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> In a statement, an Anthropic spokesperson said: “We have not made any decisions about when, or even whether, to go public.” They are going public.

by rvz 11mo ago

JosephjackJR 11mo ago
[flagged]
- pu_pe 11mo ago
  The optimistic view is that Anthropic is one of about four labs in the world capable of generating truly state-of-the-art models. Also, Claude Code is arguably the best tool in its category at the moment. They have the developer market locked in. The problem as I see it is that neither of those things are significant moats. Both OpenAI and Google have far better branding and a much larger user base, and Google also has far lower costs due to TPUs. Claude Code is neat but in the long run will definitely be replicated.
  - blitzar 11mo ago
    > Claude Code is arguably the best tool in its category at the moment. They have the developer market locked in. I am old enough (> 1 year old) to remember when Cursor had won the developer market from the previous winner copilot. Google or Apple should have locked down Anthropic.
    - pragmatic 11mo ago
      If they had, they would have killed it. Google should be stomping everyone else but it's ad addiction in search will hold it back. Innovators dilemma...
    - bionhoward 11mo ago
      Cursor still wins over Claude Code because Cursor has privacy mode
    - theptip 11mo ago
      > Cursor had won the developer market from the previous winner copilot It’s a fair point, but the counter-point is that back then these tools were ide plugins you could code up in a weekend. Ie closer to a consumer app. Now Claude Code is a somewhat mature enterprise platform with plenty of integrations that you’d need to chase too. And long-term enterprise sales contracts you’d need to sell into. Ie much more like an enterprise SAAS play. I don’t want to push this argument too far as I think their actual competitors (eg Google) could crank out the work required in 6-12 months if they decided to move in that direction, but it does protect them from some of the frothy VC-funded upstarts that simply can’t structurally compete in multi-year enterprise SAAS.
      - rvnx 11mo ago
        I'm not sure what is the advantage of Cursor ? It's just a VS Code plugin that sends queries to LLMs, why is it valued so much ? It's quite basic. Is there some sort of unlimited plan that people take advantage of ?
        camdenreslink 11mo ago
        It works well, and had first mover advantage. It also is a fork of VSCode, not just an extension/plugin.
        dana321 11mo ago
        Its really easy to use, you download, login and start working. Its a step up from copy-pasting from an llm. But claude code is on another level.
        fragmede 11mo ago
        Fun fact! You can use the word "just" in front of anything to make is sound trivial. Isn't planet Earth just one of eight planets in the Solar System? What's the big deal? Isn't Google just a website? Take out the word "just" and think on it a little. In this case, maybe there's something to that?
  - milowata 11mo ago
    The missing piece here is Anthropic is not playing the same game. Consumer branding and larger user base are concerns for OpenAI vs Google. Personal chatbot/companion/ search isn’t their focus. Anthropic is going for the enterprise and for developers. They have scooped up more of the enterprise API market than either Google or OpenAI, and almost half the developer market. Those big, long contracts and integration into developer workflows can end up as pretty strong moats.
  - SOLAR_FIELDS 11mo ago
    most of the secret sauce of Claude Code is visible to the world anyway, in the form of the minified JavaScript bundle they send. If you’re ever wondering about its inner workings you can simply ask it to deminify itself
  - SOLAR_FIELDS 11mo ago
    Most of the secret sauce of Claude Code is visible to the world anyway, in the form of the minified JavaScript bundle they send. If you’re ever wondering about its inner workings you can simply ask it to deminify itself
  - gtirloni 11mo ago
    > They have the developer market locked in Developers will jump ship to a better tool at a blink of an eye. I wouldn't call it locked in at all. In fact, people do use Claude Code and Codex simultaneously in some cases.
    - bostik 11mo ago
      Individual and startup devs yes. Enterprise devs, less so. The latter are locked in to whatever vendor(s) their corporate entity has subscribed to. In a perverse twist, this gives the approved[tm] vendors an incentive to add backend integrations to multiple different providers so that their actual end-users can - at least in theory - choose which models to use for their work.
  - sleepybrett 11mo ago
    > They have the developer market locked in. when has anything been 'locked in', someone comes with a better tool people will switch.
