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Quote from the CEO of Anthropic in March 2025: "I think we'll be there in three to six months where AI is writing 90% of the code and then in 12 months we may
by mokarma 10mo ago
Quote from the CEO of Anthropic in March 2025:
"I think we'll be there in three to six months where AI is writing 90% of the code and then in 12 months we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code"
- WhyOhWhyQ 10mo agoI actually like claude code, but that was always a risky thing to say (actually I recall him saying their software is 90% AI produced) considering their cli tool is literally infested with bugs. (Or it least it was last time I used it heavily. Maybe they've improved it since.)
- johnfn 10mo agoAI writes about 90% of my code.
- smcleod 10mo agoProbably about 95% of mine now. Much better than I could for the most part.
- bopbopbop7 10mo agoWeird, AI writes terrible code for me that would never pass a code review. I guess people have different standards for good code.
- sinatra 10mo agoHah. It can’t be “I need to spend more time to figure out how to use these tools better.” It is always “I’m just smarter than other people and have a higher standard.”
- smcleod 10mo agoSpot on.
- wry_discontent 10mo agoThe tools produce mediocre, usually working in the most technical sense of the word, and most developers are pretty shit at writing code that doesn't suck (myself included). I think it's safe to say that people singularly focused on the business value of software are going to produce acceptable slop with AI.
- samdoesnothing 10mo agoShow us your repos.
- smcleod 10mo agohttps://github.com/sammcj/mcp-devtools https://github.com/sammcj/mcp-devtools
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- johnfn 10mo agoMy stack is React/Express/Drizzle/Postgres/Node/Tailwind. It's built on Hetzner/AWS, which I terraformed with AI. It's a private repo, and I won't make it open source just to prove it was written with AI, but I'd be happy to share the prompts. You can also visit the site, if you'd like: https://chipscompo.com/ https://chipscompo.com/
- smcleod 10mo agoI suspect you do not know how to use AI for writing code. No offence intended - it is a journey for everyone. You have to be setup with the right agentic coding tool, agent rules, agent tools (MCP servers), dynamic context acquisition and workflow (working with the agent operate from a plan rather than simple prompting and hoping for the best). But if you're lazy, don't put the effort in to understand what you're working with and how to approach it with an engineering mindset - you'll be be left on the outside complaining and telling people how it's all hype.
- brobdingnagians 10mo agoDo you know of any YouTube videos where you would say they do a very good job of showing off this style of coding?
- simonw 10mo agoI made this one recently: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qy4ci7AoF9Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qy4ci7AoF9Y - notes here: https://simonwillison.net/2025/Nov/6/upgrading-datasette-plugins/ https://simonwillison.net/2025/Nov/6/upgrading-datasette-plu... My best writing on this topic is still this though (which doesn't include a video): https://simonwillison.net/2025/Mar/11/using-llms-for-code/ https://simonwillison.net/2025/Mar/11/using-llms-for-code/
- smj-edison 10mo agoThanks for this! I've been looking for a good guide to an LLM based workflow, but the modern style of YouTube coding videos really grates on me. I think I might even like this :D
- smcleod 10mo agoAlways enjoy reading your blog Simon!
- brobdingnagians 10mo agoThank you
- sulam 10mo agoOr maybe he's working in a space that is less out of distribution than the work you're doing?
- bopbopbop7 10mo agoYou’re right, I’m not making a nextjs/shadcn/clerk/vercel ai wrapper startup.
- smcleod 10mo agoI don't remember saying I worked with nextjs, shadcn, clerk (I don't even know what that one is), vercel or even JS/TS so I'm not sure how you can be right but I should know better than to feed the trolls.
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- pjmlp 10mo agoOnly 10% to go for a full replacement.
- WesleyJohnson 10mo agoWhat languages and frameworks? What is the domain space you're operating in? I use Cursor to help with some tasks, but mainly only use the autocomplete. It's great; no complaints. I just don't ever see being able to turn over anywhere close to 90% with the stuff we work on.
- johnfn 10mo agoMy stack is React/Express/Drizzle/Postgres/Node/Tailwind. It's built on Hetzner/AWS, which I terraformed with AI. You can see my site here, if you'd like: https://chipscompo.com/ https://chipscompo.com/
- jsheard 10mo agoMaybe he was correct in the extremely literal sense of AI producing more new lines of code than humans, because AI is no doubt very good at producing huge volumes of Stuff very quickly, but how much of that Stuff actually justifies its existence is another question entirely.
- rsyring 10mo agoDo you have a source for the quote?
- rglover 10mo agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Shl1-ZJI6E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Shl1-ZJI6E
- jomohke 10mo agoIs this why everyone only seems to know the first half of Dario's quote? The guy in that video is commenting on a 40 second clip from twitter, not the original interview. I posted a link and transcription of the rest of his "three to six months" quote here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46126784 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46126784
- rsyring 10mo agoThank you.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- mjr00 10mo agoWhy didn't they just use AI to write their own Bun instead of wasting 8-9 figures on this company? Makes no sense.
