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TSLA investors: * don't believe the 67% will follow through with that after experiencing FSD * don't need 67% of Americans to purchase the car. Robotaxi use i

TSLA investors: * don't believe the 67% will follow through with that after experiencing FSD * don't need 67% of Americans to purchase the car. Robotaxi use is plenty. * look beyond the American market and its pathetic 5% EV share.

mapontosevenths 10mo ago
Personally, I suspect they're very wrong about the first two points, but that's just my opinion. Thanks for explaining the other side of it.
dzhiurgis 10mo ago
FSD is going to wipe everything off. I’ve tried v13 few weeks ago, knowing it works so well. Still got shocked how good it is. They’ll have to drop the price of it tho, but even then 10M cars * $100 per month is $12b of revenue per year.
- mapontosevenths 10mo ago
  How is that a Tesla thing though? I'm fairly certain every auto manufacturer and many non-auto manufacturers are working on it. I doubt they'll be able to patent anything truly important to the process, since others beat them to the market with most of it. Or am I missing something essential?
  - overfeed 10mo ago
    > How is that a Tesla thing though? It's not. Waymo could license a version of its stack using the Android model (specifies a minimum sensor suite OEMs have to qualify models on).
  - iknowstuff 10mo ago
    Remember how everyone kept saying tesla is doomed because any minute now the old OEMs were going to storm in and kill their EV business? In actuality, those OEMs are getting killed by Tesla and Chinese startups. You are making the same argument for autonomy. Old OEMS cannot compete in this space at all. Waymo cannot compete on price with Tesla.
    - rootusrootus 10mo ago
      > Waymo cannot compete on price with Tesla It's a race between how fast Waymo's COGS can decline and how fast Tesla's FSD can achieve actual self-driving. At this moment, given all the evidence available, my inclination is that Waymo is in a better spot.
      - iknowstuff 10mo ago
        I don’t think your inclination is unreasonable. Having taken probably like a hundred rides with about an even Tesla/Waymo split in SF, Teslas feel smoother and less robotic, but of course if they felt safety was where it needs to be, they’d be driverless by now. It’s a bit of a bet. It feels like Tesla is real close, and if they get there, Waymo has no way to compete with Tesla’s manufacturing prowess and vertical integration.
    - mapontosevenths 10mo ago
      Sure, they're a bit ahead but Mercedes has level 3 self driving and they didnt celebrate killing a bunch of people (and not lowering the deficit) by prancing around with a chainsaw.[0] I feel like people will be willing to wait until next year for the Alphabet or Mercedes version, but maybe I'm overestimating the average person's attention span or underestimating how far behind the competition is. [0] https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-new-yorker-documentary/the-shutdown-of-usaid-has-already-killed-hundreds-of-thousands https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-new-yorker-documentary...
      - terminalshort 10mo ago
        When I looked for videos of the Mercedes L3 in action a while ago all I could find were videos showing it doing stuff the Tesla FSD could do easily 5 years ago. Has it improved a lot recently?
      - iknowstuff 10mo ago
        The mercedes L3 thing is a gimped press gimmick/vaporware. You won’t a single non-press video from an owner just using it. Not a single one.
- breve 10mo ago
  > FSD is going to wipe everything off. Then why are Tesla's sales down globally?
- nutjob2 10mo ago
  > I’ve tried v13 few weeks ago, knowing it works so well. Still got shocked how good it is. You're not in a position to makes those claims. People think that if it works for them, it's great, which is nonsense of course.

mapontosevenths 10mo ago

Personally, I suspect they're very wrong about the first two points, but that's just my opinion. Thanks for explaining the other side of it.

dzhiurgis 10mo ago

FSD is going to wipe everything off. I’ve tried v13 few weeks ago, knowing it works so well. Still got shocked how good it is. They’ll have to drop the price of it tho, but even then 10M cars * $100 per month is $12b of revenue per year.

mapontosevenths 10mo ago
How is that a Tesla thing though? I'm fairly certain every auto manufacturer and many non-auto manufacturers are working on it. I doubt they'll be able to patent anything truly important to the process, since others beat them to the market with most of it. Or am I missing something essential?
- overfeed 10mo ago
  > How is that a Tesla thing though? It's not. Waymo could license a version of its stack using the Android model (specifies a minimum sensor suite OEMs have to qualify models on).
- iknowstuff 10mo ago
  Remember how everyone kept saying tesla is doomed because any minute now the old OEMs were going to storm in and kill their EV business? In actuality, those OEMs are getting killed by Tesla and Chinese startups. You are making the same argument for autonomy. Old OEMS cannot compete in this space at all. Waymo cannot compete on price with Tesla.
  - rootusrootus 10mo ago
    > Waymo cannot compete on price with Tesla It's a race between how fast Waymo's COGS can decline and how fast Tesla's FSD can achieve actual self-driving. At this moment, given all the evidence available, my inclination is that Waymo is in a better spot.
    - iknowstuff 10mo ago
      I don’t think your inclination is unreasonable. Having taken probably like a hundred rides with about an even Tesla/Waymo split in SF, Teslas feel smoother and less robotic, but of course if they felt safety was where it needs to be, they’d be driverless by now. It’s a bit of a bet. It feels like Tesla is real close, and if they get there, Waymo has no way to compete with Tesla’s manufacturing prowess and vertical integration.
  - mapontosevenths 10mo ago
    Sure, they're a bit ahead but Mercedes has level 3 self driving and they didnt celebrate killing a bunch of people (and not lowering the deficit) by prancing around with a chainsaw.[0] I feel like people will be willing to wait until next year for the Alphabet or Mercedes version, but maybe I'm overestimating the average person's attention span or underestimating how far behind the competition is. [0] https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-new-yorker-documentary/the-shutdown-of-usaid-has-already-killed-hundreds-of-thousands https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-new-yorker-documentary...
    - terminalshort 10mo ago
      When I looked for videos of the Mercedes L3 in action a while ago all I could find were videos showing it doing stuff the Tesla FSD could do easily 5 years ago. Has it improved a lot recently?
    - iknowstuff 10mo ago
      The mercedes L3 thing is a gimped press gimmick/vaporware. You won’t a single non-press video from an owner just using it. Not a single one.
breve 10mo ago
> FSD is going to wipe everything off. Then why are Tesla's sales down globally?
nutjob2 10mo ago
> I’ve tried v13 few weeks ago, knowing it works so well. Still got shocked how good it is. You're not in a position to makes those claims. People think that if it works for them, it's great, which is nonsense of course.