  - riku_iki 11mo ago
    > The optimistic view is that Anthropic is one of about four labs in the world capable of generating truly state-of-the-art models. what about Chinese models?..
- LatteLazy 11mo ago
  1. Sounds like exactly when early investors and insiders would want to cash in and when retail investors who “have heard of the company and like the product” will buy without a lot of financial analysis. 2. A 300bn IPO can mean actually raising n 300bn by selling 100% of the company. But it could also mean seeing 1% for 3bn right? Which seems like a trivial amount for the market to absorb no?
  - blitzar 11mo ago
    > A 300bn IPO ... raising 3bn Would be so massively oversubscribed that it would become a $600bn company by the end of the day (which is a good tactic for future fund raising too). I suspect if/when Anthropic does its next raise VCs will be buyers still not sellers.
- trjordan 11mo ago
  > the gap to GPT-4o, Gemini 2 ... is shrinking fast Are you ... aware that OpenAI and Google have launched more recent models?
  - anthonypasq 11mo ago
    almost every single AI doomer i listen to hasnt updated any of their priors in the last 2 years. these people are completely unaware of what is actually happening at the frontier or how much progress has been made.
    - nubg 11mo ago
      Their ignorance is your opportunity.
  - esafak 11mo ago
    That jumped out at me too. Like a time-traveling comment or something!
    - blovescoffee 11mo ago
      Like "someone" who's knowledge cutoff is from a while back...
      - deleted 11mo ago
        [deleted]
    - ctoth 11mo ago
      This is what happens when someone copies and pastes their old comment, note the other tells.
      - brazukadev 11mo ago
        Nope, more like a LLM that doesn't know about GPT 5 and Gemini 3
- deleted 11mo ago
  [deleted]
- jascha_eng 11mo ago
  > reportedly in the low single-digit billions at best They are expected to hit 9 billion by end of year. Meaning the valuation multiple is only 30x. Which is still steep but at that growth rate not totally unreasonable. https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/04/anthropic-expects-b2b-demand-to-boost-revenue-to-70b-in-2028-report/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/04/anthropic-expects-b2b-dema...
  - andrew_lettuce 11mo ago
    30 for a company that doesn't pay anything and may never pay off at all is crazy in my book, so as a best case scenario it's an obvious hard pass.
- whp_wessel 11mo ago
  is this comment created by AI? acc created in last 24 hours, lots of long ai-speak
- nbardy 11mo ago
  You haven’t actually looked at their fundamentals. They’re profitable serving current models including training costs and are only losing money on future RD training, but if you project future revenue growth on future generations of models you get a clear path to profitability. They charge higher costs than OpenAI and have faster growing API demand. They have great margins compared to the rest of the industry on inference. Sure the revenue growth could stop but it hasn’t and there is no reason to think it will.
  - disgruntledphd2 11mo ago
    > They’re profitable serving current models including training costs I hear this a lot, do you have a good source (apart from their CEO saying it in an interview). I might have more faith in him but checks notes, it's late 2025 and AI is not writing all our code yet (amongst other mental things he's said).
    - JohnnyMarcone 11mo ago
      We will all have a great source if they IPO :)
    - TSiege 11mo ago
      The best I kind is this tech crunch article, which appears to be referencing an article from the information that is pay walled. > The Information reports that Anthropic expects to generate as much as $70 billion in revenue and $17 billion in cash flow in 2028. The growth projections are fueled by rapid adoption of Anthropic’s business products, a person with knowledge of the company’s financials said. > That said, the company expects its gross profit margin — which measures a company’s profitability after accounting for direct costs associated with producing goods and services — to reach 50% this year and 77% in 2028, up from negative 94% last year, per The Information. https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/04/anthropic-expects-b2b-demand-to-boost-revenue-to-70b-in-2028-report/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/04/anthropic-expects-b2b-dema...
      - disgruntledphd2 11mo ago
- raldi 11mo ago
  Offtopic, but how do you get the special X to show up when you type “50–100×”?
  - variaga 11mo ago
    On my phone keyboard (android) "×" is a long-press on "w"
surgical_fire 11mo ago
Well, they have to. Every grift needs bagholders. If they get to be a memestock, they might even keep the grift going for a good while. See Tesla as a good example of this.

