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The obsession with wars plays a cruel joke with its adherents. China will not go to war with Taiwan unless something really stupid is done against China. "> mu
by bigbadfeline 10mo ago
The obsession with wars plays a cruel joke with its adherents. China will not go to war with Taiwan unless something really stupid is done against China.
"> multiple doomsday options..." - doomsday for whom exactly? China doesn't import anything vital from Taiwan but the West does. Both Taiwan and the West are dependent on China too.
Moreover, the Chinese have other options: sanctions, blockades, covert military, etc. the precedent has already been established with Venezuela.
If China disrupts Taiwan's fragile economy, the fabs will doomsday themselves and the West will go along with them.
> I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan
You're thinking in terms of plunder but that's not how China thinks. China is being pressured economically and threatened militarily - Venezuela supplies oil to China, and the Chinese have investments there - Taiwan is just a pawn in a much bigger, existential game of survival.
- tim-tday 10mo agoI guarantee China will invade Taiwan before the end of 2027. All you have to do is compare rhetoric of leaders who invaded another country with what China has been saying.
- mittensc 10mo ago> I guarantee China will invade Taiwan before the end of 2027. depends on the US. If the US stations troops in Taiwan then this becomes a non starter. If the US continues to be weak and foolish then you're right.
- wolvoleo 10mo agoTrue, everyone was saying that Putin was just posturing about invading Ukraine too.
- bigbadfeline 10mo agoNot a valid argument. Xi isn't Putin and China isn't Russia. Politically they are different like day and night. The real reasons for Putin's invasion of Ukraine bear absolutely no similarity to anything pertaining to China-Taiwan's relations.
- seanmcdirmid 10mo agoChina has been promising to retake Taiwan for the last 25 years. Xi bringing this up in a new years speech is practically ceremonial y at this point. What makes you think China is different this time, Trumo hasn’t messed up things on the otherwise that much has he?
- throw4r5yeet 10mo agoAnd what will you do if they don’t? I know someone who has been predicting this invasion for the past 50 years, ever since Taiwan was kicked out of the UN.