8 ms·
An ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil
https://archive.md/qUe7n https://archive.md/qUe7n
- bookofjoe 11mo agono paywall: https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/an-ounce-of-silver-is-now-worth-more-than-a-barrel-of-oil-196e149e?st=aHTnKM&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/an-ounce-of-...
- zahlman 11mo agoVisible without JavaScript etc.: https://archive.ph/qUe7n https://archive.ph/qUe7n (it was already there when I checked).
- gnabgib 11mo agoDiscussion (21 points, 23 hours ago, 23 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46396755 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46396755
- paulpauper 11mo agotime to sell the silverware
- garyfirestorm 11mo agoHow about Microsoft Silverlight
- LeFantome 11mo agohttps://opensilver.net/ https://opensilver.net/
- pfdietz 11mo agoI know, right? Stainless steel is objectively better. Send the silver on to some valuable use, like making PV cells.
- karim79 11mo ago[flagged]
- rjsw 11mo agoIt is useful as chemical feedstock, burning it is a waste.
- jakupovic 11mo agoI read this "useful as automotive feedstock" which still makes sense.
- datahack 11mo agoTruly, it’s a miracle for manufacturing. I wish people would understand what a profound waste burning it actually is.
- adamwong246 11mo agoAll petroleum was created from ancient forests before the evolution of microorganisms that could decompose fiber, so the plant material was simply buried and gradually became petroleum. Above ground, evolution produced organisms which could break down fiber. My point being, that not only is petroleum very useful, it is exceptionally rare on a geological timeline (at least on this planet ). It's like a cosmic trust fund, and like most trust fund recipents, we utterly squandered it. We took all this free energy, burned it to power ai slop, and poisoned ourselves in the process. We should have been using that oil to push humans out of the gravity well to Titan where petroleum is abundant. But no, we wanted big cars, cheap electricity and single use utensils. Edit: I was mistaken, confusing coal and petroleum. While petroleum comes from microscopic ocean life, coal forms from the remains of terrestrial plants.
- nerdsniper 11mo agoI think that the forest thing might be true for coal but I believe oil is from algae.
- buckle8017 11mo agoThis is the inevitable result of western countries taxing oil. The higher the taxes the lower the price of crude has to be for people to afford it. This means reduced western demand at high prices. However this doesn't reduce consumption, it just shifts the consumption to the developing world, where there are minimal if any taxes on consumption.
- llmslave2 11mo agoIf only this wasn't wholly predictable...
- thaumasiotes 11mo ago> However this doesn't reduce consumption, it just shifts the consumption to the developing world This is true if production levels aren't responsive to prices, but I see no reason that would be the case. Petroleum production levels are known to be quite responsive to upward price movements.
- mr_toad 11mo agoThe producers vary production to drive price movements, not the other way around.
- fy20 11mo agoThere have been seconds order effects that have led to lower fuel consumption. Cars typically consume less fuel for the same distance driven compared to two decades ago. Part of that is increased fuel economy, part of it is smaller / more efficient cars growing in popularity.
- mothballed 11mo agoMeanwhile in most states there is no sales tax at all on silver bullion.
- themadturk 11mo agoI think it start Jan. 1 in Washington.
- tlhunter 11mo agoThe human verification script used on this site caused my phone's speakers to wig out.
- gethly 11mo agoSilver is limited in supply. The production is actually in deficit for years now, as silver gets used up and there is very little recycling. Oil on the other hand is infinite.
- jgalt212 11mo agoYou must have had a lot of fun when the "peak oil" crowd was dominating the conversation.
- stouset 11mo agoAnnually, we consume more oil than we find additional reserves of. The difference is something like 12 times less than annual consumption, and the gap is widening. If you’ve found a way to escape that arithmetic, I’m all ears.
- hippo22 11mo agoThe math is pretty simple: the world consumes 36 billion barrels of oil a year and there are like 2 trillion barrels of known reserves. We have enough reserves for 55 years of current consumption. There’s 0 incentive to find more.
- mothballed 11mo agoThere's a $60+ / barrel incentive to find and extract more.
- twodave 11mo agoOstensibly not all known oil fields are actively being extracted. This fact alone makes it unlikely that discovering a new source would affect the price of oil, unless it can be retrieved using cheaper than the existing methods. It’s also worth pointing out that “oil” as a resource isn’t this homogenous substance. Basically every different source of oil has a different (and expensive) refinement process on the other end. It’s a lot more variables than the Reddit-style armchair oil tycoon would probably expect.
