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I'd argue ASML's moat isn't the machine itself but the ecosystem: Carl Zeiss optics, decades of supplier relationships, institutional knowledge. This is clearl
by darkamaul 10mo ago
I'd argue ASML's moat isn't the machine itself but the ecosystem: Carl Zeiss optics, decades of supplier relationships, institutional knowledge.
This is clearly a significant achievement, but does anyone with semiconductor experience have a sense of how far "generates EUV light" is from "production-ready tool"?
- markus_zhang 10mo agoI agree. They have a long way to go. There is also something happening in Shanghai but I don’t know the progression.
- mk89 10mo agoThey are "extracting" optical devices from other machines, imagine how desperate they are for this "machine". As I ironically said in another comment, all you need is a retired Chinese ex employee at Zeiss. Nothing can stay private or secret forever, and they have the money and people to achieve that. Even if it takes them another 5 years to reach what we have today.
- Herring 10mo agoI bet the ex employee doesn't even have to be Chinese. I'm not, but get me FAANG-level salaries and decent working hours I'll 你好 all you want.
- rnewme 10mo ago我们不会大声说这种话。
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- _zagj 10mo ago> I bet the ex employee doesn't even have to be Chinese. That bit struck me as naive, given the instances of Americans who aren't Chinese nationals, or even ethnically Chinese at all, caught committing actual espionage on behalf of China.
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- coliveira 10mo agoGiven the current high prices for chips and memory due to "AI" artificial resource scarcity, the world will welcome the additional chip production from China.
- bgnn 10mo agoThey are nowhere close to beat ASML. This isn't a moat ASML can keep for long though. There can be alternatove technologies to achieve the same goal. So far only China has that incentive. The real problem is process scaling is slowing down. How many more generations of lithography machines will ASML design? Probably not many. This means there will be no edge left in 5 or 10 years, as eventually brute force will work and China will achieve the same lithography resolution. Till that point, they are just going all in with cheap coal + solar, so even if they use older machines and run longer exposure times, even if they achieve lower yields and toss away a lot of the dies, they are still economically competitive. At the end cheap enery solves a lot of the issues.
- petre 10mo agoNo, they won't beat ASML but they'll be good enough and most importantly cheap. And they'll catch up eventually.
- bgnn 10mo agoThat's basically what I said, no?
- askvictor 10mo ago> So far only China has that incentive. The US is close to having that incentive, if the rift between the US and Europe keeps widening. The Netherlands has one lever, but damn it's a long one.
- renewiltord 10mo agoASML develops and ships their machines at the pleasure of Uncle Sam because the USA licensed them the tech and remains a crucial part of the supply chain intentionally. It's not a lever. It's a partnership that is mutually beneficial and neither side can really ruin the other without damaging themselves.
- saubeidl 10mo ago
- lofaszvanitt 10mo agoPlus the deliberately overcomplicated parts.