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America's economy looks set to accelerate
- GolfPopper 11mo agoaccelerate - "To cause to move faster; to quicken the motion of; to add to the speed of." I.e. The airplane will accelerate as it plunges toward the ground.
- cultofmetatron 11mo agothe scientific definition is merely the change in velocity. slamming your breaks would also count as accelerating from a physics perspective.
- wslh 11mo agoThis is not what the article says, so in this context is misleading.
- hackable_sand 11mo agoAccelerate into a wall.
- chvid 11mo ago“A monetary-fiscal loosening is coming” is this not the permanent state of affairs? And not just in America but just about any country in the world.
- JumpCrisscross 11mo ago> is this not the permanent state of affairs? No. We just concluded a multi-year tightening combined with multi-trillion dollar Fed balance sheet reduction.
- mistrial9 11mo ago"tightening" from zero interest ?!?
- JumpCrisscross 11mo ago> "tightening" from zero interest ?!? What part are you confused by? There was more money and it was cheap. There was then less money and it became more expensive. Now it’s becoming cheap and plentiful again.
- adammarples 11mo agoThat's a monetary tightening, fiscal policy has been getting looser in all developed nations for a while, except places like Greece which were forced to tighten
- bdangubic 11mo agoso many words put together where neither of them makes any sense
- adammarples 11mo agoOK I'll translate it. Developed nations' central banks have been reducing the supply of money, while their governments have been spending a higher proportion of it.
- JumpCrisscross 11mo ago> That's a monetary tightening, fiscal policy has been getting looser in all developed nations for a while Got it, yes. Though I’d argue Europe at least tried after the financial crisis.
- nemomarx 11mo agoSo we're still testing out if tax cuts can increase consumer spending and grow the economy, then?
- websiteapi 11mo agoIs there proof high taxes grow the economy?
- AngryData 11mo agoThere is proof that infastructure improvements grow economies, which is usually paid for through taxes. Of course there is no guarentee tax increases will go towards infastructure.
- aeternum 11mo agoThe only problem with modern infrastructure projects is that the infrastructure doesn't actually get built. They have become welfare programs in disguise. In the past the government would choose a competent industrialist to lead the construction such as Kaiser to build the Hoover Dam. Imagine the impossibility of appointing a billionaire industrialist to build CA high-speed rail in this age.
- websiteapi 11mo agoindeed there is no guarantee taxes go to infrastructure.
- nemomarx 11mo agoIf you spend the taxes on productive things, infrastructure, subsidies, it seems like that grows the economy directly. Cutting taxes and spending (ie austerity) has a more mixed track record of getting out of economic recessions, in my view.
- websiteapi 11mo agoempirically which countries have done what you are describing?
- paxys 11mo agoAnd what about inflation?
- trgn 11mo agoor dollar losing value
- eitally 11mo agoCausing the dollar to devalue is a part of the strategy.
- m00dy 11mo agootherwise, it would be really hard to scale with a strong dollar :)
- potatoman22 11mo agoElaborate?
- hypeatei 11mo agoDebt becomes cheaper with devaluation of the dollar, and the US has a lot of it.
- AnimalMuppet 11mo agoNot just that. Imports become more expensive; exports become cheaper. This helps US manufacturing.
- saulpw 11mo agoWho cares? The roaring 20s will be great!
- datadrivenangel 11mo agoThis needs to happen in order for the US to deal with its debts.
- mupuff1234 11mo agoAny good hedges against a possible downfall of USD?
- JumpCrisscross 11mo agoLiterally anything. TIPS. Stocks. Real estate. Cans of beans. Inflation means purchasing power going down. There are likely knock-on effects stemming from precisely why the dollar weakens. But the general treatment to a declining asset is to sell it. For dollars, that means consuming and investing.
- wolvoleo 11mo agoRAM modules. (Joking, don't ever take my financial advice on anything!)
- why-o-why 11mo agoNo. I asked my RIA, and he said that scenario would destroy the world economy but also it is highly improbable (he never says "impossible", which is what I like about him). There's no place to hide if the USD craters a-la reddit-like doomsdaying (not even non-US funds). EDIT: My speculation, not my RIA's: If the global economy wasn't backed by USD, I would recommend foreign funds/ETFs, but everything is interconnected with the US economy. Maybe in 50 years if the global economy moves to anohter currency, but what is there? sterling? renminbi? rubles? rupees? there's nothing.
