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How long before the government intentionally does something stupid so that a Prediction Market pays off? Probably won't happen actually, since they can just do
by elil17 9mo ago
How long before the government intentionally does something stupid so that a Prediction Market pays off?
Probably won't happen actually, since they can just do blatant insider trading on the stock market instead.
- bulbar 9mo agoAdditionally, they can leverage crypto which is much less regulated and has already been publicly exploited for personal benefit by Musk and Trump. But you don't become a Billionaire by having a risk averse "well, that's enough" mindset. I would think the biggest question is if it's worth exploiting poly market. Getting 400k out of such an event sounds as peanuts and I am not so sure that scales to 4m+.
- kelnos 9mo agoThe money involved in prediction markets at present isn't enough for governments to bother. $436k is a nice windfall for your average individual, but that's peanuts for anyone at a level to influence government actions.
- vintermann 9mo agoThe attitude of powerful politicians to money is more, "if I can get the milk, why should I keep a cow". You don't actually need billions in your bank account, there's not so much you need to spend it on anyway and it's more trouble than it's worth. The real power is in your network. You can move money to where you want it via that - even to yourself in the form of speaking fees, if you should need some change.
- senordevnyc 9mo agoYou should tell this to the current administration. They all seem to be lining their pockets.
- vintermann 9mo agoFair point. It's gotten worse lately. I wonder if it's because of doomerism (not necessarily unjustified): they maybe don't trust their support networks to be around much longer.
- perfmode 9mo agoThe Venezuela operation is estimated to have cost around $250,000,000. Big actions require a big payoff.