4 ms·

First off, I'll give you credit for at least trying to justify this, it puts you ahead of the administration that can't even bother. Second off, only #3b above

by woooooo 9mo ago

First off, I'll give you credit for at least trying to justify this, it puts you ahead of the administration that can't even bother. Second off, only #3b above (geopolitics) could possibly count at all. We support dozens of dictators, don't give a darn about their people as long as it's geopolitically useful. So I've been conditioned to assume it's bullshit when someone says "we're doing it for the people there". Third, and to your #3.. it's Venezuela. No disrespect to the people there but it's not exactly the lynchpin of international relations. Is this really worth it? For some crude which is really high in sulfur and not even that important given fracking? Even if I'm a Henry Kissinger psychopath, this still doesn't make sense.

aglavine 9mo ago
I am not saying USA did this for the people. I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this and most people here aren't concerned about this at all. They just want to talk about their pet political point. About what are the reasons behind this I (and most people commenting here) can only have educated guess, but I wouldn't discard so easily to weaken cartels as a reason. It is the third (Cuba and Nicaragua the others) Country they got to totally control and the most important and they are powerful and organized enough to keep spreading, and they are supported by China.
- woooooo 9mo ago
  Thanks for engaging in good faith, but you know that China is selling more cars to all of Latin America than us currently, right? Will this engagement deepen Latin American trust and respect for the US or the opposite? China makes it very clear that they do not give a shit about politics and just want to do good business, they're deepening ties that way. What's our plan? Invade random countries and tell them they better not cross us? How long does that work?
  - aglavine 9mo ago
    Full diaclosure: I am from Argentina. I interact daily with exilees from Venezuela. They are coworkers, they drive my Uber. They are totally happy about this. About trust and respect, I don't see any change. Leftist will keep their mantra and Normal people will mind their business. About the 'master plan'. No one commenting here really knows. As I mentioned to avoid criminal cartels controlling three countries and spreading it is not something I would discard. Imagine if they get nukes. Or they can start to systematicallly buy politicians in USA, as they do in Mexico.
- lukan 9mo ago
  "I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this" How do you know that? What I know anecdotically from other persons from latin america is, they are happy for Maduro to be gone, but fear of venezuela becoming a US colony.
  - aglavine 9mo ago
    Maduro lost elections. 8 millions of exilees can't love him. And I interact daily with exilees. You can disagree. It is hard to believe narco dictators have too much love from people anyway.
    - lukan 9mo ago
      No doubt that exilees do not love him. But it was about a "wide majority" who hold that opinion. There are lots of russian refugees for example as well and they are not a fan of Putin. But back at home he still seems to enjoy majority support in a broad sense at least and I have no inside knowledge into Venezuela at all.
      - aglavine 9mo ago
        I don't know about Russia, maybe their economy didn't collapse as Venezuela's did. But I really don't know.
    - xg15 9mo ago
      This is a bit like saying "everyone hates the regime in Cuba. I've talked with lots of Cubans in Miami and they all say that".
      - aglavine 9mo ago
        We are talking about 20% of the population here. A massive wave. They would be impoverished, imprisoned or dead have they not fled. Hard to believe people who stayed are happy about this. But check the news, the web, talk to people objectively.I can be wrong, but I think the evidence is overwhelming, statistically speaking.Check for yourself.
- CamperBob2 9mo ago