- Goronmon 11mo agoYeah its like when people say they are stockpiling gold in case of some form of economic apocalypse. I'm not sure what good gold would do you if people start physically fighting each other for food and water.
- unethical_ban 11mo agoBecause there are a lot of scenarios between total apocalypse and status quo. The USD may collapse partially compared to other currencies and common assets like BTC, gold, silver without me having to defend my home from raiders and trading whiskey for ammunition.
- robingchan 11mo agohttp://archive.today/Mc86e http://archive.today/Mc86e
- QuantumSeed 11mo agoReminder to all Capitalists: The earth is a finite resource
- christkv 11mo agoCuba is still there if you want to live in your utopia.
- hsuduebc2 11mo agoWeird to see McCarthy roleplay in 2025.
- unethical_ban 11mo agoCome on, really? Criticism of current implementations of capitalism != Advocacy of the total abolition of markets.
- christkv 11mo agoThat is the zeitgeist. American leftists like the democratic socialists talk loudly about being like Scandinavia but are going to visit Cuba and Venezuela. European socialists seems to think there is an unlimited amount of tax that can be raised from people who struggle to make 1500 EUR a month in countries like Spain while the EU political policy has been a major factor in the destruction of their purchasing power over the last 5 years. They can't buy homes, they don't get raises. The state takes in more than ever. If anything you can argue Europe has too little capitalism going on and too much state capitalism. No implementation would ever be good enough. We know the current system in Europe at least is collapsing because of the unbearable cost of the welfare system plus growth stagnation not because of "billionaires" (and no amount of raising taxes on the young generation or the "rich" will fix it). But it's easy to avoid dealing with the real economic problems and just blame something external being it "billionaires", the 1%, Trump, Putin, China etc (pick your favourite poison). In this forum pretty much everyone is privileged in the country they live compared to the normal citizen. It's easy to cosplay about "utopia" when it has little direct impact on you or you can just move away to another place. We are lead by Donkeys.
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- jama211 11mo agoAnything that quotes the current administration’s words as if they are anything other than propaganda at best is an article than can be safely thrown straight into the trash.
- AznHisoka 11mo agoThanks, just saved me a few mins from reading this
- fooker 11mo agoWhat if it does work though? It’s really dangerous to assume your political enemies are stupid and incompetent, even when they likely are. Because if it turns out you are wrong, you can only cry wolf a few times at best. The current administration has a stated goal to reindustrialize America, and even with modest success in that it’s natural for the economy to improve.
- pavlov 11mo agoIs it? Reindustrialization basically means that you want to turn the overall American economy to be more like China and less like California. Maybe that’s good for national security (or whatever is your values-based metric), but it’s not automatically good for GDP.
- fooker 11mo agoCalifornia is not a representative slice of America. You could imagine turning a few smaller states’ economies to be more like China (from the current government subsidized agriculture business) without messing with the tech and finance industries. I don’t understand the knee jerk reaction of assuming you have to burn something down to build something.
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- analognoise 11mo ago
- Animats 11mo ago"Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau." - written just before the 1929 crash.
- gulfofamerica 11mo agoIt seems like we are in the foothills of the singularity. Doomsayers should be used to being disappointed.
- hypeatei 11mo agoThis administration sucks, but it's a repeat of Trump's first term: cut taxes and keep government spending high. The Federal Reserve is also entering a QE-lite phase so more "free" money will be available for businesses to grow. Tariffs are likely to be repealed by the Supreme Court; people in the administration are betting against them if that tells you anything. 2026 will be interesting.
- thomassmith65 11mo agoFor all these reasons a vocal minority of analysts say that 2026 will be a year of strong economic growth Right, a vocal minority. That is less surprising considering: • the USD is plummeting • America's trading partners are frantically looking to foster trade with more reliable partners • Fed policy and American economic data are becoming unreliable due to political pressure • a handful of AI companies, with questionable longevity, are driving most of the stock market's growth We should append "say minority of analysts" to the title
- christkv 11mo agoIf you want to reduce imports and boost exports a plummeting USD is what you want. Why do you think China manipulates its currency to keep it weak. Who are these more reliable trading partners you are talking about ? Fed does not seem to do what Trump wants. It's all the markets NASDAQ, DOW, S&P 500, most of the big AI stuff is privately held investments with the exception of Google and Nvidia.
