4 ms·

The small part in me understands that, they are banking on three things 1) oil will be cheap because of EV boom and hence EV dominance will be slow and could ta

by iamgopal 10mo ago

The small part in me understands that, they are banking on three things 1) oil will be cheap because of EV boom and hence EV dominance will be slow and could take couple of decades 2) electric Energy cost will rise significantly because so much charging and energy infrastructure required. 3) Battery will reach at par with gasoline and matured standardised comodity, that will be the perfect time to enter.

rootusrootus 10mo ago
I think #1 will probably play out to a certain extent. Perhaps as an oscillation between low and high as each wave knocks more gas stations out of business and refinery capacity offline. But I have to say, even low prices on gas won't make me go back -- I prefer my EVs in all regards to the ICE equivalents, with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips, which is not my use case. I hope #2 won't be the future. It's not as easy to just jack up electric prices because EVs are charging, because they are regulated, and electricity is used for way more than cars (if my napkin math is right, on average people will use around 30% more electricity if they go full electric). I expect that as a practical matter #3 is here now, it just hasn't filtered down to retail car sales in the US yet.
- bryanlarsen 10mo ago
  > with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips I've done 4 3000km road trips and intentionally took the EV leaving the ICE vehicle at home. It's a better car, and we need to stop to bathroom anyways, so charging isn't inconvenient. Saving a few hundred dollars in fuel is nice, too.
  - gmueckl 10mo ago
    Long EV trips are possible amd convenient if there are enough chargers along the route. Sadly, this isn't the case on many routes in the US, at least. Europe is doing much better. I have no experience in other places.
    - GiorgioG 10mo ago
      Different people optimize for different things. I have a 450 mile trip (each way) next weekend. I can do it in 1 full tank of gas, but realistically I’ll stop once to fill up halfway. I don’t plan any other stops. If I had an EV, I’d probably have to stop twice, for 30+ minutes each, extending my already long trip by an hour each way.
      - bryanlarsen 10mo ago
        Why would you do that when you can easily make that trip in a typical 320 mile range EV with a single 20 minute charge?
      - vel0city 10mo ago
        > If I had an EV, I’d probably have to stop twice, for 30+ minutes each You probably wouldn't for a 450mi trip, so long as you're driving an EV that's even halfway decent for road trips.
      - bdangubic 10mo ago
        1. if you are driving 450 miles you should stop at least twice 2. unless you have an old or low mileage battery you won’t have to stop more than once 3. if you do stop twice (which you should) you should not need more than 15-20 minute stop
      - rootusrootus 10mo ago
        Honestly, even my Lightning could do 450 with one stop, and it’s not the poster child for high range. My model 3 would do that no problem and the stop would be half as long. My back and butt beg me to stop every couple hundred miles anyway, so on a long road trip I plan for a lunch stop. Longer than 450 and I stop for the night or fly. But I don’t love road tripping no matter how big the has tank.
    - bryanlarsen 10mo ago
      Like what route? Everytime I've talked to someone who claimed they couldn't buy an EV because of a certain route, abetterrouteplanner.com showed it was covered.
impossiblefork 10mo ago
For a while maybe, but cheap EVs are being manufactured in Europe as well, and while this could reduce petrol prices, it's also going to reduce the need for petrol stations, and I think makes petrol basically dead even in a cheap-petrol scenario. A Renault Twingo is going to cost something like 20,000 euros. That's twice the price of a Dacia Sandero, but a Dacia Spring is 16,900. The difference is only 4000, which could easily be a year's petrol.
- fpoling 10mo ago
  A modern small and medium-sized car in Europe consumes like 4-6 liters/100 km. Even if one drives 15 thousands km/year (way above average) that gives like 900 liters of gasoline per year or like 1500-1700 euros with typical European prices. And electricity is not free especially when using fast chargers. So at the end the savings is about 500-1000 euros per year. Which still is a good deal, but explains why people prefer to buy small gasoline cars. I think electric car premium must be below 2 thousand euros plus infrastructure must improve before gasoline car sales in Europe start to collapse.
  - impossiblefork 10mo ago
    Ah. I hadn't realised that modern petrol cars had gotten that efficient. When I had a petrol car it was like at least 12 L/100 km, probably more. I remember 100 km drives (Stockholm-Uppsala and back) costing hundreds of Swedish crowns in petrol.
    - ErroneousBosh 10mo ago
      > When I had a petrol car it was like at least 12 L/100 km, probably more What was it? That's approximately what my late-90s Range Rover does, although it's converted to run on LPG which is much cheaper and much much much cleaner.

