4 ms·

> They haven't really launched a successful major new product category in years How frequently do you expect a new major product category across the industry?

> They haven't really launched a successful major new product category in years How frequently do you expect a new major product category across the industry? Is there any company who launched one that wasn't ChatGPT in the same time frame?

soared 11mo ago
This is a good point, technically chromebooks fit this definition?
- throwaway31131 11mo ago
  I guess we’re being a bit vague on timeframe but chrome books launched in 2011 so they’re one of those products that took ~10 years to be an overnight success, with 2020 being an accelerant. So my vote is no.
- majormajor 11mo ago
  Personally I wouldn't count Chromebooks as something newer than Apple's last category-creating product since the iPad is in roughly the same time frame and netbooks a few years before that. The Apple Watch is newer and is where I'd say the cutoff is for Apple. -- At a higher level, I'd say there were two personal-computer-hardware revolution periods that Apple featured heavily in: 1) home personal computers and then the GUI-fication of them and the portable-ification - the wave the Apple II was part of, and then the one the Mac mainstreamed, then laptops where Apple was pretty instrumental in setting design and execution standards 2) mainstream general-purpose/software-defined mobile devices (vs single- or few-function gadgets). Initial failures or niche products (Newton from Apple, Palm/PocketPC more successfully as a niche later) and then Apple REALLY mainstreaming with the iPhone and the extensions that were the iPad and Watch. I'm leaving out the iPod here since "single-purpose MP3 players" were a transitional stop on the gadget->general purpose device trend. (But that general purpose nature also makes it hard to invent a new mobile device category.) Of things that have been percolating for a while, maybe VR/AR takes off one day, I'm not sure there's mass appeal there. Are people going to get enough utility over a phone to justify pop-up ads in their field-of-view all day long? It's possible the LLM/transformer boom could lead to some new categories, but we don't know what that would look like yet, so it's hard to penalize Apple for not being a super-early first-mover in the last 3 years since nobody else has figured out a great hardware story there either, and even in their prime they were less of a "first mover" than a "show everyone else how it could be done better" player.
- jimbokun 11mo ago
  Chromebooks were almost 15 years ago.
cyberax 11mo ago
Foldable phones are one example. Apple completely missed the boat here, while even freaking Google managed to make a decent device. Smart rings are booming. Apple has nothing, probably afraid that it can cannibalize their watch sales. If we look at the wider industry, EVs and self-driving cars are coming. Huawei has its own car now, along with a battery research program.
- pixelmelt 11mo ago
  What's the appeal of a foldable phone? Always assumed they were just a luxury item or party trick that would add more friction to the user experience
asdff 11mo ago
Apple used to put out new or interesting products. E.g. they just up and released Time Machine routers when no one was really doing that in the home router industry like at all, maybe a clunky usb ftp solution but this was first party apple white glove treatment of the issue. They had great software too in many different niches e.g. Aperture coming after Adobe's pro photo pie. It was amazing how much diversity in really well thought out hardware as well as software was happening at apple years ago, when it was a far smaller company in terms of manpower and resources than it is today. I guess when the business model is selling ongoing subscriptions instead of compelling new products in order to get money, you stop getting the compelling new products coming out.

soared 11mo ago

This is a good point, technically chromebooks fit this definition?

throwaway31131 11mo ago
I guess we’re being a bit vague on timeframe but chrome books launched in 2011 so they’re one of those products that took ~10 years to be an overnight success, with 2020 being an accelerant. So my vote is no.
majormajor 11mo ago
Personally I wouldn't count Chromebooks as something newer than Apple's last category-creating product since the iPad is in roughly the same time frame and netbooks a few years before that. The Apple Watch is newer and is where I'd say the cutoff is for Apple. -- At a higher level, I'd say there were two personal-computer-hardware revolution periods that Apple featured heavily in: 1) home personal computers and then the GUI-fication of them and the portable-ification - the wave the Apple II was part of, and then the one the Mac mainstreamed, then laptops where Apple was pretty instrumental in setting design and execution standards 2) mainstream general-purpose/software-defined mobile devices (vs single- or few-function gadgets). Initial failures or niche products (Newton from Apple, Palm/PocketPC more successfully as a niche later) and then Apple REALLY mainstreaming with the iPhone and the extensions that were the iPad and Watch. I'm leaving out the iPod here since "single-purpose MP3 players" were a transitional stop on the gadget->general purpose device trend. (But that general purpose nature also makes it hard to invent a new mobile device category.) Of things that have been percolating for a while, maybe VR/AR takes off one day, I'm not sure there's mass appeal there. Are people going to get enough utility over a phone to justify pop-up ads in their field-of-view all day long? It's possible the LLM/transformer boom could lead to some new categories, but we don't know what that would look like yet, so it's hard to penalize Apple for not being a super-early first-mover in the last 3 years since nobody else has figured out a great hardware story there either, and even in their prime they were less of a "first mover" than a "show everyone else how it could be done better" player.
jimbokun 11mo ago
Chromebooks were almost 15 years ago.

cyberax 11mo ago

Foldable phones are one example. Apple completely missed the boat here, while even freaking Google managed to make a decent device. Smart rings are booming. Apple has nothing, probably afraid that it can cannibalize their watch sales. If we look at the wider industry, EVs and self-driving cars are coming. Huawei has its own car now, along with a battery research program.

pixelmelt 11mo ago
What's the appeal of a foldable phone? Always assumed they were just a luxury item or party trick that would add more friction to the user experience

asdff 11mo ago

Apple used to put out new or interesting products. E.g. they just up and released Time Machine routers when no one was really doing that in the home router industry like at all, maybe a clunky usb ftp solution but this was first party apple white glove treatment of the issue. They had great software too in many different niches e.g. Aperture coming after Adobe's pro photo pie. It was amazing how much diversity in really well thought out hardware as well as software was happening at apple years ago, when it was a far smaller company in terms of manpower and resources than it is today. I guess when the business model is selling ongoing subscriptions instead of compelling new products in order to get money, you stop getting the compelling new products coming out.