> In a statement, an Anthropic spokesperson said: “We have not made any decisions about when, or even whether, to go public.” They are going public.

by rvz 11mo ago

> In a statement, an Anthropic spokesperson said: “We have not made any decisions about when, or even whether, to go public.” They are going public.

JosephjackJR 11mo ago

[flagged]

pu_pe 11mo ago
The optimistic view is that Anthropic is one of about four labs in the world capable of generating truly state-of-the-art models. Also, Claude Code is arguably the best tool in its category at the moment. They have the developer market locked in. The problem as I see it is that neither of those things are significant moats. Both OpenAI and Google have far better branding and a much larger user base, and Google also has far lower costs due to TPUs. Claude Code is neat but in the long run will definitely be replicated.
- blitzar 11mo ago
  > Claude Code is arguably the best tool in its category at the moment. They have the developer market locked in. I am old enough (> 1 year old) to remember when Cursor had won the developer market from the previous winner copilot. Google or Apple should have locked down Anthropic.
  - pragmatic 11mo ago
    If they had, they would have killed it. Google should be stomping everyone else but it's ad addiction in search will hold it back. Innovators dilemma...
  - bionhoward 11mo ago
    Cursor still wins over Claude Code because Cursor has privacy mode
  - theptip 11mo ago
    > Cursor had won the developer market from the previous winner copilot It’s a fair point, but the counter-point is that back then these tools were ide plugins you could code up in a weekend. Ie closer to a consumer app. Now Claude Code is a somewhat mature enterprise platform with plenty of integrations that you’d need to chase too. And long-term enterprise sales contracts you’d need to sell into. Ie much more like an enterprise SAAS play. I don’t want to push this argument too far as I think their actual competitors (eg Google) could crank out the work required in 6-12 months if they decided to move in that direction, but it does protect them from some of the frothy VC-funded upstarts that simply can’t structurally compete in multi-year enterprise SAAS.
    - rvnx 11mo ago
      I'm not sure what is the advantage of Cursor ? It's just a VS Code plugin that sends queries to LLMs, why is it valued so much ? It's quite basic. Is there some sort of unlimited plan that people take advantage of ?
      - camdenreslink 11mo ago
        It works well, and had first mover advantage. It also is a fork of VSCode, not just an extension/plugin.
      - dana321 11mo ago
        Its really easy to use, you download, login and start working. Its a step up from copy-pasting from an llm. But claude code is on another level.
      - fragmede 11mo ago
        Fun fact! You can use the word "just" in front of anything to make is sound trivial. Isn't planet Earth just one of eight planets in the Solar System? What's the big deal? Isn't Google just a website? Take out the word "just" and think on it a little. In this case, maybe there's something to that?
- milowata 11mo ago
  The missing piece here is Anthropic is not playing the same game. Consumer branding and larger user base are concerns for OpenAI vs Google. Personal chatbot/companion/ search isn’t their focus. Anthropic is going for the enterprise and for developers. They have scooped up more of the enterprise API market than either Google or OpenAI, and almost half the developer market. Those big, long contracts and integration into developer workflows can end up as pretty strong moats.
- SOLAR_FIELDS 11mo ago
  most of the secret sauce of Claude Code is visible to the world anyway, in the form of the minified JavaScript bundle they send. If you’re ever wondering about its inner workings you can simply ask it to deminify itself
- SOLAR_FIELDS 11mo ago
  Most of the secret sauce of Claude Code is visible to the world anyway, in the form of the minified JavaScript bundle they send. If you’re ever wondering about its inner workings you can simply ask it to deminify itself
- gtirloni 11mo ago
  > They have the developer market locked in Developers will jump ship to a better tool at a blink of an eye. I wouldn't call it locked in at all. In fact, people do use Claude Code and Codex simultaneously in some cases.
  - bostik 11mo ago
    Individual and startup devs yes. Enterprise devs, less so. The latter are locked in to whatever vendor(s) their corporate entity has subscribed to. In a perverse twist, this gives the approved[tm] vendors an incentive to add backend integrations to multiple different providers so that their actual end-users can - at least in theory - choose which models to use for their work.
- sleepybrett 11mo ago
