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Prediction: the regime will not fall. This will destabilize the country further, not so much the regime itself. There will be a decrease in oil production, mar
by Earl_Arthur 9mo ago
Prediction: the regime will not fall. This will destabilize the country further, not so much the regime itself.
There will be a decrease in oil production, marginally boosting world prices. What's probably being taken out right now is the regime's ability to react in any meaningful way to the oil embargo.
It will also allow Maduro to throw his hands in the air and blame the US for all of VZLA's ills going forward. More poverty, more suffering, more migration.
- biggestlou 9mo ago[flagged]
- varjag 9mo agoHere's another prediction: the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of Venezuelans. Trump admin (which was hugely insecure about its actual strength) will be bolstered and do some really really stupid thing next.
- RealityVoid 9mo agoI tend to agree with you. Venezuela is no beacon of freedom or prosperity and I think Maduro might prove even less popular than thought.
- throwaway85825 9mo agoMaduro is very unpopular but a US occupation would be even less popular.
- SideburnsOfDoom 9mo agoThere is always a "rally round the flag" effect, to support the country - the country, not the leader - in the face of a foreign attack. It's not "Support Maduro or support USA". Those are not the options.
- verzali 9mo agoWhen was the last time America successfully conducted a regime change via military force? One that didn't result in a bloody civil war and hundreds of thousands dead?
- keiferski 9mo agoPanama and Grenada probably fit that bill. The question is whether the Venezuelan situation is more like those two, or more like Vietnam / Iraq / Afghanistan.
- SideburnsOfDoom 9mo ago> the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of $CountryInvaded When have we not heard this line? When has it even been true? We always hear it, it's never true.
- varjag 9mo agoYou are free to bookmark this and rub it in my face later.
- SideburnsOfDoom 9mo agoSure, though your prediction of "will prove breezy and popular" is something that takes years, or even a couple of decades to play out. e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq.
- varjag 9mo agoBe serious. Did you really scratch your head for years figuring if it was popular in Afghanistan and Iraq?
- SideburnsOfDoom 9mo agoI am being serious, but I don't know if you are. Look at the long-term outcomes in those countries, how it played out.
- varjag 9mo agoIt develops pretty quick now. If you follow the news you already start to glimpse that I was spot on and it sounds like you try to move the goalposts now. Don't worry tho I'll take the high road.
- SideburnsOfDoom 9mo agoI'll repeat, we don't know the long term outcome yet. Years not hours are what matters. The track record is very poor. > you try to move the goalposts now I do not agree. Long-term outcomes are what matter to the ordinary people in these countries, regardless of what scores points for internet posters today. Guessing outcomes today is very premature. > I was spot on ... I'll take the high road. What a smug and self-contradicting statement. This is no longer a serious conversation, have a good day.
- energy123 9mo agoAre you saying the US will decide not to take out the senior leadership of the regime? Or are you saying that the regime will survive even if they do that?
- Earl_Arthur 9mo agoEither, really. Just a prediction, not clairvoyance.
- Sabinus 9mo agoWhat factors are you considering when forming your prediction?
- Earl_Arthur 9mo agoWell, what I know about Venezuela, and the fact that the operation so far has targeted oil production capacity. In recent history, every cornered dictator with proven staying power has not gone quietly or quickly.
- antonymoose 9mo agoIf they have any brains they’ll keep the functionaries and install their own puppet as the new head, likely Machado. For some reason we wisely keep the machineries of government in place in Japan and Germany post-war and threw that lesson out the window in Iraq. Always boggles my mind, how the CPA ran things immediately into the ground.
- techterrier 9mo agothere's footage of a half dozen US Chinooks over Caracas with no resistance being put up at all. Possbly a General has acquiesced to a US led coup. This isnt just lobbing missiles.
- Earl_Arthur 9mo agoIf it was strictly a decapitation attack there probably wouldn't be multiple sites involved. They're claiming four states were targeted.
- techterrier 9mo agoyou dont send the choppers in until the air defence is neutered. What do you think a few dozen specaial forces are doing in Caracas?
- Earl_Arthur 9mo agoI don't presume to say, other than there can be a lot of possible missions other than decapitation. Their army has ~120K and they've been expecting stuff to go down for months. This "deal with a general" you're suggesting is very hand-wavey.
