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> Very few actual civilians ended up hurt by the detonations, much fewer than attacks by conventional weapons. The reports are 4,000 wounded and 12 killed unin

by tw04 10mo ago

> Very few actual civilians ended up hurt by the detonations, much fewer than attacks by conventional weapons. The reports are 4,000 wounded and 12 killed unintended targets in order to kill 42 targets. On what planet is that “very few actual civilians”? I think you knew full well before posting that’s a ridiculous claim which is why you did it anonymously.

kyboren 10mo ago
> The reports are 4,000 wounded and 12 killed unintended targets Which reports? According to whom? Hezbollah?
- shykes 10mo ago
  I vouched for your post because your question is legitimate and asked in an appropriate manner; there is no good reason to flag it. The answer to your question is yes: the "4,000 civilians wounded" figure is attributed to Mustafa Bairam, a high-ranking Hezbollah member. I have not seem any corroborating sources. As far as I can tell every mention of that number, including Wikipedia, traces back to him. Obviously this is a highly biased source that should not be trusted blindly.
dralley 10mo ago
"The reports" are that 12 were killed total, not that 12 civilians were killed. Only 2 of the killed were civilians as far as I can tell. Several of those who people on Twitter tried to claim were civilians, including a doctor, were admitted by Hezbollah to be Hezbollah members and given Hezbollah funerals. I've never heard of "42 targets", and given 12 people died total, obviously 42 targets were not killed. You should provide some sourcing for your numbers.
- ada1981 10mo ago
  Incorrect. The reports are 42 total killed, 12 civilians including 2 children. "Operation Grim Beeper" (seriously) on Wikipedia cites these numbers from Lebanese government. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Lebanon_electronic_device_attacks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Lebanon_electronic_device...
  - dralley 10mo ago
    Fair enough, 12 total only includes the original pager attack, not the subsequent radio one. However, you seem to have made the same mistake. 42 people were killed total, but that does not mean that there were 42 targets. In any case, if Hezbollah themselves admit that 1500 of their fighters were injured by the attack (according to your own source), it seems extremely dishonest to claim that all 4000 were civilians or that there were only 42 targets.
    - ada1981 10mo ago
      I didn't say 42 targets. Per the report: 42 dead, 12 of which were civilians. It follows that 30 were considered Hezbollah.
      - ada1981 10mo ago
        The report is 4,000 civilians injured (which means they just didn't die -- people lost fingers, limbs, eyes, etc.) Presumably if you have thousands of Hezbola people walking around within their homes, businesses, hopistals, shops, etc. it makes sense you'd have many civilian injuries when these went off. There wasn't a geo fence around them and if someone was in an NICU or preschool the explosions were indiscriminate. So while there was some element of precision in placement of who had these pagers, there was zero awareness (by design) to where they actually were when they all exploded.
        breppp 10mo ago
        but we have the benefit of seeing live videos from actual shops where these hezbollah members were, and you can see the explosion was small enough to not hurt anyone in the vicinity even if very close, one of the videos shows a supermarket line, and no one around is hurt
        mlyle 10mo ago
