being poor?
- hyperhello 10mo agoIn the sense that being overweight is a sign of being hungry.
- apothegm 10mo agoApparently the secondhand market is so bad (perhaps due to the whole thing where Tesla doesn’t permit wholly independent resale) that in some markets they’re some of the cheapest to be had that are qualified for ride share drivers. There’s a silly percentage of older teslas being used for that purpose in some cities.
- jacobgorm 10mo agoAt least in Denmark where I live, since Tesla started competing on cost a few years ago, and then the DOGE fiasco. It’s the car you get if you’re already a Tesla owner and hardcore believer, or just see a car as a means of transportation and buy purely on specs. The days when Teslas were status symbols are long gone. We can buy so many other interesting EVs here, for example I just had a friend who was an EV hater six months ago come by showing off his brand new Renault R5 today. That car has 10x more character than a TM3 and costs less even if he got it fully loaded. VAG has a very strong lineup of TMY competitors that combined are vastly outselling it, and so has Kia/Hyundai and Renault. Those with more money will go for BMW, Mercedes, Audi, or even Porsche. And then there are all the Chinese brands starting to make inroads. Most here see buying Chinese as less problematic than buying Musk.
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- mcntsh 10mo agoElectric cars in general don’t really make much sense in Germany. Most people live in apartments without access to personal chargers, combined with high electricity cost you end up not even saving money for the inconvenience.
- zeeZ 10mo ago30% of households living in single family homes is not insignificant. In the villages outside the large cities there's plenty of space to charge your car at home and an increasing amount of solar on the roof.
- tzs 10mo agoGermany has high gasoline cost. If what Google tells me is correct about current costs per kWh to charge at Tesla Superchargers there (0.40-0.70 Euro) and current gas prices there (1.70 Euro/liter) an EV charged at Superchargers would have about the same energy costs as an ICE car that gets 16 km/l if you charge at the more expensive Supercharges and an ICE car that gets 28 km/l if you charge at the less expensive Superchargers.
- moepstar 10mo agoOffpeak Supercharger use has even been reduced to around 25c in some places. I don’t think there’s one that costs 70c for members (I.e. Tesla owners or people paying 10€ per month).
- general1465 10mo ago> Superchargers would have about the same energy costs as an ICE car that gets 16 km/l if you charge at the more expensive Supercharges and an ICE car that gets 28 km/l if you charge at the less expensive Superchargers. And this is main problem. The thing is that most of people does not drive some big gas guzzling trucks like in USA, but hatchbacks like VW Golf which can run from 5l~8l/100km (20km/l ~ 12,5km/l) so it is very competitive with superchargers + it is much faster and more convenient than electric charger. There is nothing better than figuring out why my car does not want to talk to this charger when there is -5 deg C outside and I am losing touch in my fingerprints.
- xiphias2 10mo agoOne interesting thing for me is NVIDIA coming out with its reasoning model for self driving. If it works well, Tesla's strategy of keeping the car minimal/cheap to produce but with enough sensors and an upgradable hardware may become extremely useful as new techniques are coming to tackle the long tail of self-driving cases to handle. I'm sure Tesla will soon copy Nvidia and put a reasoning model in its cars as well.
- tim-tday 10mo agoI wonder if it’s still too soon for a company CEO to throw up a Nazi salute or two during an internationally televised event. <checks sales data> yep, still too soon. Hopefully it always will be.
- pseudohadamard 10mo agoAnd that sales would plummet in a country that had problems previously with people who gave Nazi salutes, who would have thought it?
- amai 10mo agoRemember: Nazi salutes are really bad marketing for your brand in Germany. You are 80 years too late for that.