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Memory prices will rise short term and generally fall long term, even with the current supply hiccup the answer is to just build out more capacity (which will h

Memory prices will rise short term and generally fall long term, even with the current supply hiccup the answer is to just build out more capacity (which will happen if there is healthy competition). I meant, I expect the other mobile chip providers to adopt unified architecture and beefy GPU cores on chip and lots of bandwidth to connect it to memory (at the max or ultra level, at least), I think AMD is already doing UM at least?

spwa4 11mo ago
> Memory prices will rise short term and generally fall long term, even with the current supply hiccup the answer is to just build out more capacity (which will happen if there is healthy competition) Don't worry! Sam Altman is on it. Making sure there never is healthy competition that is. https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram-deal https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram...
- seanmcdirmid 11mo ago
  We’ve been through multiple cycles of scarcity/surplus DRAM cycles in the last couple of decades. Why do we think it will be different now?
  - re-thc 11mo ago
    > Why do we think it will be different now? Margins. AI usage can pay a lot more. Even if they sell less than can still be more profitable. In the past there wasn’t a high margin usage. Servers didn’t charge such a high premium.
    - zozbot234 11mo ago
      High margins are exactly what should create a strong incentive to build more capacity. But that dynamic has been tamped down so far because we're all scared of a possible AI bubble that might pop at any moment.
    - seanmcdirmid 11mo ago
      Do you not think that some DRAM producer isn't going to see the high margins as a signal to create more capacity to get ahead of the other DRAM producers? This is how it always has worked before, but somehow it is different this time?
      - re-thc 11mo ago
        > Do you not think that some DRAM producer isn't going to see the high margins as a signal to create more capacity to get ahead of the other DRAM producers? They took the bite during COVID and failed, so there's still fear from over supply.
        seanmcdirmid 11mo ago
        It only works if they collude on keeping supply steady. If anyone gets greedy for a bigger share of the AI pie, then it implodes quickly. Not all DRAM is made in South Korea so some nationalism will muddy the waters as well.

spwa4 11mo ago

> Memory prices will rise short term and generally fall long term, even with the current supply hiccup the answer is to just build out more capacity (which will happen if there is healthy competition) Don't worry! Sam Altman is on it. Making sure there never is healthy competition that is. https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram-deal https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram...

seanmcdirmid 11mo ago
We’ve been through multiple cycles of scarcity/surplus DRAM cycles in the last couple of decades. Why do we think it will be different now?
- re-thc 11mo ago
  > Why do we think it will be different now? Margins. AI usage can pay a lot more. Even if they sell less than can still be more profitable. In the past there wasn’t a high margin usage. Servers didn’t charge such a high premium.
  - zozbot234 11mo ago
    High margins are exactly what should create a strong incentive to build more capacity. But that dynamic has been tamped down so far because we're all scared of a possible AI bubble that might pop at any moment.
  - seanmcdirmid 11mo ago
    Do you not think that some DRAM producer isn't going to see the high margins as a signal to create more capacity to get ahead of the other DRAM producers? This is how it always has worked before, but somehow it is different this time?
    - re-thc 11mo ago
      > Do you not think that some DRAM producer isn't going to see the high margins as a signal to create more capacity to get ahead of the other DRAM producers? They took the bite during COVID and failed, so there's still fear from over supply.
      - seanmcdirmid 11mo ago
        It only works if they collude on keeping supply steady. If anyone gets greedy for a bigger share of the AI pie, then it implodes quickly. Not all DRAM is made in South Korea so some nationalism will muddy the waters as well.