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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last
by jibe 9mo ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.
- talloaktrees 9mo agohonest question, because it's something I don't understand well. is it possible the quantity of job openings can mask the quality of jobs openings? if job openings at fast food restaurants goes up 1000% maybe this isn't positive
- nemomarx 9mo agoYou want to look at info broken down by sector and wages yeah. Look into "underemployment" for more
- marcosdumay 9mo agoYes, employment statistics rarely tell you anything about the quality of the jobs. And when they do tell something, it's the simplest information possible. But the statistics are selected in a way that if a society maintains a low headline unemployment for a long time, it's correlated to an increase in the quality of the jobs¹. The correlation is still not perfect, and authoritarian countries love to redefine the date so their absolute value changes. 1 - More clearly, a constant low unemployment correlates to a positive derivative in quality. And a constant high unemployment correlates to a negative derivative in quality.
- lotsofpulp 9mo agoCash is king. Look at change in income by quintile (or preferably decile, but I was too lazy to check mark all those and make a graph) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Q95B&height=490 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Q95B&heig...
- standeven 9mo agoShouldn’t job openings always trend upwards with increasing population?
- fred_is_fred 9mo agoIs that still true? I would guess net immigration is 0 or negative at this point.
- jldugger 9mo agoFred also has that answer: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM Growing up to an estimated 342 million. It also has an estimate for the working population (ages 25-54, so called "prime workers"): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00000060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00000060 Mostly flat from 2010-2021, with a recent uptick to 131 million. The discrepancy is likely due to the boomers aging out of the category, and a smaller generation coming in.
- jeffbee 9mo agoMaybe this isn't what you meant, but Millennials are the larger generation and they just finished aging into the workforce category.
- loeg 9mo agoThe youngest Millennials were 18 in 2014 and 22 in 2018. At this point, it's the smaller Gen Z entering the workforce, not Millennials.
- jeffbee 9mo agoLet me put it another way: the [20, 25) and [25, 30) age cohorts are larger than any cohort aged 50+ that might have recently aged out. So that "prime age" workforce is still growing.
- fellowniusmonk 9mo agoI don't understand how this chart can be true at all. Does this include ghost listings?
- rvz 9mo agoVery likely which is the point of the ghost jobs and gives the illusion that the OP is falling for. Companies (especially publicly traded ones) do not want analysts at banks or hedge funds using their careers page as a good / bad signal. Therefore, it is cope.
- jibe 9mo agoFake job listings, possibly, but doubt. Fake low unemployment too? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE OK, how about employment, if the jobs are fake, this should be down: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS "Cope" is ignoring every stat that disagree with what you want to believe. We aren't in a great economy, It looks like it is flattening, but not bad, not shrinking, and there is an abundance of jobs.
- zeroonetwothree 9mo agoIt comes from surveys based on this criteria: > JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions: 1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position. The position can be full-time or part-time, and it can be permanent, short-term, or seasonal, and 2. The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time, and 3. There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening.
- jeffbee 9mo agoThanks. It is very funny how young people perceive this market. Unemployment is basically lower than it has ever been and people are panicking. Prime age labor force participation rate near all-time record highs. The people are almost dangerously over-employed.
- xboxnolifes 9mo agoBecause it measures open job listing. All of the job listing i've apply to and never hear back from still exist too. Take from that what you will.
- jeffbee 9mo agoI can assure you that has happened before. I just find it amusing. A professional now 25-30 years old started their career in what was the most spectacularly overheated labor market of all time. Now it is very very slightly cooling off, still way hotter than historical norms, and there are many complaints. But it is all relative.
- NickC25 9mo agoI'm young-ish transitioning to middle age (36). The job market is AWFUL for my generation, and pretty much always has been since we entered the workforce. Unemployment might be low if you think that folks with advanced STEM degrees can go and get a part time gig at McDonald's. If you look at meaningful employment - where one can make enough to live near where they work, save a bit, pay food/rent, and spend a bit for their leisure or health, well....no we are not over-employed. We are in a death spiral.
- coryfklein 9mo agoThis has been called out by the Moody's Analytics economists in their podcast [0] for a while. The generally accepted explanation is that online job postings no longer map 1:1 to actual open positions at companies, ie many companies are not actually hiring despite having a listing for an open role. This has become common enough that it has gained it's own term: "ghost" postings/listings. [0] https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/podcasts/inside-economics.html https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/podcasts/inside-ec...
- jibe 9mo agoWe also have the unemployment numbers, and they are low. If job openings were largely ghost listings, and we were in a stealth recession, we'd see it in rising unemployment. Now unemployment HAS been creeping up, but still is low. If it hits 5% then I'd worry about a downturn.
- dexwiz 9mo agoDoes this 5% include people who have fallen out of the unemployed bucket into some sort of long term bucket? I know multiple people who have been looking for 6 months+. Not to mention underemployed.
- esbranson 9mo agoIt never has. The labor force participation rate for 25-54 year-olds is a better metric for such things.[1] Last time it was this high was 1990s through 2002. (Before that, it was never this high.) [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060
- jamesmontalvo3 9mo agoThe shape of that graph is roughly equivalent to the shape of labor force participation for women [1]. I don’t think that detracts from your point in regards to the last 20-30 years, but in regards to “before that it was never this high” I think it’s evident that the societal shift of women joining the workforce is the reason, not an improvement in the economy. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002
- falloutx 9mo agoArent a lot of job openings known to be resume collection bins and HRs keep them open so that company can say "Oh we created this many jobs but no was willing to work for us"
- hackable_sand 9mo agoThey're not