- techterrier 9mo agooh for sure, such is the nature of speculating on these things as they are occuring. As you say, this check has been in the mail for a while, so how are vulernable helicopters flying over caracas without any resistance? One dude with a MANPADS could take them down. Decapitation is also the only aparent strategic goal of this operation, so it's hardly far fetched to suggest they going for 'one and done'. Anyway, beers on me if I'm wrong :)
- throwaway85825 9mo agoUsually manpads are locked in an armory and it takes an hour to find the guy with the key.
- raverbashing 9mo agoMaduro is a coward and has no military power People here saying it's "unjustified" should go and talk to a displaced Venezuelan.
- girvo 9mo agoMaduro is a piece of shit. But a military invasion of another country to commit regime change is literally what Russia tried to do to Ukraine. America has blood on it's hands yet again. EDIT: If the reports are true that Maduro has been captured and the fighting stops, then that's the best resolution one could hope out of this horrible situation. I pray for the Venezuelan people.
- nospice 9mo agoRight, and that's what the Allies did in Germany in 1945. I don't think it's helpful to paint everything with such a broad brush. Russia is trying to annex Ukraine. They took part of it in 2014, then came back for more, and then organized sham annexation referendums in the regions they did control. Whatever the US is trying to achieve in Venezuela, it's probably not that. All war is deplorable, but some lead to good outcomes and some to bad ones.
- girvo 9mo ago> Russia is trying to annex Ukraine And to start with they were trying to achieve this through regime change via a "surgical" (by their standards) strike on the government and capital. That failed. America is doing this explicitly to take control of Venezuela's resources. It's no different.
- swiftcoder 9mo ago> Whatever the US is trying to achieve in Venezuela, it's probably not that Presumably we're only trying to annex their oil reserves
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- wslh 9mo agoUS is an expert in trying to artificially build democracies.
- tromp 9mo agoThey're more expert at demolishing democracy right now, their very own.
- cyberax 9mo agoPrediction: nobody is going to lift a finger to defend Maduro. Unless he already has escaped, his cronies will sell him out. But afterwards, there's going to be a free-for-all struggle between ACTUAL cartels. That will be indistinguishable ftom a civil war.
- simianparrot 9mo agoAlready captured. Press conference in 5 hours.
- schmuckonwheels 9mo agoWell they just captured Maduro and flew him out of the country, so yes the regime quite literally did just fall minutes after you created your throwaway account to post this.
- energy123 9mo agoPay attention to who is generating the wrong predictions, and what their other opinions are on tangential questions.
- ogogmad 9mo agoIt's a game of probabilities. Even if it does turn out fine, similar things in recent history have turned out very poorly*. But to be honest, I hate Maduro anyway, so I'd be happy for this to turn out well. * - Claims 2 years ago about the removal of Hamas; assassinations of militia leaders leading to peace
- energy123 9mo ago> assassinations of militia leaders leading to peace The purpose of the assassinations is security, not peace. Peace is a bilateral process and it does confer security, but if it's not on the table then you can't force the issue unilaterally.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- lukan 9mo agoYes. And some russian sources seem very understanding of the situation. I strongly believe Trump made a Deal with Putin. South america belongs to him. Putin can have europe. Otherwise there would have been american aircraft shot down with russian tech. Or really any kind of support except empty words.
- 9mo ago
- celeryd 9mo agoIt's a country not a ticker symbol. VE is proper but even VZ would be better.
- 512 9mo agoVZLA is the abbreviation Venezuelans use
- js4ever 9mo agoI wonder who is financing your efforts with throwaway accounts? Iran? Russia? China? or is it from drug cartels?
- _heimdall 9mo agoA military coup seems like a decent possibility here IMO. The Venezuelan opposition leader was extracted and moved to Europe and I assume the US wants to install her. Maybe that is more likely, but a military takeover before the US can install whatever puppet government they're hoping for.
- abigail95 9mo agoshow positions or go away; skin in the game
- culi 9mo agoNone of this makes sense. Venezuela has faced crippling sanctions from the US since 2017 that have not allowed it to sell to any western nation. Only China, Russia, and Cuba are potential customers for it. I highly doubt this will have any immediate effect on oil prices. It is also crude oil which only a handful of countries are capable of processing (the US probably being the best equipped) US corporations will be brought in to exploit oil the same way they did in Iraq where they actually had to amend the constitution to allow for foreign corporations in.
- m3kw9 9mo agowhen you predict something you state a time line.