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America is on a isolation downward spiral. Russia will conquer Ukraine, any other prediction at this point is absurd. See point one, America is alone now, it
by the_gipsy 11mo ago
America is on a isolation downward spiral.
Russia will conquer Ukraine, any other prediction at this point is absurd.
See point one, America is alone now, it will take decades to repair the damage.
- pfdietz 11mo agoSome would dispute the "downward" part there. Not trying to be the world's policeman would allow tremendous downsizing of the military and its associated expense. Decoupling and isolation is a very rational response if nuclear proliferation is going to accelerate, in order to avoid having entangling alliances pull the country into a nuclear equivalent of the first World War.
- the_gipsy 11mo ago"World's policeman", that's what you tell little kids America was doing. America didn't invade Iraq or Afghanistan for world peace. There were strong economic and strategic motives behind those invasions. At the same time, soft power is also vanishing.
- pfdietz 11mo agoStrategic motivation? If one assumes the US is going to be globally involved, yes, but that's begging the question. Economic motivation? Not so much now, with the US being a dominant oil producer, and with petroleum itself losing importance. Even then, it's questionable if this could justify the full cost of the US military. I think the original motivation was two fold: it was a combination of some sort of moral obligation to defend the "free world" from authoritarians, and (after WW2) a desire to keep small countries (and recent WW2 enemies) from deciding their only option for defense was their own nuclear deterrent.
- amanaplanacanal 11mo agoI don't see much evidence that's the US wants to defend the world from authoritarians. Some of their closest allies are authoritarian countries.
- pfdietz 11mo agoExpansionist authoritarians, which in the post war world was communists. Why would the world need defending from non-expansionist authoritarians?
- amanaplanacanal 11mo agoMaybe. They seem to actually like expansionist authoritarians now. Evidence being the Russia Ukraine peace effort.
- pfdietz 11mo agoAnother thing the US did in the post-war world was apply economic leverage to dismantle European empires. This can also be viewed as defending nations against external coercion.
- tim333 11mo ago"strong economic and strategic motive" behind Afghanistan? They did it to get Bin Laden basically. America are like a slightly corrupt and violent world police.
- torginus 11mo agoSo they invaded Afghanistan to grab a Saudi national hanging out in Pakistan?
- tim333 11mo agoMostly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan#US_invasion_and_Islamic_Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan#US_invasion_and_Is... Apparently the invasion was Oct 2001 and Bin Laden hiked over into Pakistan in Dec 2001
- pfdietz 11mo agoI think it had something to do with 9/11 being an act of war from Afghanistan against the US. Nations are responsible for the actions of groups inside their borders against other nations.
- torginus 11mo agoIt was not an act of war since Afghanistan didn't have an official government - in practice the Taliban ran things - but the attacks were carried out by the Al Qaeda which was spread over the Middle East. The Taliban might have been sympathetic to it but they were not actively supporting them or had any official collaboration with them.
- tonyedgecombe 11mo ago>Russia will conquer Ukraine, any other prediction at this point is absurd. They have been moving across Ukraine at a literal snails pace.
- dmpk2k 11mo agoThat is how attrition war works. Until it doesn’t.
- _heimdall 11mo agoAre you expecting Ukraine to ultimately buckle and collapse if the war of logistics continues for long enough? It doesn't seem like Russia has the will, or potentially the capability, to actually conquer Ukraine rather than squat on some of their land and hope to move their border.
- bildung 11mo ago> Russia will conquer Ukraine, any other prediction at this point is absurd. Are you sure? They are advancing, sure, put look what they paid for to achieve this: 300k dead, 700k wounded, depletion of their souvereign wealth fund, 20%+ inflation, lower oil production and so on.
- watwut 11mo agoUnfortunately, yes. USA is doing everything but openly support Russia at this point too. It could have been different if Ukraine got proper support, but instead it is being undermined. Europe could do more, but at least most states dont play for Russia (Hungary and Slovakia excepted).
- somenameforme 11mo agoI think literally nobody knows the price either side is paying right now. And I do mean literally, including Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The fog of war applies to participants, let alone outsiders who are basing our views on figures and claims that obviously going to be driven heavily by propaganda. But beyond this, I don't think this war is about Ukraine anymore than a war in Taiwan will be about Taiwan. It's little more than a proxy for hegemony in both cases. Russia did not want NATO parked in their Achille's heel of the Ukrainian flatlands. NATO did, and we pushed forward against endless threats of it being a redline, essentially as a means of indirectly imposing our will on Russia and establishing a hierarchy of dominance. And similarly, for those that don't the Taiwan-China history - the Mao led Chinese revolution was a success. The existing government of mainland China fled to Taiwan where they brutally oppressed the locals, in an era known as the 'white terror' [1], and established power through 40 years of martial law. And of course we backed them, solely to use them as a weapon against China, because geopolitics. This is why these wars are so important for the participants. The US couldn't care less about Ukraine, but withdrawing without ruining our ability to militarily threaten other peer or near peer countries is difficult. And similarly the last thing Russia needs is more land, but if they never act on claims of red lines, then they can never expect their interests to be considered in the case of a conflict in interests between them and the West. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan)
- TheOtherHobbes 11mo agoRussia is on the same spiral, but further ahead. They're going down together. The US has some chance of pulling out of the nose dive, but it's slim. They may or may not take Europe and Ukraine with them. China is better placed to survive, but has its own structural issues.
- MonkeyClub 11mo ago> Russia will conquer Ukraine Perhaps the objective isn't to conquer the whole of the Ukraine, but only most of it, leaving the western parts independent. This seems to be pushed as the right approach wrt the Ukraine in Alexander Dugin's Foundations of Geopolitics, which apparently is used as the source for Russia's current "Eurasianist" geopolitical doctrine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
- tim333 11mo agoIn March 2022 Russia occupied 27% of Ukraine. They have now lost much of their artillery tanks and then army and now control 19% of Ukraine while their oil refineries blow up, and recently tankers. I'm not sure the conquest is going quite to plan.