6 ms·
Supposing that it's done, one of the things I wander about is whether the EU and the Danes would understand that it's war and act accordingly-- i.e. would the s
by impossiblefork 9mo ago
Supposing that it's done, one of the things I wander about is whether the EU and the Danes would understand that it's war and act accordingly-- i.e. would the ships stop, would the transatlantic flights stop, would US firms in Europe get told that they're now independent EU subsidiaries unconnected with their parent companies, would Americans in the EU be interned, etc.-- i.e would people react in the normal way that one does when one is at war.
Obviously they'd have to, but I'm curious about whether they'd do it on the first day, or whether they'd sort of wonder around half-understanding "is this war?"
I've gotten an impression from the Danes through this whole affair that they're not getting it and I wonder how little people understand in general, whether war is so foreign to them that they can't react appropriately.
- rwmj 9mo agoImportant note that Greenland is not in the EU (although Denmark is), so likely the EU would at first think this is not their concern. (I think this would be a wrong thing to think, but that's how it would be diffused at first.)
- impossiblefork 9mo agoActually, no. There's also NATO, but I guess 42.7 is stronger than article 5.
- hdgvhicv 9mo agoSo when Denmark invokes article 5, nato members like the US will declare war on the US?
- impossiblefork 9mo agoThat sounds very silly. Obviously the US breaking its treaty obligations doesn't mean that everybody else will.
- dataflow 9mo agoArticle 5 does not, contrary to popular belief, require military response. Go read the wording. It basically requires members to do exactly what they would be already required to do: whatever they want.
- pera 9mo agoHere is a link for those like me who have not read Article 5 before, with additional comments: https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/collective-defence-and-article-5 https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/coll...
- embedding-shape 9mo ago> so likely the EU would at first think this is not their concern. No, the EU might not contain the top-of-the-top when it comes to people aware of what's going on, but not even EU is so dimwitted to brush aside an invasion of Greenland as "not our concern". Not to mention that Greenland is an autonomous part of Denmark, and Denmark is very much a part of the EU.
- dataflow 9mo ago> No, the EU might not contain the top-of-the-top when it comes to people aware of what's going on, but not even EU is so dimwitted to brush aside an invasion of Greenland as "not our concern". So far the French president is welcoming what happened in Venezuela. How do you imagine he feels about the implications for Greenland and Europe?
- jemmyw 9mo agoI believe he offered to station French troops in Greenland
- erxam 9mo agoThey're not dimwitted, they're next-level cowards. Big difference. They will gladly take whatever Trump gives to them because they're more afraid about actually standing up for something.
- embedding-shape 9mo ago> Obviously they'd have to, but I'm curious about whether they'd do it on the first day, or whether they'd sort of wonder around half-understanding "is this war?" It'll be a couple of days or weeks before actual realization happen, and it won't be because of the politicians, it'll be because of the massive demonstrations, protests and general strikes, that finally the governments will understand that something has to be done. > I wonder how little people understand in general, whether war is so foreign to them that they can't react appropriately. I think most of us got used to the idea that most others don't actually want war, and there is a lot of posturing going on. Wrongly, this was assumed of the current US administration too, which luckily changed really fast because of yesterday and previous actions. Europe has a long history of devastating wars, the US not so much, and I think Europe tries much harder to avoid violent conflicts than the US (duh), so when you have an ally knocking on your door, presenting threats, Europe kind of defaults to thinking it's posturing, but if boots actually land on Greenland (outside of the existing base), I think the winds will change relatively quickly.
- impossiblefork 9mo agoNo one does general strikes during wars, or really, strikes at all. At least we wouldn't here in Sweden. I don't know what the trigger for these kinds of things would be, in case people were slow on the uptake-- maybe sabotage by American citizens, something like that.
- hdgvhicv 9mo agoI don’t think they will. As you say Europe avoids war as much as it can - it’s not going to go to war over the latest salmi tactic (base expansion in an uninhabited part of Greenland, then maybe a new base, then blockading of the towns. Maybe Trump’s golf course in Scotland will sanctioned, that’s as far as it will go The interacting question is how many bodies coming back under flags will it take before the american public say “enough”.
