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Taiwan is a rich country (23M people 1T GDP country) Taiwan has critical tech and industry that is hard to replicate which china doesnt have access to but the

by mittensc 10mo ago

Taiwan is a rich country (23M people 1T GDP country) Taiwan has critical tech and industry that is hard to replicate which china doesnt have access to but the west relies on. So, if they take it peacefully they both grow in strength and weaken the rest of the world. If they take it by force then they don't really lose much (barring nuclear exchanges) and cripple the rest of the world. If the US intervenes then it's another discussion but depends on their military strenght calculations... They might want to fight conventionally the US outside their borders and get the US to give up like vietnam and win over their region by force... That and historical reasons. If Xi pulls it off he's comparable to Mao.

CamperBob2 10mo ago
If they take it by force then they don't really lose much (barring nuclear exchanges) and cripple the rest of the world. If they take it by force, they will take a smoking hole in the ground where all that "critical tech" used to be. If Xi pulls it off he's comparable to Mao. Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason?
- mittensc 10mo ago
  > If they take it by force, they will take a smoking hole in the ground where all that "critical tech" used to be. Sure, but first, it's the rest of the world that loses it. With that tech manufacturing base gone, rest of the world might be forced to buy from china. China doesnt buy from Taiwan. Second, people and documents will still be around similar to germany's rocket scientists, they can be put to work. > Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason? Sure, that too. Dictators don't care about pople... (Putin is doing it too and if anything, killing your own people solidifies power...) I was thinking more how he's perceived like some sort of deity by chinese people and was untouchable power wise.
  - ThrowawayR2 10mo ago
    > "With that tech manufacturing base gone, rest of the world might be forced to buy from china" There are plenty of other advanced chip fabs outside of Taiwan. The ignorati on HN like to talk shit about Intel, a fair bit of which is deserved, but they have the second most advanced fabs in the world. Samsung, I believe, has the third best.
    - mittensc 10mo ago
      Can intel take over all the manufacturing volume currently at TSMC They can't even take parts since they have different tooling... they're just starting to take 3rd party chips...
- observationist 10mo ago
  A bag of fine flour tossed into the clean rooms, and using a taser on all the electronics and control boards makes entire fabs more or less worthless. They probably have multiple doomsday options that wipe out any utility the chip plants might have. I'd probably also have a technology and documentation package ready to be shipped to the US by a secret lawyer - if Taiwan gets taken, the fabs get destroyed, and the US gets the technology. They're not weak or stupid, the level of retaliation and sabotage in store against any attempt by China to take over would go down in history as some of the most ruthless and savage of all time. Xi is just beating his chest. China is currently simmering - protests, civil unrest, and dissidence in general is up significantly over the last year or so, and they need to make bold public speeches to look powerful and in control. I don't think there's any risk of widespread public revolt, but they play these games and push propaganda because they have to, not because it makes sense. China's been threatening to "unify" Taiwan for decades, more or less like clockwork. They missed their best opportunity to actually do it during Biden and covid - the US would likely have just let it happen at that point. With new US fabs popping up, we may reach parity with Taiwan chipmaking capabilities within a decade or less, and that makes the utility of Taiwan even less. Urban resistance fighters and guerilla tactics from a hostile population makes taking over cities and towns like that more or less completely impossible. Any attempt by China to take Taiwan would end up looking like the US trying to "liberate" Iraq, with constant PR hits, human rights violations, way more money than they want to spend, or risking inciting major unrest if they just wipe out the Taiwanese population like monsters. I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan, it's more useful as a perennial jingoistic narrative than anything else at this point.
  - bigbadfeline 10mo ago
    The obsession with wars plays a cruel joke with its adherents. China will not go to war with Taiwan unless something really stupid is done against China. "> multiple doomsday options..." - doomsday for whom exactly? China doesn't import anything vital from Taiwan but the West does. Both Taiwan and the West are dependent on China too. Moreover, the Chinese have other options: sanctions, blockades, covert military, etc. the precedent has already been established with Venezuela. If China disrupts Taiwan's fragile economy, the fabs will doomsday themselves and the West will go along with them. > I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan You're thinking in terms of plunder but that's not how China thinks. China is being pressured economically and threatened militarily - Venezuela supplies oil to China, and the Chinese have investments there - Taiwan is just a pawn in a much bigger, existential game of survival.
- throw4r5yeet 10mo ago
  > Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason? This is like saying George Washington is only famous for his role in the Native American genocide.
  - CamperBob2 10mo ago
    No, not really.