  It's not clear what this is really about. Trump doesn't care about the people of the US, much less Venezuela, but there seems to be a widespread consensus that Maduro was a nogoodnik who won't be missed. I have no idea what the mood on the ground really is. As for drugs, if Trump cared about drugs, he wouldn't pardon so many drug kingpins. Some say this has to do with asserting control over China's oil imports, but according to https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/file-uploads/Where%20Does%20China%20Get%20Its%20Oil_%20-%20The%20Wire%20China.pdf https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/fi... and other sources, Venezuela barely makes it into the list of China's top 10 suppliers. So while China is indeed Venezuela's best customer, this argument doesn't seem persuasive unless I'm missing something. Venezuela's next-highest volume customer is the US itself.
  - aglavine 9mo ago
    I agree it is not clear. My guess is drugs, not because Trump cares, but because they had become too powerful, controlling Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, as well as a wide net of politicians.
  - armenarmen 9mo ago
    one which concerns me is that the US cutting oil exports to Japan is the reason Pearl Harbor was bombed.
speakfreely 9mo ago
> Is this really worth it? For some crude which is really high in sulfur and not even that important given fracking? The US doesn't need their oil. It's about stopping China from getting it.
- yunnpp 9mo ago
  I am still confused about this. Is the goal for US companies to extract Venezuelan oil, or is it to suppress Venezuelan oil exports altogether? Or are both goals orthogonal?
  - aglavine 9mo ago
    I don't think oil has something to do with this. As I have mentioned I think the main reason is the cartel has become too powerful and menacing, controlling three countries and expanding.
    - yunnpp 9mo ago
      This argument doesn't stand a chance. The US military and intelligence is far outmatched. The drugs war is just a pretext.
MisterMower 9mo ago
Increasing the supply of oil will lower its price. Bringing production in Venezuela back online will have this effect. Historically they have produced three million barrels per day, currently that number is closer to one million. Russia is funding its war in Ukraine with profits on thier oil production. All else being equal, this makes it harder for them to keep doing that. They reportedly spent $6 billion on air defense systems in Venezuela, not for no reason. Lower oil prices also reduce China’s dependence on Russia for energy. Reducing the incentive for those two countries two cooperate would be in US interests. Energy is fungible and lower oil prices will help reduce the cost to operate AI data centers. On the margin it will improve their profitability and reduce public backlash about rising electricity prices in the US. A large portion of the migrant crisis in the US has been driven by Venezuelan refugees fleeing Maduro’s gross mismanagement of the country. If the subsequent government can bring prosperity back to the country it also reduces illegal immigration in the US, something the current US administration clearly supports. Lots of positive things could result here and you don’t have to be a “Kissinger psychopath” to imagine them and hope they materialize.
- doug_durham 9mo ago
  Ok, but at the cost of American freedoms? We are a country ruled by laws not people. Everything about this operation violated this principle. Are you willing to give up your freedoms in order to create cheap oil so that your scenarios play out? My ancestors didn't die on the battlefield to support such things.
  - aglavine 9mo ago
    Venezuela was not a sovereign state, it wasn't people's will at all to have Maduro as head of state, rather the opposite is true.
  - MisterMower 9mo ago
    What freedoms did you lose today? The Patriot Act was signed into law two decades ago. I can’t remember the last time Congress passed a declaration of war prior to the President engaging in military action. I’m sympathetic to your sentiment but that train left the station likely before you were born.
dboreham 9mo ago
> ahead of the administration that can't even bother It's possible they have tried to justify, but via Fox News and Truth Social. Neither of which you and I read, I presume.

