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There is a pretty big moat for Google: extreme amounts of video data on their existing services and absolutely no dependence on Nvidia and it's 90% margin.
by fooblaster 9mo ago
There is a pretty big moat for Google: extreme amounts of video data on their existing services and absolutely no dependence on Nvidia and it's 90% margin.
- fooblaster 9mo agoAnd yes, all their competitors are making custom chips. Google is on TPU v7. absolutely nobody is going to get this right on the first try among their competitors - Google didn't.
- CharlieDigital 9mo agoBigger problem for late starts now is that it will be hard to match the performance and cost of Google/Nvidia. It's an investment that had to have started years ago to be competitive now.
- nateb2022 9mo agoI have yet to be convinced the broader population has an appetite for AI produced cinematography or videos. Independence from Nvidia is no more of a liability than dependence on electricity rates; it's not as if it's in Nvidia's interest to see one of its large customers fail. And pretty much any of the other Mag7 companies are capable of developing in-house TPUs + are already independently profitable, so Google isn't alone here.
- fooblaster 9mo agoIf you think they are going to catch up with Google's software and hardware ecosystem on their first chip, you may be underestimating how hard this is. Google is on TPU v7. meta has already tried with MTIA v1 and v2. those haven't been deployed at scale for inference.
- nateb2022 9mo agoI don't think many of them will want to, though. I think as long as Nvidia/AMD/other hardware providers offer inference hardware at prices decent enough to not justify building a chip in-house, most companies won't. Some of them will probably experiment, although that will look more like a small team of researchers + a moderate budget rather than a burn-the-ships we're going to use only our own hardware approach.
- fooblaster 9mo agoWell, anthropic just purchased a million TPUs from Google because even with a healthy margin from Google, it's far more cost effective because of Nvidia's insane markup. That speaks for itself. Nvidia will not drop their margin because it will tank their stock price. it's half of the reason for all this circular financing - lowering their effective margin without lowering it on paper.
- fragmede 9mo agoAnd, don't forget everyone's buying from TSMC in every case!
- Seattle3503 9mo agoThe video data is probably good for training models, including text models.
- margalabargala 9mo agoIt's in Nvidia's interest to charge the absolute maximum they can without their customers failing. Every dollar of Nvidia's margin is your own lost margin. Utilities don't do that. Nvidia is objectively a way bigger liability than electricity rates.
- bdangubic 9mo agoit is in every business’s best interest to charge the maximum…
- wrs 9mo agoUtilities and insurance companies are two examples of business regulated to not charge the maximum, for public policy reasons.
- bdangubic 9mo agowe suggesting that nvidia/google/.. be regulated for like utilities?
- margalabargala 9mo ago[flagged]
- AnonHP 9mo agoNot GP and haven’t participated in this thread. I’m clueless on what the point in your earlier comment is. Can you elaborate, please?
- margalabargala 9mo agoI can try. Which part is confusing to you, the "nvidia will charge as much as it can" part or the "utilities won't" part?
- 9mo ago
- ralph84 9mo agoThe value of YouTube for AI isn't making AI videos, it's that it's an incredibly rich source for humanity's current knowledge in one place. All of the tutorials, lectures, news reports, etc. are great for training models.
- Nextgrid 9mo agoIs that actually a moat? Seems like all model providers managed to scrape the entire textual internet just fine. If video is the next big thing I don’t see why they won’t scrape that too.
- monocasa 9mo agoAnd we're probably already starting to see that, given the semirecent escalations in game of cat and also cat of youtube and the likes of youtube-dl. Reminds me of Reddit's cracking down on API access after realizing that their data was useful. But I'd expect both youtube to be quicker on the gun knowing about AI data collection, and have more time because of the orders of magnitude greater bandwidth required to scrape video.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- jakeydus 9mo agoAnd reddit turned around and sold it all for a mess of pottage…
- satvikpendem 9mo agoSold being the operative word, rather than giving it away for free.
- monocasa 9mo agoWell, it is available for free either way. They pissed off their user base all for a horse that had already left the stable. https://academictorrents.com/details/2d056b22743718ac81915f25b094b6226668663f https://academictorrents.com/details/2d056b22743718ac81915f2...
- why-o-why 9mo agoGiven the fact that Apple and Coke but rushed to produce AI slop, and the agreements with Disney, we are going to see a metric fuck-ton of AI-generated cinema in the next decade. The broader population's tastes are absolute harbage when it comes to cinema, so I don't see why you need convincing. 40+ superhero films should be enough.
