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Look at a map, China doesn't have open access to the ocean. They have Japan, Taiwan in their way, the only help out they have is the South China Sea, but even t
by seanmcdirmid 10mo ago
Look at a map, China doesn't have open access to the ocean. They have Japan, Taiwan in their way, the only help out they have is the South China Sea, but even that is crowded and relies on Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia not being again them. They can only really get oil from the middle east through the straight of Malacca (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malacca_dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malacca_dilemma), which is really easy to cut off. It doesn't matter if you can build lots of ships if the US navy can take them out as they leave port into the open ocean.
So overland is their best option, but Russia is huge, lacks infrastructure (no oil pipelines in the far east), and anyways, isn't always China's friend. Western China abuts some Central asian countries with oil (and Iran in the middle), but again, not so friendly, lots of mountains to get trains through, and it is still far away from East China where the oil is actually needed.
So...they have lots of coal and are really pushing into renewables and nuclear. Nuclear is the kind of thing where you can stockpile a few thousand years worth of fuel with a few ships from Australia in peacetime. And if your economy relies more on electric trains and cars, you are going to be ok if someone cuts off or restricts your oil supply.
- palmotea 10mo ago> It doesn't matter if you can build lots of ships if the US navy can take them out as they leave port into the open ocean. If China can build lots of ships, it can build lots of warships. I'm skeptical the US Navy would have it that easy. Also, as the US Navy ships trying to enforce a blockade would be getting pelted by land-based anti-ship missiles.
- seanmcdirmid 10mo agoThe USA can also hammer them from nearby island based airbases. It isn’t easy to just saturate them with ships. Maybe if they can make breakthru with drones. Right now their best strategy is just be exposed less by making people drive EVs instead of gasoline vehicles. It also has other benefits like getting the rest of the world off of oil, and being able to sell the cars and clean energy production needed to do that, and also cleaner air. China wins 3 way here, so it’s really a very smart choice for them, and it gives them even more money to draw on to continue building a modern military.
- palmotea 10mo agoGiven the difference in manufacturing capacity and competency, I'd assume China would win a "hammer them with missiles" fight. Even if the US missiles were better quality, I'd assume China could make more, faster, and eventually the US would run out.
- seanmcdirmid 10mo agoI don’t think they are there yet, but they might be soon. When that happens, I hope they focus on peaceful business environments instead of using their clout more aggressively.