3 ms·

build. more. and this problem will go away.

by postflopclarity 10mo ago

ryanmcbride 10mo ago
Not if private equity just snatches it all up. Yes build more. Also regulate the oligarchs until they no longer exist.
- api 10mo ago
  PE buying real estate is a long bet on housing prices. If supply increases enough, prices flatten out and then fall, and the longs get crushed. These investments are a bet on continuing to under-build and under-densify.
  - swat535 10mo ago
    If they buy out all the supply, there will always be a shortage.
    - Ekaros 10mo ago
      So build so much they cannot rent all of it. Over supply will eventually drive down prices.
      - ryanmcbride 10mo ago
        who is going to do the building? Because PE is the one doing that too.
        verteu 10mo ago
        No, private equity appears to be a minority of home builders: https://www.builderonline.com/builder-100/builder-100-list/2025/ https://www.builderonline.com/builder-100/builder-100-list/2...
  - ryanmcbride 10mo ago
    Sounds like trickle down housing to me. Me: "should we stop allowing private equity to hold property?" My Strawman: "nah let's build more houses to be snatched up by private equity, that way eventually maybe they'll be really nice and decide to lower prices for us someday due to the infallible balance of supply and demand that definitely hasn't been rigged to hell over the past half century. They certainly won't just continue to rig the system to benefit themselves"
    - gruez 10mo ago
      >to the infallible balance of supply and demand that definitely hasn't been rigged to hell over the past half century How has "supply and demand" been "rigged"? A lack of supply isn't evidence of "supply and demand" being "rigged", it's it working exactly as predicted, not any different than oil prices going up when there's some geopolitical event threatening supply.
  - mikeg8 10mo ago
    its a good bet on their part (although i hate it). we obviously can't increase supply fast enough to keep up with demand in the current regulatory climate and with an existing shortage of skilled tradesmen and ratio of tradesman retiring out vs newcomers entering construction, there doesn't seem to be a feasible way to meaningfully increase supply.
  - hashhar 10mo ago
    The area I live in has homes that remain empty because the investor doesn't need the capital nor the space and just holds empty units for multiple years when they eventually sell (for even more than they would have sold in the past). Housing demand will always be > 0 as long as population is growing and hence there can never be a oversupply.
    - pastage 10mo ago
      In areas where there is demand without risk.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
  > Not if private equity just snatches it all up "As of December 2022, the five largest investors owned about 300,000 homes — just under 2% of single-family rental homes nationally." Where institutions dominate is in rentals: "institutional investors own roughly 2% to 25% of single-family rentals in major markets" [1];. [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2025/09/09/g-s1-87699/private-equity-corporate-landlords https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2025/09/09/g-s1-87...
quamserena 10mo ago
this sounds nice, but neglects the fact that (1) materials cost has gone up and (2) zoning requirements exist. (1) means its just more expensive to build overall, and (2) means that a lot of proposals for apartment complexes get voted down.
- hypeatei 10mo ago
  Part of building more is getting government (mostly) out of it so that things like zoning laws don't hamper new development. Obviously that is very hard to do at a local level when incumbent homeowners' housing values would be cut in half overnight.
  - pempem 10mo ago
    This is happening in california. In fact there are three current situations: 1/SB9 cutting R1 lots in half 2/ ADU laws, which let you build up to 3 homes/units where there was one and further, can be combined with SB 9 3/ AB2011 which lets you turn defunct strip malls into housing Honestly, this plus things like PermitFlow make me feel like we will be able to build enough. The issue will be making sure the housing is affordable rather than expensive and empty.
  - Spivak 10mo ago
    Well duh because "just make everyone underwater on their mortgage" is a bit of a silly solution that definitely won't have any second order effects.
    - hypeatei 10mo ago
      You're not wrong. There are multiple aspects of government involvement that require untangling which includes federally backed mortgages that allow banks to be more lax on loan terms (which is how we got 30 year loans and Trump proposing a 50 year)
  - JuniperMesos 10mo ago
    Actual NIMBY/YIMBY fights look like one level of government representing a lot of people who can't afford a primary residence fighting against a different level of government representing a lot of incumbent primary residence owners who are concerned on a personal level about the negative externalities of more people being able to live in their neighborhood. Government is happening no matter what.
jameslk 10mo ago
Supply constraints are a symptom of the problem, which is housing is a huge leveraged investment for many. You generally won’t get policies for building more when it negatively affects the finances of a majority of voters

build. more. and this problem will go away.

