3 ms·

This is different than the July megaquake prophecy, which was indeed dumb. With a strong quake like this there will be aftershocks. Most will be small, but ther

This is different than the July megaquake prophecy, which was indeed dumb. With a strong quake like this there will be aftershocks. Most will be small, but there is a risk (about 5% according to the USGS) of an even stronger quake than the first within the next week or so [1]. I agree the parent will likely be fine, but it can be stressful in the aftermath of a large quake. And if they want to leave the area and have the opportunity to do so calmly and safely, I think that’s justified. [1] https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-foreshock-a-larger-earthquake https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-fore...

kulahan 10mo ago
Why was the July megaquake, an 8.8 magnitude, a dumb prophecy, but this "strong quake" at a magnitude of 7.6 is a smart prophecy?
- freetime2 10mo ago
  This isn’t something that I personally wish to debate, but I’ll leave link to the wikipedia page for the July 2025 prophecy [1] for anyone who may not know what we are talking about. And also point out that last night’s earthquake in Northern Japan was not a “prophecy”. Just a regular, large earthquake - which do occur pretty frequently in Japan. And I say "large" not just because of the magnitude, but because parts of Aomori experienced 6+ shaking on the shindo scale [2] which is categorized as "brutal" [3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prop... [2] https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eventID=20251208232600&lang=en https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eve... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_seismic_intensity_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_se...
  - sph 10mo ago
    Source: it came to me in a manga.
- scottlamb 10mo ago
  Strange question. The July megaquake prophecy scare was dumb because it originated in a work of fiction, not intended to be taken seriously by its author and not based on any scientific evidence. If the "prophecy" had come true, it'd be by luck alone. fwiw, I'd say it didn't come true; the 8.8 magnitude earthquake was near Kamchatka and didn't actually damage Japan, though a tsunami seemed plausible enough that there was a precautionary evacuation. This "strong quake" is a thing that happened, not a "smart prophecy" [1]. Talk of aftershocks is not a prophecy either; it's a common-sense prediction consistent with observations from many previous earthquakes. [1] smart prophecy is an oxymoron. A prediction is either based on scientific evidence (not a prophecy) or a (dumb) prophecy.
  - kulahan 10mo ago
    You are certainly reading something into my question that isn't there. I'm genuinely ignorant. I thought you were saying that predictions of a strong aftershock following an M8.8 were dumb, but the same thing following an M7.6 were smart. Is that not the case? Again, sorry if this seemed antagonistic or something, I really am just unsure of what you were saying.
    - refulgentis 10mo ago
      You asked what I would have asked, in a sentence, my understanding is: it was LITERALLY a prophecy, I.e. an unscientific statement out of thin air, that in July, there would be an earthquake followed by a larger one. Here, we have reality, an earthquake, ergo the first prong of a mega quake was satisfied, as opposed to prophesied.
      - kulahan 10mo ago
        Ah, that's probably it. Thank you.
    - deleted 10mo ago
      [deleted]
    - hnuser123456 10mo ago

kulahan 10mo ago

Why was the July megaquake, an 8.8 magnitude, a dumb prophecy, but this "strong quake" at a magnitude of 7.6 is a smart prophecy?

freetime2 10mo ago
This isn’t something that I personally wish to debate, but I’ll leave link to the wikipedia page for the July 2025 prophecy [1] for anyone who may not know what we are talking about. And also point out that last night’s earthquake in Northern Japan was not a “prophecy”. Just a regular, large earthquake - which do occur pretty frequently in Japan. And I say "large" not just because of the magnitude, but because parts of Aomori experienced 6+ shaking on the shindo scale [2] which is categorized as "brutal" [3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prop... [2] https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eventID=20251208232600&lang=en https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eve... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_seismic_intensity_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_se...
- sph 10mo ago
  Source: it came to me in a manga.
scottlamb 10mo ago
Strange question. The July megaquake prophecy scare was dumb because it originated in a work of fiction, not intended to be taken seriously by its author and not based on any scientific evidence. If the "prophecy" had come true, it'd be by luck alone. fwiw, I'd say it didn't come true; the 8.8 magnitude earthquake was near Kamchatka and didn't actually damage Japan, though a tsunami seemed plausible enough that there was a precautionary evacuation. This "strong quake" is a thing that happened, not a "smart prophecy" [1]. Talk of aftershocks is not a prophecy either; it's a common-sense prediction consistent with observations from many previous earthquakes. [1] smart prophecy is an oxymoron. A prediction is either based on scientific evidence (not a prophecy) or a (dumb) prophecy.
- kulahan 10mo ago
  You are certainly reading something into my question that isn't there. I'm genuinely ignorant. I thought you were saying that predictions of a strong aftershock following an M8.8 were dumb, but the same thing following an M7.6 were smart. Is that not the case? Again, sorry if this seemed antagonistic or something, I really am just unsure of what you were saying.
  - refulgentis 10mo ago
    You asked what I would have asked, in a sentence, my understanding is: it was LITERALLY a prophecy, I.e. an unscientific statement out of thin air, that in July, there would be an earthquake followed by a larger one. Here, we have reality, an earthquake, ergo the first prong of a mega quake was satisfied, as opposed to prophesied.
    - kulahan 10mo ago
      Ah, that's probably it. Thank you.
  - deleted 10mo ago
    [deleted]
  - hnuser123456 10mo ago