CamperBob2 10mo ago

If they take it by force then they don't really lose much (barring nuclear exchanges) and cripple the rest of the world. If they take it by force, they will take a smoking hole in the ground where all that "critical tech" used to be. If Xi pulls it off he's comparable to Mao. Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason?

mittensc 10mo ago
> If they take it by force, they will take a smoking hole in the ground where all that "critical tech" used to be. Sure, but first, it's the rest of the world that loses it. With that tech manufacturing base gone, rest of the world might be forced to buy from china. China doesnt buy from Taiwan. Second, people and documents will still be around similar to germany's rocket scientists, they can be put to work. > Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason? Sure, that too. Dictators don't care about pople... (Putin is doing it too and if anything, killing your own people solidifies power...) I was thinking more how he's perceived like some sort of deity by chinese people and was untouchable power wise.
- ThrowawayR2 10mo ago
  > "With that tech manufacturing base gone, rest of the world might be forced to buy from china" There are plenty of other advanced chip fabs outside of Taiwan. The ignorati on HN like to talk shit about Intel, a fair bit of which is deserved, but they have the second most advanced fabs in the world. Samsung, I believe, has the third best.
  - mittensc 10mo ago
    Can intel take over all the manufacturing volume currently at TSMC They can't even take parts since they have different tooling... they're just starting to take 3rd party chips...
observationist 10mo ago
A bag of fine flour tossed into the clean rooms, and using a taser on all the electronics and control boards makes entire fabs more or less worthless. They probably have multiple doomsday options that wipe out any utility the chip plants might have. I'd probably also have a technology and documentation package ready to be shipped to the US by a secret lawyer - if Taiwan gets taken, the fabs get destroyed, and the US gets the technology. They're not weak or stupid, the level of retaliation and sabotage in store against any attempt by China to take over would go down in history as some of the most ruthless and savage of all time. Xi is just beating his chest. China is currently simmering - protests, civil unrest, and dissidence in general is up significantly over the last year or so, and they need to make bold public speeches to look powerful and in control. I don't think there's any risk of widespread public revolt, but they play these games and push propaganda because they have to, not because it makes sense. China's been threatening to "unify" Taiwan for decades, more or less like clockwork. They missed their best opportunity to actually do it during Biden and covid - the US would likely have just let it happen at that point. With new US fabs popping up, we may reach parity with Taiwan chipmaking capabilities within a decade or less, and that makes the utility of Taiwan even less. Urban resistance fighters and guerilla tactics from a hostile population makes taking over cities and towns like that more or less completely impossible. Any attempt by China to take Taiwan would end up looking like the US trying to "liberate" Iraq, with constant PR hits, human rights violations, way more money than they want to spend, or risking inciting major unrest if they just wipe out the Taiwanese population like monsters. I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan, it's more useful as a perennial jingoistic narrative than anything else at this point.
- bigbadfeline 10mo ago
  The obsession with wars plays a cruel joke with its adherents. China will not go to war with Taiwan unless something really stupid is done against China. "> multiple doomsday options..." - doomsday for whom exactly? China doesn't import anything vital from Taiwan but the West does. Both Taiwan and the West are dependent on China too. Moreover, the Chinese have other options: sanctions, blockades, covert military, etc. the precedent has already been established with Venezuela. If China disrupts Taiwan's fragile economy, the fabs will doomsday themselves and the West will go along with them. > I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan You're thinking in terms of plunder but that's not how China thinks. China is being pressured economically and threatened militarily - Venezuela supplies oil to China, and the Chinese have investments there - Taiwan is just a pawn in a much bigger, existential game of survival.
throw4r5yeet 10mo ago
> Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason? This is like saying George Washington is only famous for his role in the Native American genocide.
- CamperBob2 10mo ago
  No, not really.