        I haven't seen a report of 4000 civilians injured. I have seen a report of 4000 people injured across the two attacks, but presumably some fraction of these are targets. 42 killed, of whom Hezbollah said 12 were civilians (later admitting some of the 12 were fighters). Historical average is about half of the wounded or killed in conflicts to be civilians. < 12/42 would be a relatively "good" ratio.
ada1981 10mo ago
For the IDF, a 28.6% civilian death rate is actually quite good. Their own classified data reveals an 83% civilian casualty rate in Gaza—nearly three times worse. The Lebanon pager attack: 12 civilians (including 2 children) killed out of 42 total deaths (28.6% civilian casualty rate). Gaza genocide: Leaked IDF intelligence documents show 8,900 militants killed out of 53,000 total deaths as of May 2025 (83% civilian casualty rate).
- breppp 10mo ago
  According to Hezbollah sources 1500 of their terrorists were taken out of commission due to this attack. Making the death ratio 42/1500 or 3% while if only taking the civilian ratio that's even lower. Even the 12 civilian count is probably higher than reality because it is doubtful that 12 civilians had access to a military clandestine communication device https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollahs-tunnels-flexible-command-weather-israels-deadly-blows-2024-09-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollahs-tunnels... Regarding the leaked IDF document this was leaked to a minor blog yet cannot be seen anywhere. But let's entertain it as real, these are 8000 named Hamas terrorists known for certain by one intelligence unit in the IDF to be dead. This only means the minimum amount of Hamas terrorists, this doesn't take into account the other armed groups in Gaza that had a prewar strength of 10,000s of terrorists or the Hamas members who are only known by uncertain intelligence to have been killed. Taking that number and reducing it from the Hamas published death count (an organization that kidnapped babies for political goals, but is incapable of lying, and was caught faking death counts before) to get the civilian death count is very unscientific to be extremely mild
  - ignoramous 10mo ago
    [flagged]
  - guelo 10mo ago
    [flagged]
    - breppp 10mo ago
fabian2k 10mo ago
The numbers you state are from the Lebanese government and Hizbollah. So I don't think we can assume they are accurate. I don't have any better numbers, though. You specific argument though misuses even those numbers. 42 is the number of people actually killed. I couldn't figure out how many were targeted (how many pagers did explode), but I'd assume the number could be much higher than the number of deaths. Without that number we cannot determine how well targeted this was. I also don't think it is plausible that for every target you injure 100 bystanders. So I would assume the number of targets was at least an order of magnitude higher. There's also another number from Hizbollah, that 1500 of their people were injured. But no idea it those would be included in the 4000 wounded number.
worldsavior 10mo ago
> in order to kill 42 targets. This is not correct. Each one that had this pager was connected to Hezbollah, i.e. a soldier of Hezbollah. This attack was meant to "disable" a very big portion of Hezbollah, which it did (4000 of them). This is one of the most sophisticated attacks to avoid civilian casualty.
- j_maffe 10mo ago
  > This is one of the most sophisticated attacks to avoid civilian casualty. 127 civilians Lebanese civilians killed since the ceasefire by the party you claim is avoiding civilian casualties, btw. very careful bunch
sixstringninja 10mo ago
source?

