5 ms·

Now that the US has abdicated world leadership in so many areas, it's good to see China pushing the envelope.

by allears 10mo ago

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
They’re the first electrostate, and their success is our global success as their innovation and exports destroy the demand for fossil fuels globally. Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... (updated monthly) China’s Oil Hoarding Clouds Outlook for Slowing Demand Growth - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/china-oil-stockpiling-masks-outlook-for-slowing-demand-growth https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/china-oil... | https://archive.today/YLDHL https://archive.today/YLDHL - December 11th, 2025 > China’s oil demand growth is forecast to be 150,000 barrels a day next year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Energy Aspects was the most bullish, expecting daily growth at 320,000 barrels, mainly on rising petrochemical demand. Still, the prediction is a year-on-year drop. > “It’s an irreversible path,” said Ye Lin, vice president of oil markets at consultancy Rystad Energy, which also forecasts demand growth falling in 2026. “The market is now feeling the impact of China’s fast-growing EV fleet.” Rhodium Group: Electric Trucks and the Future of Chinese Oil Demand - https://rhg.com/research/electric-trucks-and-the-future-of-chinese-oil-demand/ https://rhg.com/research/electric-trucks-and-the-future-of-c... - July 1st, 2025 > Analysts have been discussing “peak oil” for decades. We’re hardly equipped to wade into that debate ourselves, even as Chinese demand will be a critical variable in future global oil demand. But the ongoing electrification of China’s vehicle fleet, especially in trucking, suggests long-term headwinds to diesel and gasoline demand. We estimate the total electric vehicle fleet is already displacing over 1 million barrels per day in implied oil demand—equivalent to roughly the daily oil production of Oman. That level is likely to rise by around 600,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months. (TLDR At current electrification rates, China is destroying ~1M barrels/day of oil demand every 24 months) HN Search: china electrostate - https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=china%20electrostate&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... HN Search: china renewables - https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=china%20renewables&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
- SoftTalker 10mo ago
  Would be humorous in retrospect if all the dire forecasts about "peak oil" turned out to be the opposite problem: collapse in demand for oil.
  - toomuchtodo 10mo ago
    Can you expound? A problem in demand for oil for whom (besides perhaps petro states that cannot meet their budgets at low global oil prices [1] [2])? [1] https://i.ibb.co/0jDyB6mX/Crude-Price-Forecasts-Are-Below-Levels-Needed-for-Budgets.png https://i.ibb.co/0jDyB6mX/Crude-Price-Forecasts-Are-Below-Le... [2] https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
    - SoftTalker 10mo ago
      Yeah, any major economic change can be destabilizing. Particularly if there are powerful incumbents who want to maintain the status quo. We fought a civil war over that sort of thing. So a "problem" in that sense, not that it wasn't the right thing to do.
  - jacquesm 10mo ago
    That would be one of the better outcomes because there are a number of things for which it is very hard to use other stuff as a substitute. Oil is way too precious to be burned up.
  - seanmcdirmid 10mo ago
    China doesn't have much oil. There dependency on oil is a huge weakness, and they are easily blockaded as well, making the problem of importing oil in wartime problematic as well. Their move away from oil is more national security even if it does help the environment.
    - palmotea 10mo ago
      > There dependency on oil is a huge weakness, and they are easily blockaded as well, making the problem of importing oil in wartime problematic as well. How are they "easily blockaded"? I thought their shipbuilding capacity exceeds that of the US, and their navy is now larger.
christkv 10mo ago
China is pushing this because they have an oil problem. They are deeply dependent on oil that ships via sea and any conflict could quickly starve them of access to oil. Thus a focus on trying to get some energy independence.

Now that the US has abdicated world leadership in so many areas, it's good to see China pushing the envelope.

by allears 10mo ago

Now that the US has abdicated world leadership in so many areas, it's good to see China pushing the envelope.

They’re the first electrostate, and their success is our global success as their innovation and exports destroy the demand for fossil fuels globally. Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... (updated monthly) China’s Oil Hoarding Clouds Outlook for Slowing Demand Growth - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/china-oil-stockpiling-masks-outlook-for-slowing-demand-growth https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/china-oil... | https://archive.today/YLDHL https://archive.today/YLDHL - December 11th, 2025 > China’s oil demand growth is forecast to be 150,000 barrels a day next year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Energy Aspects was the most bullish, expecting daily growth at 320,000 barrels, mainly on rising petrochemical demand. Still, the prediction is a year-on-year drop. > “It’s an irreversible path,” said Ye Lin, vice president of oil markets at consultancy Rystad Energy, which also forecasts demand growth falling in 2026. “The market is now feeling the impact of China’s fast-growing EV fleet.” Rhodium Group: Electric Trucks and the Future of Chinese Oil Demand - https://rhg.com/research/electric-trucks-and-the-future-of-chinese-oil-demand/ https://rhg.com/research/electric-trucks-and-the-future-of-c... - July 1st, 2025 > Analysts have been discussing “peak oil” for decades. We’re hardly equipped to wade into that debate ourselves, even as Chinese demand will be a critical variable in future global oil demand. But the ongoing electrification of China’s vehicle fleet, especially in trucking, suggests long-term headwinds to diesel and gasoline demand. We estimate the total electric vehicle fleet is already displacing over 1 million barrels per day in implied oil demand—equivalent to roughly the daily oil production of Oman. That level is likely to rise by around 600,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months. (TLDR At current electrification rates, China is destroying ~1M barrels/day of oil demand every 24 months) HN Search: china electrostate - https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=china%20electrostate&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... HN Search: china renewables - https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=china%20renewables&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

SoftTalker 10mo ago
Would be humorous in retrospect if all the dire forecasts about "peak oil" turned out to be the opposite problem: collapse in demand for oil.
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  Can you expound? A problem in demand for oil for whom (besides perhaps petro states that cannot meet their budgets at low global oil prices [1] [2])? [1] https://i.ibb.co/0jDyB6mX/Crude-Price-Forecasts-Are-Below-Levels-Needed-for-Budgets.png https://i.ibb.co/0jDyB6mX/Crude-Price-Forecasts-Are-Below-Le... [2] https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
  - SoftTalker 10mo ago
    Yeah, any major economic change can be destabilizing. Particularly if there are powerful incumbents who want to maintain the status quo. We fought a civil war over that sort of thing. So a "problem" in that sense, not that it wasn't the right thing to do.
- jacquesm 10mo ago
  That would be one of the better outcomes because there are a number of things for which it is very hard to use other stuff as a substitute. Oil is way too precious to be burned up.
- seanmcdirmid 10mo ago
  China doesn't have much oil. There dependency on oil is a huge weakness, and they are easily blockaded as well, making the problem of importing oil in wartime problematic as well. Their move away from oil is more national security even if it does help the environment.
  - palmotea 10mo ago
    > There dependency on oil is a huge weakness, and they are easily blockaded as well, making the problem of importing oil in wartime problematic as well. How are they "easily blockaded"? I thought their shipbuilding capacity exceeds that of the US, and their navy is now larger.

christkv 10mo ago

China is pushing this because they have an oil problem. They are deeply dependent on oil that ships via sea and any conflict could quickly starve them of access to oil. Thus a focus on trying to get some energy independence.