- FreezerburnV 9mo agoLegitimately: Could they actually do this? The EU still has so many dependencies on tech provided by the US that could be turned off pretty much immediately which would shut the country down. How are they supposed to fight back if their government stops because Microsoft shuts down their Azure accounts, Outlook, Teams, etc.?
- impossiblefork 9mo agoI mean, war is war. You work on paper if you have to. So of course we could.
- embedding-shape 9mo agoSame goes the other way, the US has dependencies on Europe when it comes to various technologies, that would stop immediately if the US decides to be violent towards its allies. I'm sure Europe could survive without Microsoft Office, what would the US do if they stop being able to get machine tooling since that industry all but disappeared in the US, and the US doesn't have any allies left?
- riffraff 9mo agoRussia has been theoretically cut off from advanced machinery for years, the west just started selling stuff to central asian countries who resell it to Russia and we all behave as if it's normal.
- TitaRusell 9mo agoIt is normal because this has happened with every sanction. Russia is now forced to pay smugglers marked up prices for their stuff. The whole thing has been a war of attrition from day one. What Putin can't buy is soldiers. Every day another 1000 casualties.
- elektor 9mo agoPutin can and has bought soldiers (Wagner Group and North Koreans).
- tim333 9mo agoMy guess is the Danes and EU would complain but not go to war and hope the thing gets reversed when the current president leaves office.
- hdgvhicv 9mo agoHad America gone about it in another way and explained to its nato allies it needed to build more bases in Greenland it would have been done with barely a headline. But that’s not what Trump wants.
- microtonal 9mo agoZero sum games. If Greenland is independent, it would also get a percentage of the natural resources it extracts, which is money that the US oligarchy does not get.
- ffsm8 9mo agoIsn't it If he leaves office at this point, or does it only sound like it from Europe? They've been testing the waters for way to frequently with seemingly very little pushback... to me, a third presidency is basically guaranteed at this point - one way or another. If they need to falsify the results they'll rationalize it via the "stolen election" If I was a gambling man I'd have already spend a few thousand on polymarket. I'm not though, so it'll abstain
- oliwarner 9mo agoHe's old and overweight. His presidency will end "one way or another".
- csa 9mo ago> Isn't it If he leaves office at this point, or does it only sound like it from Europe? While I appreciate your sentiment, we really need to stop with this specific type of pearl clutching. The current president’s mental and physical condition is deteriorating rapidly. He will be lucky to make it through the current term in a functional state. Adding another number of years to his time in office would mean that he almost literally would need to be propped up by his caretakers. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? No, and it’s not even close, imho. There is plenty of commentary that can be made about the political machine behind him, but let’s not project that to the dotard currently in office.
- librasteve 9mo agoWell UK is out on day one since we cannot fly F35s without signed sw updates to load the mission profile. Not that UK, France, EU have a hope of fighting independently of US since Suez anyway.
- raffael_de 9mo agoNot necessarily. Such an event would be a geopolitical reenactment of the Danish folk tale "The Emperor's New Clothes". Turns out the emperor isn't just naked he's still living in his parent's basement. And the emperor here is Europe and the parents are the US. Why would I as a German support a war over an island that has not just been criminally neglected by a supposed alley (Denmark), it is even politically and economically irrelevant (as of now). And not just that ... "we" have been begging the US to keep protecting us and for them Greenland is in that respect very much serving a purpose in line with that very military support. Europe is naked as it stands. I don't like it. But that's just how it is.
- impossiblefork 9mo agoI find your analogy to be extremely strange. We are extremely well-armed. Greenland has also not been neglected in any way. With regard to why you should care about Greenland, you've signed an agreement to do it, you are after all in NATO. There has indeed been co-operation in protecting Greenland and this is very reasonable considering that the US has a presence there in the form of their military bases. I don't see this co-operation as begging.
- raffael_de 9mo agoThe disrespectful, colonialist treatment of Greenland by Denmark is sufficiently well documented. And if you think Europe stands a chance in a war against US then I don't even know what to say anymore ...
- anthk 9mo agoThen you are the deluded one, because Europe has nukes and if Europe dissapears under US nukes, California turns into a big crater and NYC ceases to exist. Everyone - I repeat, everyone - losses. USA, Europe, China, the rest of the world. Everything lost like the Bronze Age, but far worse.
- verzali 9mo agoEurope has nuclear arms. Even Germay could, if the could get off their arses and get serious about defense.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]