- fredoliveira 10mo ago"Wasting" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. They're effectively bringing on a team that's been focused on building a runtime for years. The models they could throw at the problem can't be tapped on the shoulder, and there's no guarantee they'd do a better job at building something like Bun.
- ok_dad 10mo agoLet me refer you back to the GP, where the CEO of Anthropic says AI will be writing most code in 12 months. I think the parent comment you replied to was being somewhat facetious.
- furyofantares 10mo agoFrom the article, Claude Code is being used extensively to develop Bun already. > Over the last several months, the GitHub username with the most merged PRs in Bun's repo is now a Claude Code bot. We have it set up in our internal Discord and we mostly use it to help fix bugs. It opens PRs with tests that fail in the earlier system-installed version of Bun before the fix and pass in the fixed debug build of Bun. It responds to review comments. It does the whole thing. You do still need people to make all the decisions about how Bun is developed, and to use Claude Code.
- mjr00 10mo ago> You do still need people to make all the decisions about how Bun is developed, and to use Claude Code. Yeah but do you really need external hires to do that? Surely Anthropic has enough experienced JavaScript developers internally they could decide how their JS toolchain should work. Actually, this is thinking too small. There's no reason that each developer shouldn't be able to customize their own developer tools however they want. No need for any one individual to control this, just have devs use AI to spin up their own npm-compatible package management tooling locally. A good day one onboarding task!
- brobdingnagians 10mo agoI'm curious what people think of quotes like these. Obviously it makes an explicit, falsifiable prediction. That prediction is false. There are so many reasons why someone could predict that it would be false. Is it just optimistic marketing speech, or do they really believe it themselves?
- OkayPhysicist 10mo agoEverybody knows that marketing speech is optimistic. Which means if you give realistic estimates, then people are going to assume those are also optimistic.
- thesdev 10mo agoWhy didn't they have the AI write a JS runtime instead of this acquisition?
- delaminator 10mo agoThe big picture of “build a runtime” is an easier idea than “what would make this runtime better and how should the parts interact”.
- somebodythere 10mo agoI think this wound up being close enough to true, it's just that it actually says less than what people assumed at the time. It's basically the Jevons paradox for code. The price of lines of code (in human engineer-hours) has decreased a lot, so there is a bunch of code that is now economically justifiable which wouldn't have been written before. For example, I can prompt several ad-hoc benchmarking scripts in 1-2 minutes to troubleshoot an issue which might have taken 10-20 minutes each by myself, allowing me to investigate many performance angles. Not everything gets committed to source control. Put another way, at least in my workflow and at my workplace, the volume of code has increased, and most of that increase comes from new code that would not have been written if not for AI, and a smaller portion is code that I would have written before AI but now let the AI write so I can focus on harder tasks. Of course, it's uneven penetration, AI helps more with tasks that are well-described in the training set (webapps, data science, Linux admin...) compared to e.g. issues arising from quirky internal architecture, Rust, etc.
- howdyhowdy123 10mo agoThat's ridiculous. Not it isn't even close.
- goosejuice 10mo agoAt an individual level, I think it is for some people. Opus/Sonnet 4.5 can tackle pretty much any ticket I throw at it on a system I've worked on for nearly a decade. Struggles quite a bit with design, but I'm shit at that anyway. It's much faster for me to just start with an agent, and I often don't have to write a line of code. YMMV. Sonnet 3.7 wasn't quite at this level, but we are now. You still have to know what you're doing mind you and there's a lot of ceremony in tweaking workflows, much like it had been for editors. It's not much different than instructing juniors.
- rprend 10mo agoAccurate for me. Accurate for basically every startup from the past 12 months. Prob not for legacy codebases, though.
- jomohke 10mo agoWhy do people always stop this quote at the breath? The rest of it says that he still thinks they need tech employees. > .... and in 12 months, we might be in a world where the ai is writing essentially all of the code. But the programmer still needs to specify what are the conditions of what you're doing. What is the overall design decision. How we collaborate with other code that has been written. How do we have some common sense with whether this is a secure design or an insecure design. So as long as there are these small pieces that a programmer has to do, then I think human productivity will actually be enhanced (He then said it would continue improving, but this was not in the 12 month prediction.) Source interview: https://www.youtube.com/live/esCSpbDPJik?si=kYt9oSD5bZxNE-Mn https://www.youtube.com/live/esCSpbDPJik?si=kYt9oSD5bZxNE-Mn
- LauraMedia 10mo agoGiven the horrible stability of Windows this year, it seems like Microsoft went all in on that
- solumunus 10mo agoIt’s writing 90% of my code now but it’s 100% reliant on me to do that effectively.