rootusrootus 10mo ago

I think #1 will probably play out to a certain extent. Perhaps as an oscillation between low and high as each wave knocks more gas stations out of business and refinery capacity offline. But I have to say, even low prices on gas won't make me go back -- I prefer my EVs in all regards to the ICE equivalents, with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips, which is not my use case. I hope #2 won't be the future. It's not as easy to just jack up electric prices because EVs are charging, because they are regulated, and electricity is used for way more than cars (if my napkin math is right, on average people will use around 30% more electricity if they go full electric). I expect that as a practical matter #3 is here now, it just hasn't filtered down to retail car sales in the US yet.

bryanlarsen 10mo ago
> with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips I've done 4 3000km road trips and intentionally took the EV leaving the ICE vehicle at home. It's a better car, and we need to stop to bathroom anyways, so charging isn't inconvenient. Saving a few hundred dollars in fuel is nice, too.
- gmueckl 10mo ago
  Long EV trips are possible amd convenient if there are enough chargers along the route. Sadly, this isn't the case on many routes in the US, at least. Europe is doing much better. I have no experience in other places.
  - GiorgioG 10mo ago
    Different people optimize for different things. I have a 450 mile trip (each way) next weekend. I can do it in 1 full tank of gas, but realistically I’ll stop once to fill up halfway. I don’t plan any other stops. If I had an EV, I’d probably have to stop twice, for 30+ minutes each, extending my already long trip by an hour each way.
    - bryanlarsen 10mo ago
      Why would you do that when you can easily make that trip in a typical 320 mile range EV with a single 20 minute charge?
    - vel0city 10mo ago
      > If I had an EV, I’d probably have to stop twice, for 30+ minutes each You probably wouldn't for a 450mi trip, so long as you're driving an EV that's even halfway decent for road trips.
    - bdangubic 10mo ago
      1. if you are driving 450 miles you should stop at least twice 2. unless you have an old or low mileage battery you won’t have to stop more than once 3. if you do stop twice (which you should) you should not need more than 15-20 minute stop
    - rootusrootus 10mo ago
      Honestly, even my Lightning could do 450 with one stop, and it’s not the poster child for high range. My model 3 would do that no problem and the stop would be half as long. My back and butt beg me to stop every couple hundred miles anyway, so on a long road trip I plan for a lunch stop. Longer than 450 and I stop for the night or fly. But I don’t love road tripping no matter how big the has tank.
  - bryanlarsen 10mo ago
    Like what route? Everytime I've talked to someone who claimed they couldn't buy an EV because of a certain route, abetterrouteplanner.com showed it was covered.

impossiblefork 10mo ago

For a while maybe, but cheap EVs are being manufactured in Europe as well, and while this could reduce petrol prices, it's also going to reduce the need for petrol stations, and I think makes petrol basically dead even in a cheap-petrol scenario. A Renault Twingo is going to cost something like 20,000 euros. That's twice the price of a Dacia Sandero, but a Dacia Spring is 16,900. The difference is only 4000, which could easily be a year's petrol.

fpoling 10mo ago
A modern small and medium-sized car in Europe consumes like 4-6 liters/100 km. Even if one drives 15 thousands km/year (way above average) that gives like 900 liters of gasoline per year or like 1500-1700 euros with typical European prices. And electricity is not free especially when using fast chargers. So at the end the savings is about 500-1000 euros per year. Which still is a good deal, but explains why people prefer to buy small gasoline cars. I think electric car premium must be below 2 thousand euros plus infrastructure must improve before gasoline car sales in Europe start to collapse.
- impossiblefork 10mo ago
  Ah. I hadn't realised that modern petrol cars had gotten that efficient. When I had a petrol car it was like at least 12 L/100 km, probably more. I remember 100 km drives (Stockholm-Uppsala and back) costing hundreds of Swedish crowns in petrol.
  - ErroneousBosh 10mo ago
    > When I had a petrol car it was like at least 12 L/100 km, probably more What was it? That's approximately what my late-90s Range Rover does, although it's converted to run on LPG which is much cheaper and much much much cleaner.