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China has all this manufacturing capacity, and no market to sell. Really the only option they have is to swap the products to military ones so that they can cr
by whatever1 10mo ago
China has all this manufacturing capacity, and no market to sell.
Really the only option they have is to swap the products to military ones so that they can create the global markets they need.
It’s gonna be a bumpy decade.
- dalyons 10mo agoHrm? They can and are selling to the rest of the world (except NA and Europe)
- stavros 10mo agoThey're selling in Europe, plenty of BYD cars in Greece.
- dalyons 10mo agoGas or ev? I thought the EVs were tariffed high
- bryanlarsen 10mo agoIs 17% high?
- dalyons 10mo agoI was under the impression that it was %30+, guess I’m wrong
- bryanlarsen 10mo agoIt varies by company. The companies that participated in the audit generally got hit with a 17% tariff, the ones that didn't, 34%. (oversimplified). Either way I phrased my original comment as a question as I'm not sure whether to consider 17% or 34% as "high". It depends on perspective. Both are painful, but neither are high enough to completely kill trade, like 100%+ tariffs do.
- stavros 10mo agoEV, it even had a 10k EUR subsidy.
- embedding-shape 10mo agoHybrids and EV, at least in Spain both are quickly becoming popular, even with tariffs. Probably helps that our government still gives people ~3K EUR if they go electric.
- fooker 10mo agoJust because you don't see these in the US doesn't mean they aren't elsewhere in the first world countries.
- a_victorp 10mo agoYeah, there are some theories that state that WWI and WWII started because of over production and the search for new markets (I saw a video recently mentioning some books, including one from Lenin), so you might be in to something
- bilbo0s 10mo ago>and no market to sell Uh.. If that's the case, then someone needs to tell that to all the people buying Chinese cars man.
- whatever1 10mo agoThe capacity they have far exceeds the sales. A lot of Chinese car companies will have to go bankrupt to balance supply and demand.
- rswail 10mo agoIn exactly the same way as conglomeration occurred in the US car industry and across Europe during the 20th century.
- misiti3780 10mo agoread this article, it explains the situation well: https://open.substack.com/pub/crosscurrents28/p/chinas-broken-balance-sheet-why-i https://open.substack.com/pub/crosscurrents28/p/chinas-broke...
- rswail 10mo agoThey have their own internal market, which now has a middle class equal in size to the entire US population. They have all of Asia, with a market of another ~2B, and a completely undeveloped market in Africa of another 1B people. That's part of what the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative is, an industrial policy to establish trade links and infrastructure dependencies across the world that uses Chinese direct FDI and industrial policy to establish new markets for their own industries. Which is exactly the same policy that the US adopted as part of the Marshall Plan and its use (up until 2025) of soft power to promote US FDI across the world. It's the US that is dependent on a defense industry and foreign sales for its industrial capacity. That's why the US defense budget is 50% of the total and over USD1T/year and is why the US is demanding that NATO nations buy US defense equipment.
- whatever1 10mo ago`They have all of Asia, with a market of another ~2B, and a completely undeveloped market in Africa of another 1B people.` This is not the market size. Maybe 1% of it. India median income is $300/month. African income is less than $100/month. You cannot sell EVs, drones and foldable phones there. But you could convince their govs to buy your fancy defense drones.