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BYD owns their own fleet of car carriers for export, with the capacity to have ~30k vehicles shipping to other markets at any one time on their vessels. From th

BYD owns their own fleet of car carriers for export, with the capacity to have ~30k vehicles shipping to other markets at any one time on their vessels. From this piece: > BYD Deliveries outside of China hit 1.05 million in 2025. The company has set a goal to expand overseas sales to between 1.5 million to 1.6 million units in 2026, according to a Citigroup Inc. report in November that cited a meeting with BYD management. Edit: The debt is irrelevant, China isn’t America. They’ll nationalize and inflate away any institutional debt or wipe it out, but still have a third of the world’s manufacturing capacity. Tesla exists on vibes, Chinese EV makers build, for example. jmyeet’s comment mostly nails this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46456020 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46456020 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46424124 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46424124 (citations) (global light vehicle TAM is ~90M units/year, and Chinese EV automakers are going to soak the market with their production capacity)

faitswulff 11mo ago
> They’ll nationalize and inflate away any institutional debt or wipe it out This is just the reverse, actually, China isn’t afraid to go so far as to jail CEOs. There is no such thing as too big to fail in China, and all the Chinese domestic companies know it. The bailout playbook is a western thing.
- toomuchtodo 11mo ago
  China has been performing debt swaps with local governments to clean up their balance sheets [1], so used as an example. Agree with all of your comment. People make the mistake that China plays by artificial US capital market rules around profit and debt; they do not. They optimize for physical world success, not line go up. [1] Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-economy-can-1-6-trillion-help-solve-xi-s-hidden-debt-problem https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-eco... | https://archive.today/HsaHV https://archive.today/HsaHV - April 16th, 2025
  - faitswulff 11mo ago
    Ah, I think I get it. Are you saying that regardless of BYD’s continued existence, China will still have 1/3 of the world’s manufacturing capacity?
    - toomuchtodo 11mo ago
      Yes, exactly. Just as in the US, when an enterprise gets wiped out and recapitalized, all of the physical assets remain. In China’s case, they are the backstop of last resort, and will always recapitalize according to their nation state planning and target outcomes. They allow companies to operate the assets as long as the Chinese government is willing to allow it, but they remain assets of China.
      - truetraveller 11mo ago
        So, essentially, there is a root company called China, Inc. Correct?
        tifan 11mo ago
        Exactly. Not strictly China Inc, but SASAC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_Assets_Supervision_and_Administration_Commission_of_the_State_Council https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_Assets_Supervision...)
  - refurb 11mo ago
    There is no free lunch. Debt in China is still owed to someone. Printing money creates inflation. Oversupply leads to deflation. It’s why China’s real estate company debt is dragging down the economy as a whole. It’s all connected. China very much is held to the same rules as the US, especially as it engages with the global financial system. Which is why they are in so much trouble. The economy is anemic. The last stimulus package barely made a difference. Debt overhang remains.
    - amrocha 11mo ago
- victorbjorklund 11mo ago
  They only jail the people that upset the regime.
  - ben_w 11mo ago
    From the outside, it appears that "upset the regime" includes "cheating your way into profits". That said, it's very difficult to be sure if what I see from the outside is propaganda. Or rather, it is always propaganda even when it's true, and I can't tell how much of it is China's own self-promotion vs. other people giving negative propaganda.
    - victorbjorklund 11mo ago
      You don’t think president Xi:s family and friends cheated? Of course they have. Yet they don’t go to prison.
      - ben_w 11mo ago
        I'm saying from the outside, it doesn't look like that. That's a much weaker statement, as should've been obvious from what I went on to say about propaganda. Example of cheating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Officials_implicated_by_the_anti-corruption_campaign_in_China_(2017–2022) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Officials_implicated_by_the_an... And: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal#Arrests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal#Arre... Nevertheless, it would be interesting if someone could, you know, prove, and not merely allege, that Xi Jinping's family or friends cheated.
        ctchocula 11mo ago
        https://panamapapers.org/case-study-china https://panamapapers.org/case-study-china
        ben_w 11mo ago
        Yup, that's the kind of thing I have in mind. Even with the sub-heading "It's legal, and that's the problem."*, and even though this kind of cheating is broader than this reply chain from "There is no such thing as too big to fail in China", this is absolutely within bounds for what I asked for :) * and the not-proof-read AI generated image, that never helps…
specialp 11mo ago
China has a huge deflation problem that they export to the world via cheap products. They have a lot of capacity and not enough consumers. So in China, an unstated mild Keynesian approach makes sense. They can sweep debt under the rug and take in inflation from net debtor countries
- baxtr 11mo ago
  Which on the one hand is great because through that China exports material wealth to the world. At the same time production capacity outside of China has to compete with this "rigged" system, which is near impossible to do.
- HPsquared 11mo ago
  Falling prices, sounds like the way things should be as real technology and markets develop. Inflation is not natural.
- csomar 11mo ago
  Only a capitalist high on stocks can convince you that falling prices are bad. I, for one, welcome these falling prices. I thought inflation was the problem?