ryanmcbride 10mo ago

Not if private equity just snatches it all up. Yes build more. Also regulate the oligarchs until they no longer exist.

api 10mo ago
PE buying real estate is a long bet on housing prices. If supply increases enough, prices flatten out and then fall, and the longs get crushed. These investments are a bet on continuing to under-build and under-densify.
- swat535 10mo ago
  If they buy out all the supply, there will always be a shortage.
  - Ekaros 10mo ago
    So build so much they cannot rent all of it. Over supply will eventually drive down prices.
    - ryanmcbride 10mo ago
      who is going to do the building? Because PE is the one doing that too.
      - verteu 10mo ago
        No, private equity appears to be a minority of home builders: https://www.builderonline.com/builder-100/builder-100-list/2025/ https://www.builderonline.com/builder-100/builder-100-list/2...
- ryanmcbride 10mo ago
  Sounds like trickle down housing to me. Me: "should we stop allowing private equity to hold property?" My Strawman: "nah let's build more houses to be snatched up by private equity, that way eventually maybe they'll be really nice and decide to lower prices for us someday due to the infallible balance of supply and demand that definitely hasn't been rigged to hell over the past half century. They certainly won't just continue to rig the system to benefit themselves"
  - gruez 10mo ago
    >to the infallible balance of supply and demand that definitely hasn't been rigged to hell over the past half century How has "supply and demand" been "rigged"? A lack of supply isn't evidence of "supply and demand" being "rigged", it's it working exactly as predicted, not any different than oil prices going up when there's some geopolitical event threatening supply.
- mikeg8 10mo ago
  its a good bet on their part (although i hate it). we obviously can't increase supply fast enough to keep up with demand in the current regulatory climate and with an existing shortage of skilled tradesmen and ratio of tradesman retiring out vs newcomers entering construction, there doesn't seem to be a feasible way to meaningfully increase supply.
- hashhar 10mo ago
  The area I live in has homes that remain empty because the investor doesn't need the capital nor the space and just holds empty units for multiple years when they eventually sell (for even more than they would have sold in the past). Housing demand will always be > 0 as long as population is growing and hence there can never be a oversupply.
  - pastage 10mo ago
    In areas where there is demand without risk.
JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
> Not if private equity just snatches it all up "As of December 2022, the five largest investors owned about 300,000 homes — just under 2% of single-family rental homes nationally." Where institutions dominate is in rentals: "institutional investors own roughly 2% to 25% of single-family rentals in major markets" [1];. [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2025/09/09/g-s1-87699/private-equity-corporate-landlords https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2025/09/09/g-s1-87...

quamserena 10mo ago

this sounds nice, but neglects the fact that (1) materials cost has gone up and (2) zoning requirements exist. (1) means its just more expensive to build overall, and (2) means that a lot of proposals for apartment complexes get voted down.

hypeatei 10mo ago
Part of building more is getting government (mostly) out of it so that things like zoning laws don't hamper new development. Obviously that is very hard to do at a local level when incumbent homeowners' housing values would be cut in half overnight.
- pempem 10mo ago
  This is happening in california. In fact there are three current situations: 1/SB9 cutting R1 lots in half 2/ ADU laws, which let you build up to 3 homes/units where there was one and further, can be combined with SB 9 3/ AB2011 which lets you turn defunct strip malls into housing Honestly, this plus things like PermitFlow make me feel like we will be able to build enough. The issue will be making sure the housing is affordable rather than expensive and empty.
- Spivak 10mo ago
  Well duh because "just make everyone underwater on their mortgage" is a bit of a silly solution that definitely won't have any second order effects.
  - hypeatei 10mo ago
    You're not wrong. There are multiple aspects of government involvement that require untangling which includes federally backed mortgages that allow banks to be more lax on loan terms (which is how we got 30 year loans and Trump proposing a 50 year)
- JuniperMesos 10mo ago
  Actual NIMBY/YIMBY fights look like one level of government representing a lot of people who can't afford a primary residence fighting against a different level of government representing a lot of incumbent primary residence owners who are concerned on a personal level about the negative externalities of more people being able to live in their neighborhood. Government is happening no matter what.

jameslk 10mo ago

Supply constraints are a symptom of the problem, which is housing is a huge leveraged investment for many. You generally won’t get policies for building more when it negatively affects the finances of a majority of voters