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So basically they are admitting that not enough people will pay for it to be a profitable business. Also that they don’t have any significant improvements to th

by pier25 11mo ago

So basically they are admitting that not enough people will pay for it to be a profitable business. Also that they don’t have any significant improvements to the tech coming up.

aurareturn 11mo ago
Would you say that Google admitted that not enough people will pay for Youtube premium to be a profitable business so they had to get into ads?
- landedgentry 11mo ago
  Youtube premium is not claiming AGI to justify a certain valuation.
  - aurareturn 11mo ago
    I don’t think OpenAI has claimed they have AGI?
    - kgwgk 11mo ago
      Maybe not having it but being really close to that and knowing how to build it. "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies."
      - aurareturn 11mo ago
        Hasn't the happened? Plenty of companies are working and experimenting with agents.
        johnnyanmac 11mo ago
        I'm still waiting for the "materially change the output of companies" part.
    - pier25 11mo ago
      Sam Altman said in 2024 that AGI could happen as soon as 2025. https://dianawolftorres.substack.com/p/is-agi-just-around-the-corner-sam https://dianawolftorres.substack.com/p/is-agi-just-around-th... And that's not his only bold claim about AGI.
- kgwgk 11mo ago
  I doubt anyone would say that given that they got into ads years before giving people the option to pay.
  - aurareturn 11mo ago
    But the same logic applies. Youtube is not profitable without ads and would shut down.
    - array_key_first 11mo ago
      Yeah, probably, but then again YouTube is entertainment and Google never claimed to be fixing the world and whatever. Also they're not sucking up hundreds of billions of dollars.
    - manojlds 11mo ago
      If ChatGPT and AI is "just" supposed to be Youtube, sure. ChatGPT wasn't supposed to be just YouTube.
- varenc 11mo ago
  My personal theory: Youtube ads exist as just a punishment to beat you into paying for premium. As in, while the ads make some money, their primary purpose is to motivate you to pay. And that a subscriber generates meaningful more revenue than the ads sales of a non-subscriber. It seems plausible to me, since I get so many low quality poorly targeted ads on repeat. I can't imagine those ads are generating much revenue, but it makes sense if their primary purpose is just to beat me into paying for a subscription.
- pier25 11mo ago
  IIRC ads predate Youtube premium by years. But why compare these two businesses? They are completely different. From the estimates I've seen, Youtube operating costs are a fraction of what OpenAI is burning yearly.
sailingparrot 11mo ago
> So basically they are admitting that not enough people will pay for it to be a profitable business Since when capitalism is about stopping trying to make more money right when you become profitable? If they can find a way to make 10x the revenue needed to be profitable, they will.
Lockranor 11mo ago
That assumes that the move is a necessity. It doesn't have to be; pure profit motive is enough to introduce the concept preemptively.
- pembrook 11mo ago
  I prefer the profit motive over the authoritarian "altruist" motive. Pessimists before ads: OpenAI is a bubble fueled by dumb money waiting to pop, they'll never be profitable! Pessimists after ads: Ok it's not a bubble but advertising is evil! Pessimists after hearing paid subscribers won't get ads: Pffftttt $20 per month??? Profit is evil!! I can spin up a local LLM on my Linux machine for free! Pessimists after admitting you can just choose not to use ChatGPT, a result of the free market: But I don't like that OTHER people are using ChatGPT because they're obviously dumb if they don't agree with me!

by pier25 11mo ago

So basically they are admitting that not enough people will pay for it to be a profitable business. Also that they don’t have any significant improvements to the tech coming up.

aurareturn 11mo ago

Would you say that Google admitted that not enough people will pay for Youtube premium to be a profitable business so they had to get into ads?

landedgentry 11mo ago
Youtube premium is not claiming AGI to justify a certain valuation.
- aurareturn 11mo ago
  I don’t think OpenAI has claimed they have AGI?
  - kgwgk 11mo ago
    Maybe not having it but being really close to that and knowing how to build it. "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies."
    - aurareturn 11mo ago
      Hasn't the happened? Plenty of companies are working and experimenting with agents.
      - johnnyanmac 11mo ago
        I'm still waiting for the "materially change the output of companies" part.
  - pier25 11mo ago
    Sam Altman said in 2024 that AGI could happen as soon as 2025. https://dianawolftorres.substack.com/p/is-agi-just-around-the-corner-sam https://dianawolftorres.substack.com/p/is-agi-just-around-th... And that's not his only bold claim about AGI.
kgwgk 11mo ago
I doubt anyone would say that given that they got into ads years before giving people the option to pay.
- aurareturn 11mo ago
  But the same logic applies. Youtube is not profitable without ads and would shut down.
  - array_key_first 11mo ago
    Yeah, probably, but then again YouTube is entertainment and Google never claimed to be fixing the world and whatever. Also they're not sucking up hundreds of billions of dollars.
  - manojlds 11mo ago
    If ChatGPT and AI is "just" supposed to be Youtube, sure. ChatGPT wasn't supposed to be just YouTube.
varenc 11mo ago
My personal theory: Youtube ads exist as just a punishment to beat you into paying for premium. As in, while the ads make some money, their primary purpose is to motivate you to pay. And that a subscriber generates meaningful more revenue than the ads sales of a non-subscriber. It seems plausible to me, since I get so many low quality poorly targeted ads on repeat. I can't imagine those ads are generating much revenue, but it makes sense if their primary purpose is just to beat me into paying for a subscription.
pier25 11mo ago
IIRC ads predate Youtube premium by years. But why compare these two businesses? They are completely different. From the estimates I've seen, Youtube operating costs are a fraction of what OpenAI is burning yearly.

sailingparrot 11mo ago

> So basically they are admitting that not enough people will pay for it to be a profitable business Since when capitalism is about stopping trying to make more money right when you become profitable? If they can find a way to make 10x the revenue needed to be profitable, they will.

Lockranor 11mo ago

That assumes that the move is a necessity. It doesn't have to be; pure profit motive is enough to introduce the concept preemptively.

pembrook 11mo ago
I prefer the profit motive over the authoritarian "altruist" motive. Pessimists before ads: OpenAI is a bubble fueled by dumb money waiting to pop, they'll never be profitable! Pessimists after ads: Ok it's not a bubble but advertising is evil! Pessimists after hearing paid subscribers won't get ads: Pffftttt $20 per month??? Profit is evil!! I can spin up a local LLM on my Linux machine for free! Pessimists after admitting you can just choose not to use ChatGPT, a result of the free market: But I don't like that OTHER people are using ChatGPT because they're obviously dumb if they don't agree with me!