- general1465 11mo ago> If you want to reduce imports and boost exports a plummeting USD is what you want. Why do you think China manipulates its currency to keep it weak. Where are all these exports going? It feels like there is very limited amount of buyers who can actually afford Made in USA.
- spwa4 11mo agohttps://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-by-country https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-by-countr... Mostly to Canada and Mexico (close to 1/3), then to China, EU, Japan, ...
- nativeit 11mo agoI don't think those figures are entirely relevant anymore, since they're all pre-trade war. Factories are pausing operations due to the decline in export sales.
- whatever1 11mo agoAccelerate producing what? And who will be consuming that "what"? World trade is dead as we know it, cross border compute is on its last wheels. Internal median buying power is also in shambles.
- password54321 11mo agoIt sure is, been a great year... If you are part of the top 1%: https://fortune.com/2025/12/08/how-many-billionaires-does-america-world-have-ubs/ https://fortune.com/2025/12/08/how-many-billionaires-does-am...
- luke5441 11mo ago2.3% GDP growth with a 5.5% GDP budget deficit. Not great not terrible.
- senshan 11mo agoSame old, same old: Economist, Nov 18th 1999: Readjusting the lens (The latest statistics require a new look at America’s productivity puzzle) https://archive.is/hXJ8A https://archive.is/hXJ8A Economist, Sep 23rd 1999: A new economy for the New World? (Inflation may not be as dead as it seems) https://archive.is/eHeiU https://archive.is/eHeiU
- hn_throwaway_99 11mo agoWow, so many comments here just spouting tribal talking points without actually looking at what the article is saying. The article's conclusions look wholly reasonable to me. Americans (well, the wealthy ones anyway) got a massive tax cut, and interest rates are likely to come down, especially once JPow is replaced. That should lead to greater economic activity. However, it will also very likely lead to higher inflation, which was never really tamed, and even greater wealth inequality. That is likely to lead to even more political discontent, and I don't think anyone has a crystal ball on how that will eventually play out. The Economist also had an article just before the 2024 election saying how the US economy was so great and the envy of the world. And that may have been true looking at aggregate numbers, but it's pretty clear huge swaths of the US electorate have seen their economic situation deteriorate. Large numbers of people on Obamacare will no longer be able to afford their health insurance, and if interest rates do come down as expected it will probably make homeownership even more unaffordable. Nevermind the real risks of the federal government's ever increasing debt unsustainability. The economy may "accelerate", but at some point the deep structural problems will cause the wheels to come off.
- baal80spam 11mo ago> Wow, so many comments here just spouting tribal talking points without actually looking at what the article is saying. 2 things are sure in HN comments: 1 - orange man bad 2 - AI is a bubble
- throwaway-11-1 11mo ago“Yeah he may be a pedophile but wow have you seen Palantir’s stock price lately?”
- aworks 11mo agoStephen Kotkin suggests that the US share of nominal global GDP remains roughly constant, at around 25% regardless of political and policy changes. I don't know if that's right but any real change in the trend might require even more substantial policy re-work than we've had in the last 50 years. Trump II might not be that.
- metadope 11mo agoThis caught my attention: >the administration has weakened tax enforcement ... as more people cheat on their payments ... the effect could be worth an additional 0.25% of GDP. Here is the first beneficial side effect of firing and defunding all of those federal workers and agencies, especially the now-hobbled IRS. Who says "cheaters never prosper"? We have an economic forecast of national prosperity through perdition.
- giardini 11mo agoTopic has turned into an anti-Trump shit-storm. Flag it!
- starchild3001 11mo agoDespite consensus forecasts predicting a slowdown to 1.8% growth, the US economy appears poised for acceleration in 2026 driven by a potent combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary loosening. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s optimism is underpinned by the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which delivers retroactive tax cuts, alongside a rebound in government spending following a record 43-day shutdown and the potential for the Supreme Court to invalidate certain tariffs, resulting in significant corporate refunds. This fiscal stimulus coincides with the Federal Reserve’s pivot to lower interest rates—a trend likely to intensify as President Trump seeks to appoint dovish leadership to the central bank. While this synchronized stimulus supports bullish stock market projections and complements favorable global conditions like low oil prices, it carries significant risks of reigniting inflation and spiking long-term bond yields; nevertheless, the absence of immediate shocks suggests the economy has ample scope to outperform expectations.
- nsbsh 10mo agoandsoitis is a cia bot. offers zero value to this site. posts random links to news articles and lots of political opinions.