- torcete 11mo agoThere's an asian AI guy on youtube providing a lot of information about what is going on with the silver right now. Sometimes it seems like he has some insider information, and the whole reasoning seems to come from an expert. It's strange because it's just not one channel but multiple, and the person behind has kept uploading videos during the entire duration of these holidays. So far, he seems to be quite accurate with his predictions. It's been quite informative. If someone is curious, one of many: https://youtu.be/vBIUZGlNkks https://youtu.be/vBIUZGlNkks
- chairhairair 11mo agoDo you not realize this is an AI generated person?
- buildsjets 11mo agoHe realized it. But you did not realize that.
- chairhairair 11mo agoMaybe? He said “Asian AI guy”, which is pretty weird. Then he went on to claim this bizzaro video has “been quite informative.” When it’s definitely an AI slop pumping mechanism. TBH his comment is probably part of the campaign.
- torcete 11mo agoOh, I wrote "asian ai guy" because that's the name people are using in these YouTube videos. Maybe you are right and the video is just ai slop. I just wanted to share it, because I learnt with them how futures, arbitrage and market manipulation works. Also, I can assure you that I am not part of any campaign, but of course, what else would I say?
- msuniverse2026 11mo agoWhat? Did you even read the first sentence he wrote?
- whatamidoingyo 11mo agoThis absolutely hurts my soul. Pre-covid, I religiously saved silver (and gold). Just bought some every single paycheck for like 6 years. I had coins, jewelry, bars, silverware, etc. I wished my parents had left me a treasure, but they didn't, so I thought I'd do that for my kids, maybe even leave them a map... But I don't have kids, so after being locked in my house during covid, I kind of went a bit crazy. I sold it all and moved states (after travelling quite a bit). My collection was quite massive, and I 100% knew that this day would come, but I didn't care, I just needed a new view. I live near the beach now, but... if I just held, I'd be in a much better place. I hate myself a bit for selling.
- therobots927 11mo agoYou have to try to not think like that. I know because I’ve been in similar places with investments. Just try to focus on gratitude.
- whatamidoingyo 11mo agoYou're right. What's done is done, and there's no going back now.
- mothballed 11mo agoIf you sold it and bought housing 4+ years ago when interest rates were near zero you've still got the last laugh. People holding dollars instead of PMs or real estate are the real bag holders. Not only are they actively paying for those fed generated artificial interest rate negative real rate mortgages that property owners got (paid for via inflation on non property owners), they missed out on massive appreciation of property and PMs. They are literally paying the richest people to become even richer, and paying them for the privilege to get further and further away from ever owning their own home. If you sold in 2023 or 2024 though, you basically got fucked both ways.
- lentil_soup 11mo agoPM?
- jmyeet 11mo agoI'm surprised the WSJ didn't have any depth on what's happened and why. "Backwardation" is a term that must be used here. That's where the spot price was higher than the future price. For anyone unfamiliar, pretty much any commodity can trade under a futures contract. That means you as a producer or consumer can lock in a price at a future point. But you must come up with the commodity on that date or come up with the money and take delivery. So imagine the spot (current) price is $70/oz but the future price is $65/oz. That means nobody is really buying at $70 when a price a month out is $65. So how does this happen/ Because dealers in the market have written futures contracts for silver they don't have and they will have to buy at the spot price to cover it at some point. They either don't want to or can't. Best case scenario, they're going to take a massive loss. Worst case, they are insolvent. So there was little to no activity at the spot price even though it's at a record high. Refiners weren't buying. There's a market for borrowing silver from people who have it and that market exploded this year as these dealers sought temporary relief for the futures contracts they had to cover. All of this signaled that banks and refiners were essentially conspiring to suppress silver prices to remain solvent and that at some point the dam was going to burst. And it did because China, who refines 60-70% of the world's silver, decided they would cease exports because of local demand for things like solar panels. So here we are.
- igftiuhugfduh 11mo agoNo major bank has an unhedged silver position remotely large enough to risk its solvency, the market is just not large enough. When I read this kind of conspiracy post I think you're long and talking your book.
- jmyeet 11mo agoSo your position is that I have a long position and I somehow think that I can move the global silver market by commenting on HN? Do I have that right? This all might be new to you but it's not news and it's not controversial (eg [1]). [1]: https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-500-nasdaq-set-to-rally-as-trade-fears-ease-gold-silver-at-records/card/silver-prices-soar-to-new-records-as-physical-shortage-disrupts-markets-bank-of-america-sees-65-ahead--OJUjKR2W4PE9r6w3WmwZ https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-...
- ForgottenMail 11mo agoFor every person on this thread, this is the best advice I ever got investing: Any trade that gains money is a good trade. If anyone knew how any companies stock would turn out, Bitcoin, and PM'S would turn out, congratulations you discovered out time travel would break the economy:D