by woooooo 9mo ago

aglavine 9mo ago

I am not saying USA did this for the people. I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this and most people here aren't concerned about this at all. They just want to talk about their pet political point. About what are the reasons behind this I (and most people commenting here) can only have educated guess, but I wouldn't discard so easily to weaken cartels as a reason. It is the third (Cuba and Nicaragua the others) Country they got to totally control and the most important and they are powerful and organized enough to keep spreading, and they are supported by China.

woooooo 9mo ago
Thanks for engaging in good faith, but you know that China is selling more cars to all of Latin America than us currently, right? Will this engagement deepen Latin American trust and respect for the US or the opposite? China makes it very clear that they do not give a shit about politics and just want to do good business, they're deepening ties that way. What's our plan? Invade random countries and tell them they better not cross us? How long does that work?
- aglavine 9mo ago
  Full diaclosure: I am from Argentina. I interact daily with exilees from Venezuela. They are coworkers, they drive my Uber. They are totally happy about this. About trust and respect, I don't see any change. Leftist will keep their mantra and Normal people will mind their business. About the 'master plan'. No one commenting here really knows. As I mentioned to avoid criminal cartels controlling three countries and spreading it is not something I would discard. Imagine if they get nukes. Or they can start to systematicallly buy politicians in USA, as they do in Mexico.
lukan 9mo ago
"I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this" How do you know that? What I know anecdotically from other persons from latin america is, they are happy for Maduro to be gone, but fear of venezuela becoming a US colony.
- aglavine 9mo ago
  Maduro lost elections. 8 millions of exilees can't love him. And I interact daily with exilees. You can disagree. It is hard to believe narco dictators have too much love from people anyway.
  - lukan 9mo ago
    No doubt that exilees do not love him. But it was about a "wide majority" who hold that opinion. There are lots of russian refugees for example as well and they are not a fan of Putin. But back at home he still seems to enjoy majority support in a broad sense at least and I have no inside knowledge into Venezuela at all.
    - aglavine 9mo ago
      I don't know about Russia, maybe their economy didn't collapse as Venezuela's did. But I really don't know.
  - xg15 9mo ago
    This is a bit like saying "everyone hates the regime in Cuba. I've talked with lots of Cubans in Miami and they all say that".
    - aglavine 9mo ago
      We are talking about 20% of the population here. A massive wave. They would be impoverished, imprisoned or dead have they not fled. Hard to believe people who stayed are happy about this. But check the news, the web, talk to people objectively.I can be wrong, but I think the evidence is overwhelming, statistically speaking.Check for yourself.
CamperBob2 9mo ago
It's not clear what this is really about. Trump doesn't care about the people of the US, much less Venezuela, but there seems to be a widespread consensus that Maduro was a nogoodnik who won't be missed. I have no idea what the mood on the ground really is. As for drugs, if Trump cared about drugs, he wouldn't pardon so many drug kingpins. Some say this has to do with asserting control over China's oil imports, but according to https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/file-uploads/Where%20Does%20China%20Get%20Its%20Oil_%20-%20The%20Wire%20China.pdf https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/fi... and other sources, Venezuela barely makes it into the list of China's top 10 suppliers. So while China is indeed Venezuela's best customer, this argument doesn't seem persuasive unless I'm missing something. Venezuela's next-highest volume customer is the US itself.
- aglavine 9mo ago
  I agree it is not clear. My guess is drugs, not because Trump cares, but because they had become too powerful, controlling Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, as well as a wide net of politicians.
- armenarmen 9mo ago
  one which concerns me is that the US cutting oil exports to Japan is the reason Pearl Harbor was bombed.

speakfreely 9mo ago

> Is this really worth it? For some crude which is really high in sulfur and not even that important given fracking? The US doesn't need their oil. It's about stopping China from getting it.

yunnpp 9mo ago
I am still confused about this. Is the goal for US companies to extract Venezuelan oil, or is it to suppress Venezuelan oil exports altogether? Or are both goals orthogonal?
- aglavine 9mo ago
  I don't think oil has something to do with this. As I have mentioned I think the main reason is the cartel has become too powerful and menacing, controlling three countries and expanding.
  - yunnpp 9mo ago
    This argument doesn't stand a chance. The US military and intelligence is far outmatched. The drugs war is just a pretext.

MisterMower 9mo ago

Increasing the supply of oil will lower its price. Bringing production in Venezuela back online will have this effect. Historically they have produced three million barrels per day, currently that number is closer to one million. Russia is funding its war in Ukraine with profits on thier oil production. All else being equal, this makes it harder for them to keep doing that. They reportedly spent $6 billion on air defense systems in Venezuela, not for no reason. Lower oil prices also reduce China’s dependence on Russia for energy. Reducing the incentive for those two countries two cooperate would be in US interests. Energy is fungible and lower oil prices will help reduce the cost to operate AI data centers. On the margin it will improve their profitability and reduce public backlash about rising electricity prices in the US. A large portion of the migrant crisis in the US has been driven by Venezuelan refugees fleeing Maduro’s gross mismanagement of the country. If the subsequent government can bring prosperity back to the country it also reduces illegal immigration in the US, something the current US administration clearly supports. Lots of positive things could result here and you don’t have to be a “Kissinger psychopath” to imagine them and hope they materialize.

doug_durham 9mo ago
Ok, but at the cost of American freedoms? We are a country ruled by laws not people. Everything about this operation violated this principle. Are you willing to give up your freedoms in order to create cheap oil so that your scenarios play out? My ancestors didn't die on the battlefield to support such things.
- aglavine 9mo ago
  Venezuela was not a sovereign state, it wasn't people's will at all to have Maduro as head of state, rather the opposite is true.
- MisterMower 9mo ago
  What freedoms did you lose today? The Patriot Act was signed into law two decades ago. I can’t remember the last time Congress passed a declaration of war prior to the President engaging in military action. I’m sympathetic to your sentiment but that train left the station likely before you were born.

dboreham 9mo ago

> ahead of the administration that can't even bother It's possible they have tried to justify, but via Fox News and Truth Social. Neither of which you and I read, I presume.