by tw04 10mo ago

kyboren 10mo ago

> The reports are 4,000 wounded and 12 killed unintended targets Which reports? According to whom? Hezbollah?

shykes 10mo ago
I vouched for your post because your question is legitimate and asked in an appropriate manner; there is no good reason to flag it. The answer to your question is yes: the "4,000 civilians wounded" figure is attributed to Mustafa Bairam, a high-ranking Hezbollah member. I have not seem any corroborating sources. As far as I can tell every mention of that number, including Wikipedia, traces back to him. Obviously this is a highly biased source that should not be trusted blindly.

dralley 10mo ago

"The reports" are that 12 were killed total, not that 12 civilians were killed. Only 2 of the killed were civilians as far as I can tell. Several of those who people on Twitter tried to claim were civilians, including a doctor, were admitted by Hezbollah to be Hezbollah members and given Hezbollah funerals. I've never heard of "42 targets", and given 12 people died total, obviously 42 targets were not killed. You should provide some sourcing for your numbers.

ada1981 10mo ago
Incorrect. The reports are 42 total killed, 12 civilians including 2 children. "Operation Grim Beeper" (seriously) on Wikipedia cites these numbers from Lebanese government. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Lebanon_electronic_device_attacks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Lebanon_electronic_device...
- dralley 10mo ago
  Fair enough, 12 total only includes the original pager attack, not the subsequent radio one. However, you seem to have made the same mistake. 42 people were killed total, but that does not mean that there were 42 targets. In any case, if Hezbollah themselves admit that 1500 of their fighters were injured by the attack (according to your own source), it seems extremely dishonest to claim that all 4000 were civilians or that there were only 42 targets.
  - ada1981 10mo ago
    I didn't say 42 targets. Per the report: 42 dead, 12 of which were civilians. It follows that 30 were considered Hezbollah.
    - ada1981 10mo ago
      The report is 4,000 civilians injured (which means they just didn't die -- people lost fingers, limbs, eyes, etc.) Presumably if you have thousands of Hezbola people walking around within their homes, businesses, hopistals, shops, etc. it makes sense you'd have many civilian injuries when these went off. There wasn't a geo fence around them and if someone was in an NICU or preschool the explosions were indiscriminate. So while there was some element of precision in placement of who had these pagers, there was zero awareness (by design) to where they actually were when they all exploded.
      - breppp 10mo ago
        but we have the benefit of seeing live videos from actual shops where these hezbollah members were, and you can see the explosion was small enough to not hurt anyone in the vicinity even if very close, one of the videos shows a supermarket line, and no one around is hurt
      - mlyle 10mo ago
        I haven't seen a report of 4000 civilians injured. I have seen a report of 4000 people injured across the two attacks, but presumably some fraction of these are targets. 42 killed, of whom Hezbollah said 12 were civilians (later admitting some of the 12 were fighters). Historical average is about half of the wounded or killed in conflicts to be civilians. < 12/42 would be a relatively "good" ratio.

ada1981 10mo ago

For the IDF, a 28.6% civilian death rate is actually quite good. Their own classified data reveals an 83% civilian casualty rate in Gaza—nearly three times worse. The Lebanon pager attack: 12 civilians (including 2 children) killed out of 42 total deaths (28.6% civilian casualty rate). Gaza genocide: Leaked IDF intelligence documents show 8,900 militants killed out of 53,000 total deaths as of May 2025 (83% civilian casualty rate).

breppp 10mo ago
According to Hezbollah sources 1500 of their terrorists were taken out of commission due to this attack. Making the death ratio 42/1500 or 3% while if only taking the civilian ratio that's even lower. Even the 12 civilian count is probably higher than reality because it is doubtful that 12 civilians had access to a military clandestine communication device https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollahs-tunnels-flexible-command-weather-israels-deadly-blows-2024-09-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollahs-tunnels... Regarding the leaked IDF document this was leaked to a minor blog yet cannot be seen anywhere. But let's entertain it as real, these are 8000 named Hamas terrorists known for certain by one intelligence unit in the IDF to be dead. This only means the minimum amount of Hamas terrorists, this doesn't take into account the other armed groups in Gaza that had a prewar strength of 10,000s of terrorists or the Hamas members who are only known by uncertain intelligence to have been killed. Taking that number and reducing it from the Hamas published death count (an organization that kidnapped babies for political goals, but is incapable of lying, and was caught faking death counts before) to get the civilian death count is very unscientific to be extremely mild
- ignoramous 10mo ago
  [flagged]
- guelo 10mo ago
  [flagged]
  - breppp 10mo ago

fabian2k 10mo ago

The numbers you state are from the Lebanese government and Hizbollah. So I don't think we can assume they are accurate. I don't have any better numbers, though. You specific argument though misuses even those numbers. 42 is the number of people actually killed. I couldn't figure out how many were targeted (how many pagers did explode), but I'd assume the number could be much higher than the number of deaths. Without that number we cannot determine how well targeted this was. I also don't think it is plausible that for every target you injure 100 bystanders. So I would assume the number of targets was at least an order of magnitude higher. There's also another number from Hizbollah, that 1500 of their people were injured. But no idea it those would be included in the 4000 wounded number.

worldsavior 10mo ago

> in order to kill 42 targets. This is not correct. Each one that had this pager was connected to Hezbollah, i.e. a soldier of Hezbollah. This attack was meant to "disable" a very big portion of Hezbollah, which it did (4000 of them). This is one of the most sophisticated attacks to avoid civilian casualty.

j_maffe 10mo ago
> This is one of the most sophisticated attacks to avoid civilian casualty. 127 civilians Lebanese civilians killed since the ceasefire by the party you claim is avoiding civilian casualties, btw. very careful bunch

sixstringninja 10mo ago

source?