  > They have the developer market locked in. when has anything been 'locked in', someone comes with a better tool people will switch.
- riku_iki 11mo ago
  > The optimistic view is that Anthropic is one of about four labs in the world capable of generating truly state-of-the-art models. what about Chinese models?..
LatteLazy 11mo ago
1. Sounds like exactly when early investors and insiders would want to cash in and when retail investors who “have heard of the company and like the product” will buy without a lot of financial analysis. 2. A 300bn IPO can mean actually raising n 300bn by selling 100% of the company. But it could also mean seeing 1% for 3bn right? Which seems like a trivial amount for the market to absorb no?
- blitzar 11mo ago
  > A 300bn IPO ... raising 3bn Would be so massively oversubscribed that it would become a $600bn company by the end of the day (which is a good tactic for future fund raising too). I suspect if/when Anthropic does its next raise VCs will be buyers still not sellers.
trjordan 11mo ago
> the gap to GPT-4o, Gemini 2 ... is shrinking fast Are you ... aware that OpenAI and Google have launched more recent models?
- anthonypasq 11mo ago
  almost every single AI doomer i listen to hasnt updated any of their priors in the last 2 years. these people are completely unaware of what is actually happening at the frontier or how much progress has been made.
  - nubg 11mo ago
    Their ignorance is your opportunity.
- esafak 11mo ago
  That jumped out at me too. Like a time-traveling comment or something!
  - blovescoffee 11mo ago
    Like "someone" who's knowledge cutoff is from a while back...
    - deleted 11mo ago
      [deleted]
  - ctoth 11mo ago
    This is what happens when someone copies and pastes their old comment, note the other tells.
    - brazukadev 11mo ago
      Nope, more like a LLM that doesn't know about GPT 5 and Gemini 3
deleted 11mo ago
[deleted]
jascha_eng 11mo ago
> reportedly in the low single-digit billions at best They are expected to hit 9 billion by end of year. Meaning the valuation multiple is only 30x. Which is still steep but at that growth rate not totally unreasonable. https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/04/anthropic-expects-b2b-demand-to-boost-revenue-to-70b-in-2028-report/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/04/anthropic-expects-b2b-dema...
- andrew_lettuce 11mo ago
  30 for a company that doesn't pay anything and may never pay off at all is crazy in my book, so as a best case scenario it's an obvious hard pass.
whp_wessel 11mo ago
is this comment created by AI? acc created in last 24 hours, lots of long ai-speak
nbardy 11mo ago
You haven’t actually looked at their fundamentals. They’re profitable serving current models including training costs and are only losing money on future RD training, but if you project future revenue growth on future generations of models you get a clear path to profitability. They charge higher costs than OpenAI and have faster growing API demand. They have great margins compared to the rest of the industry on inference. Sure the revenue growth could stop but it hasn’t and there is no reason to think it will.
- disgruntledphd2 11mo ago
  > They’re profitable serving current models including training costs I hear this a lot, do you have a good source (apart from their CEO saying it in an interview). I might have more faith in him but checks notes, it's late 2025 and AI is not writing all our code yet (amongst other mental things he's said).
  - JohnnyMarcone 11mo ago
    We will all have a great source if they IPO :)
  - TSiege 11mo ago
    The best I kind is this tech crunch article, which appears to be referencing an article from the information that is pay walled. > The Information reports that Anthropic expects to generate as much as $70 billion in revenue and $17 billion in cash flow in 2028. The growth projections are fueled by rapid adoption of Anthropic’s business products, a person with knowledge of the company’s financials said. > That said, the company expects its gross profit margin — which measures a company’s profitability after accounting for direct costs associated with producing goods and services — to reach 50% this year and 77% in 2028, up from negative 94% last year, per The Information. https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/04/anthropic-expects-b2b-demand-to-boost-revenue-to-70b-in-2028-report/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/04/anthropic-expects-b2b-dema...
    - disgruntledphd2 11mo ago
raldi 11mo ago
Offtopic, but how do you get the special X to show up when you type “50–100×”?
- variaga 11mo ago
  On my phone keyboard (android) "×" is a long-press on "w"

surgical_fire 11mo ago

Well, they have to. Every grift needs bagholders. If they get to be a memestock, they might even keep the grift going for a good while. See Tesla as a good example of this.