- Ekaros 9mo agoI think it will be accepted by broader population. But if generation is easy and cheap I wonder if there is demand. And I mean as total demand in the segment. Will there be enough impressions to go around to actually profit from the content. Especially if storage is also considered.
- loloquwowndueo 9mo agoIn this case the difference between its and it’s does alter the meaning of the sentence.
- simonsarris 9mo agoGoogle has several enviable, if not moats, at least redoubts. TPUs, mass infrastructure and own their own cloud services, they own delivery mechanisms on mobile (Android) and every device (Chrome). And Google and Youtube are still #1 and #2 most visited websites in the world.
- devsda 9mo agoDon't forget the other moat. While their competitors have to deal with actively hostile attempts to stop scraping training data, in Google's case almost everyone bends over backwards to give them easy access.
- catoc 9mo ago‘Actively hostile’ as in objecting to your content getting ripped off without permission?
- satvikpendem 9mo agoIt's a matter of perspective. In this scenario both sides see the other as hostile, just as one would look at a war happening as an outside observer.
- xivzgrev 9mo agoNot to mention security. I'd trust Google more not to have a data breach than open AI / whomever. Email accounts are hugely valuable but I haven't seen a Google data breach in the 20+ years I've been using them. This matters because I don't want my chats out there in public. Also integration with other services. I just had Gemini summarize the contents of a Google Drive folder and it was effortless & effective
- mootothemax 9mo agoWhile I don’t disagree with you, for historical purposes I think it’s important to highlight why google started its push for 100% wire encryption everywhere all the time: The NSA and GHCQ and basically every TLA with the ability to tap a fibre cable had figured out the gap in Google’s armour: Google’s datacenter backhaul links were unencrypted. Tap into them, and you get _everything_. I’ve no idea whether Snowdon’s leaks were a revelation or a confirmation for google themselves; either way, it’s arguably a total breach.
- stevenjgarner 9mo agoAgreed. Even xAI's (Grok's) access to live data on x.com and millions of live video inputs from Tesla is a moat not enjoyed by OpenAI.
- chroma205 9mo ago>Agreed. Even xAI's (Grok's) access to live data on x.com and millions of live video inputs from Tesla is a moat not enjoyed by OpenAI. Tesla does not have live video feed from (every) Tesla car.
- johnnyfived 9mo agoThat live data for X is mostly gonna consist of brainrot and egotistical founders and rising vibe coders, that data has to be worth so much less than something like Reddit.
- cdf 9mo agoOn paper, Google should never have allowed the ChatGPT moment to happen ; how did a then non-profit create what was basically a better search engine than Google? Google suffers from classic Innovator's Dilemma and need competition to refocus on what ought to be basic survival instincts. What is worse is the search users are not the customers. The customers of Google Search are the advertisers and they will always prioritise the needs of the customers and squander their moats as soon as the threat is gone.
- hattmall 9mo agoExactly, Google's business isn't search, it's ads. Is ChatGPT a more profitable system for delivering ads? That doesn't appear so, which means there's really no reason for Google to have created it first.
- razodactyl 9mo agoThere was a very negative "immune" response from the users when they perceived suggestions from ChatGPT as ads. This will be hard for them to integrate in a way that won't annoy users / will be better implemented than any other competitor in the same space. Or perhaps we just deal with all AI across the board serving us ads.... this makes more sense unfortunately.
- transcriptase 9mo agoThere’s a very negative immune response to the idea of Netflix running ads. And yet they’re there, in the form of prominent product placement in all of their original series along with strategic placement in the frame to make sure they appear in cropped clips posted to social media and made into gifs. Stranger Things alone has had 100-200 brands show up under the warm guise of nostalgia, with Coke alone putting up millions for all the less-than-subtle screen time their products get. I’m certain AI providers will figure out how to slyly put the highest bidder into a certain proportion of output without necessarily acting out that scene in Wayne’s World.
- mahirsaid 9mo ago
- choudharism 9mo agoThe TAM for video generation isn't as big as the other use cases.
- lokar 9mo agoYT is also a giant corpus of English via the transcription
- xnx 9mo agoI agree, but isn't the TAM for video generation all of movies, TV, and possibly video games, or all entertainment? That's a pretty big market.
- dilyevsky 9mo agoWhat you’re competing for is people’s attention and the tam for that is biggest there is
- IncreasePosts 9mo agoHasn't it all been scraped by other ai companies already?