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China's energy buildout is still mostly coal. Go look at the last 20 years how much energy they've added for coal vs solar. Dont fall for the "solar has increas
by AuthAuth 10mo ago
China's energy buildout is still mostly coal. Go look at the last 20 years how much energy they've added for coal vs solar. Dont fall for the "solar has increased by 500%" trap.
- nandomrumber 10mo agoYou’re absolutely correct. China didn’t start adding much in the way of solar prior to about 2020, whereas they added lots of coal generation in the past 20 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China
- seanmcdirmid 10mo agoThey are replacing old coal plants with more efficient cleaner designers. National security wise they still have lots of coal to work with, while most renewable energy is generated in the west where ongoing grid upgrades are needed to use it where people live (in the east).
- fpoling 10mo agoThe newer plants not only more efficient going from 30-35% of peak efficiency to something like 45%, they can also operate efficiently over wider range of power output and are faster to turn on/off. This is very helpful to deal with variability with renewable output.
- pfdietz 10mo agoCoal consumption has peaked there. Solar is growing explosively.
- specialist 10mo agoYes and: Recent Volts episode has great overview of China's electro-tech build out, world is at or near peak fossil fuel across all sectors and countries (with 1 notable exception), etc. Clean electrification is inevitable - A conversation with Kingsmill Bond of Ember Energy. [2025/11/21] https://www.volts.wtf/p/clean-electrification-is-inevitable https://www.volts.wtf/p/clean-electrification-is-inevitable
- AuthAuth 10mo agoDont you think its a bit naive to be saying something peaked when it hasnt even been a year?
- rgmerk 10mo agoThe economics are pretty strikingly in favour of renewables and batteries, and one thing China does not have is cheap natural gas.
- AuthAuth 10mo agoIn the past 5 years do you think China has added more solar or more coal power?
- pfdietz 10mo agoWhy would that matter? PV and storage costs change very rapidly, so going even five years into the past would be very misleading.
- AuthAuth 10mo agoIf they can change rapidly how can you confidently assert the peak was this year?
- pfdietz 10mo agoBecause coal use was increasing before this year, but the increase was very small this year. So, continued rapid installation of solar/wind/storage will likely lead to a decline in coal use next year. What, you think continued rapid decrease in cost of solar and storage will somehow make this not happen?
- trollbridge 10mo agoWhich begs the question of why AI DCs can’t be powered with their own solar they build out themselves.
- t_tsonev 10mo agoNo fundamental reason not to power them with renewables, either off-grid or with a small capacity grid connection. The argument that they need to run at full load 24x7 sounds more like a business requirement than a technical one. LLMs in particular with their stateless nature seem like an ideal candidate for global distribution.
- trollbridge 10mo agoThe capital cost of the AI hardware is high and it depreciates quickly, being worthless in 5 years (or less). To make a profit, it needs to be run 24/7. It’s sort of like how airlines like to fly their airplanes as much as possible.