faitswulff 11mo ago

> They’ll nationalize and inflate away any institutional debt or wipe it out This is just the reverse, actually, China isn’t afraid to go so far as to jail CEOs. There is no such thing as too big to fail in China, and all the Chinese domestic companies know it. The bailout playbook is a western thing.

toomuchtodo 11mo ago
China has been performing debt swaps with local governments to clean up their balance sheets [1], so used as an example. Agree with all of your comment. People make the mistake that China plays by artificial US capital market rules around profit and debt; they do not. They optimize for physical world success, not line go up. [1] Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-economy-can-1-6-trillion-help-solve-xi-s-hidden-debt-problem https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-eco... | https://archive.today/HsaHV https://archive.today/HsaHV - April 16th, 2025
- faitswulff 11mo ago
  Ah, I think I get it. Are you saying that regardless of BYD’s continued existence, China will still have 1/3 of the world’s manufacturing capacity?
  - toomuchtodo 11mo ago
    Yes, exactly. Just as in the US, when an enterprise gets wiped out and recapitalized, all of the physical assets remain. In China’s case, they are the backstop of last resort, and will always recapitalize according to their nation state planning and target outcomes. They allow companies to operate the assets as long as the Chinese government is willing to allow it, but they remain assets of China.
    - truetraveller 11mo ago
      So, essentially, there is a root company called China, Inc. Correct?
      - tifan 11mo ago
        Exactly. Not strictly China Inc, but SASAC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_Assets_Supervision_and_Administration_Commission_of_the_State_Council https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_Assets_Supervision...)
- refurb 11mo ago
  There is no free lunch. Debt in China is still owed to someone. Printing money creates inflation. Oversupply leads to deflation. It’s why China’s real estate company debt is dragging down the economy as a whole. It’s all connected. China very much is held to the same rules as the US, especially as it engages with the global financial system. Which is why they are in so much trouble. The economy is anemic. The last stimulus package barely made a difference. Debt overhang remains.
  - amrocha 11mo ago
victorbjorklund 11mo ago
They only jail the people that upset the regime.
- ben_w 11mo ago
  From the outside, it appears that "upset the regime" includes "cheating your way into profits". That said, it's very difficult to be sure if what I see from the outside is propaganda. Or rather, it is always propaganda even when it's true, and I can't tell how much of it is China's own self-promotion vs. other people giving negative propaganda.
  - victorbjorklund 11mo ago
    You don’t think president Xi:s family and friends cheated? Of course they have. Yet they don’t go to prison.
    - ben_w 11mo ago
      I'm saying from the outside, it doesn't look like that. That's a much weaker statement, as should've been obvious from what I went on to say about propaganda. Example of cheating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Officials_implicated_by_the_anti-corruption_campaign_in_China_(2017–2022) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Officials_implicated_by_the_an... And: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal#Arrests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal#Arre... Nevertheless, it would be interesting if someone could, you know, prove, and not merely allege, that Xi Jinping's family or friends cheated.
      - ctchocula 11mo ago
        https://panamapapers.org/case-study-china https://panamapapers.org/case-study-china
        ben_w 11mo ago
        Yup, that's the kind of thing I have in mind. Even with the sub-heading "It's legal, and that's the problem."*, and even though this kind of cheating is broader than this reply chain from "There is no such thing as too big to fail in China", this is absolutely within bounds for what I asked for :) * and the not-proof-read AI generated image, that never helps…

specialp 11mo ago

China has a huge deflation problem that they export to the world via cheap products. They have a lot of capacity and not enough consumers. So in China, an unstated mild Keynesian approach makes sense. They can sweep debt under the rug and take in inflation from net debtor countries

baxtr 11mo ago
Which on the one hand is great because through that China exports material wealth to the world. At the same time production capacity outside of China has to compete with this "rigged" system, which is near impossible to do.
HPsquared 11mo ago
Falling prices, sounds like the way things should be as real technology and markets develop. Inflation is not natural.
csomar 11mo ago
Only a capitalist high on stocks can convince you that falling prices are bad. I, for one, welcome these falling prices. I thought inflation was the problem?