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Managed to talk about china's energy buildout _without_ mention of renewables? I think this pivot is 100% designed to get government money: - natrual gas turbin

by fyrn_ 10mo ago

Managed to talk about china's energy buildout _without_ mention of renewables? I think this pivot is 100% designed to get government money: - natrual gas turbine - china is scary - something something it's a race - china energy is good because no regulations, totally not because they are lapping the world on renewable buildout

marze 10mo ago
If China had "no regulations" and was building out 100% coal, no one would be worrying that China industry would have an advantage due to low electricity cost vs rest of world.
AuthAuth 10mo ago
China's energy buildout is still mostly coal. Go look at the last 20 years how much energy they've added for coal vs solar. Dont fall for the "solar has increased by 500%" trap.
- nandomrumber 10mo ago
  You’re absolutely correct. China didn’t start adding much in the way of solar prior to about 2020, whereas they added lots of coal generation in the past 20 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China
  - seanmcdirmid 10mo ago
    They are replacing old coal plants with more efficient cleaner designers. National security wise they still have lots of coal to work with, while most renewable energy is generated in the west where ongoing grid upgrades are needed to use it where people live (in the east).
    - fpoling 10mo ago
      The newer plants not only more efficient going from 30-35% of peak efficiency to something like 45%, they can also operate efficiently over wider range of power output and are faster to turn on/off. This is very helpful to deal with variability with renewable output.
- pfdietz 10mo ago
  Coal consumption has peaked there. Solar is growing explosively.
  - specialist 10mo ago
    Yes and: Recent Volts episode has great overview of China's electro-tech build out, world is at or near peak fossil fuel across all sectors and countries (with 1 notable exception), etc. Clean electrification is inevitable - A conversation with Kingsmill Bond of Ember Energy. [2025/11/21] https://www.volts.wtf/p/clean-electrification-is-inevitable https://www.volts.wtf/p/clean-electrification-is-inevitable
  - AuthAuth 10mo ago
    Dont you think its a bit naive to be saying something peaked when it hasnt even been a year?
    - rgmerk 10mo ago
      The economics are pretty strikingly in favour of renewables and batteries, and one thing China does not have is cheap natural gas.
      - AuthAuth 10mo ago
        In the past 5 years do you think China has added more solar or more coal power?
        pfdietz 10mo ago
        Why would that matter? PV and storage costs change very rapidly, so going even five years into the past would be very misleading.
        AuthAuth 10mo ago
        If they can change rapidly how can you confidently assert the peak was this year?
dzonga 10mo ago
China alone this year has added 221GW of Solar Energy, which is about 2x the rest of the world combined. it's a nice pivot though - turbines are just turbines.
pfdietz 10mo ago
Turbines are useful even in a 100% renewable powered world.
- gridspy 10mo ago
  Perhaps not in a 100% world, though I'll give you the point that they are useful now. In a 100% renewable world we would not be extracting or refining oil. Natural gas (used by these turbines) is a byproduct of oil drilling. Were we not burning the oil, the natural gas might be too expensive alone. Also, in a 100% renewable world we would (by definition) have enough generation all the time - (covered by batteries and good baseload sources) that turbine power was no longer required to cover peak loads.
  - rgmerk 10mo ago
    It's not clear (yet) what a 100% clean energy powered world would use to cover the last couple of percent of demand when loads peak and/or variable generation troughs for extended periods. It'll be some combination of demand management (which isn't nearly as horrifying as people make it out to be), pumped hydro, long-duration batteries like iron-air, but also possibly burning hydrogen or hydrogen-derived synthetic fuels (produced by electrolysis when hydrogen is abundant) and/or biofuels in turbines.
    - mannykannot 10mo ago
      There is a time- honored, straightforward way to deal with the last two percent problem, which is to overbuild by a couple of percent or so.
      - rgmerk 10mo ago
        That’s not how the maths works unfortunately. Basically, you end up having to overbuild to crazy levels, or build insane amounts of battery storage, which only gets used a few days a year.
        10mo ago

by fyrn_ 10mo ago

marze 10mo ago

If China had "no regulations" and was building out 100% coal, no one would be worrying that China industry would have an advantage due to low electricity cost vs rest of world.

AuthAuth 10mo ago

China's energy buildout is still mostly coal. Go look at the last 20 years how much energy they've added for coal vs solar. Dont fall for the "solar has increased by 500%" trap.

nandomrumber 10mo ago
You’re absolutely correct. China didn’t start adding much in the way of solar prior to about 2020, whereas they added lots of coal generation in the past 20 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China
- seanmcdirmid 10mo ago
  They are replacing old coal plants with more efficient cleaner designers. National security wise they still have lots of coal to work with, while most renewable energy is generated in the west where ongoing grid upgrades are needed to use it where people live (in the east).
  - fpoling 10mo ago
    The newer plants not only more efficient going from 30-35% of peak efficiency to something like 45%, they can also operate efficiently over wider range of power output and are faster to turn on/off. This is very helpful to deal with variability with renewable output.
pfdietz 10mo ago
Coal consumption has peaked there. Solar is growing explosively.
- specialist 10mo ago
  Yes and: Recent Volts episode has great overview of China's electro-tech build out, world is at or near peak fossil fuel across all sectors and countries (with 1 notable exception), etc. Clean electrification is inevitable - A conversation with Kingsmill Bond of Ember Energy. [2025/11/21] https://www.volts.wtf/p/clean-electrification-is-inevitable https://www.volts.wtf/p/clean-electrification-is-inevitable
- AuthAuth 10mo ago
  Dont you think its a bit naive to be saying something peaked when it hasnt even been a year?
  - rgmerk 10mo ago
    The economics are pretty strikingly in favour of renewables and batteries, and one thing China does not have is cheap natural gas.
    - AuthAuth 10mo ago
      In the past 5 years do you think China has added more solar or more coal power?
      - pfdietz 10mo ago
        Why would that matter? PV and storage costs change very rapidly, so going even five years into the past would be very misleading.
        AuthAuth 10mo ago
        If they can change rapidly how can you confidently assert the peak was this year?

dzonga 10mo ago

China alone this year has added 221GW of Solar Energy, which is about 2x the rest of the world combined. it's a nice pivot though - turbines are just turbines.

pfdietz 10mo ago

Turbines are useful even in a 100% renewable powered world.

gridspy 10mo ago
Perhaps not in a 100% world, though I'll give you the point that they are useful now. In a 100% renewable world we would not be extracting or refining oil. Natural gas (used by these turbines) is a byproduct of oil drilling. Were we not burning the oil, the natural gas might be too expensive alone. Also, in a 100% renewable world we would (by definition) have enough generation all the time - (covered by batteries and good baseload sources) that turbine power was no longer required to cover peak loads.
- rgmerk 10mo ago
  It's not clear (yet) what a 100% clean energy powered world would use to cover the last couple of percent of demand when loads peak and/or variable generation troughs for extended periods. It'll be some combination of demand management (which isn't nearly as horrifying as people make it out to be), pumped hydro, long-duration batteries like iron-air, but also possibly burning hydrogen or hydrogen-derived synthetic fuels (produced by electrolysis when hydrogen is abundant) and/or biofuels in turbines.
  - mannykannot 10mo ago
    There is a time- honored, straightforward way to deal with the last two percent problem, which is to overbuild by a couple of percent or so.
    - rgmerk 10mo ago
      That’s not how the maths works unfortunately. Basically, you end up having to overbuild to crazy levels, or build insane amounts of battery storage, which only gets used a few days a year.
      - 10mo ago