3 ms·

I remember reading this headline and then going and looking at the XMAG index[0]. YTD: +15.5% 1 year: +9% Since inception (Oct 2024): +14% Comparing that wi

by arjie 11mo ago

I remember reading this headline and then going and looking at the XMAG index[0]. YTD: +15.5% 1 year: +9% Since inception (Oct 2024): +14% Comparing that with S&P500 YTD: +16.7% 1 year: +13% Since XMAG inception: +18% The article should start with such a comparison but it just seems like a lot of text with very little numerical comparison, which makes it not very useful to conclude what the case is. 0: https://www.defianceetfs.com/xmag/ https://www.defianceetfs.com/xmag/

edoceo 11mo ago
Correct! Backtest and compare ratios to common indexes!
omnicognate 11mo ago
The MSN link on the post doesn't have the charts the original WaPo article [0] contains, which provide just such a comparison, though over a longer period (from 2019), showing 132% vs 1057%. (No idea if that is right or more/less meaningful, just pointing out it's missed off this link.) [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/24/sp500-stock-market-tech-nvidia/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/24/sp500-sto...
- rsanek 11mo ago
  https://archive.is/qOjdE https://archive.is/qOjdE
- itsdrewmiller 11mo ago
  Neither Nvidia nor Tesla were top 7 by valuation in 2019 though - this seems like it heavily relies on cherry picking the most successful stocks over the past 6 years and comparing them against everything else.
  - estimator7292 11mo ago
    Isn't that the entire point? To see what the economy is doing outside of the current bubble?
anovikov 11mo ago
If we made a similar comparison to the SP500 index since its inception in 1926, and made a chart of total returns difference over 1 year sliding window, between index and index minus it's top 7 performing stocks, i bet we will see this recent period isn't at all exceptional. Every economic boom is propelled by one or two sectors that have a limited number of players.
torginus 11mo ago
Good point, but you also need to correct for inflation - which was about 9.5% if I'm looking it up correctly. Adding a 2% yearly EUR inflation, that eats up 11.5% of the value. This gives 4% real value growthy for XMAG - and 5.2% for MAG7. It also needs to account that Trump's election and the tariff craziness was almost exactly a year ago, so the numbers might be a bit unreliable. This raises interesting questions about the profitability of AI - if AI was economically valuable, we'd see network effects on companies that produce AI inputs - power, datacenter, servers etc. or other companies becoming more valuable as a result which doesn't seem to be tha case.

by arjie 11mo ago

edoceo 11mo ago

Correct! Backtest and compare ratios to common indexes!

omnicognate 11mo ago

The MSN link on the post doesn't have the charts the original WaPo article [0] contains, which provide just such a comparison, though over a longer period (from 2019), showing 132% vs 1057%. (No idea if that is right or more/less meaningful, just pointing out it's missed off this link.) [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/24/sp500-stock-market-tech-nvidia/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/24/sp500-sto...

rsanek 11mo ago
https://archive.is/qOjdE https://archive.is/qOjdE
itsdrewmiller 11mo ago
Neither Nvidia nor Tesla were top 7 by valuation in 2019 though - this seems like it heavily relies on cherry picking the most successful stocks over the past 6 years and comparing them against everything else.
- estimator7292 11mo ago
  Isn't that the entire point? To see what the economy is doing outside of the current bubble?

anovikov 11mo ago

If we made a similar comparison to the SP500 index since its inception in 1926, and made a chart of total returns difference over 1 year sliding window, between index and index minus it's top 7 performing stocks, i bet we will see this recent period isn't at all exceptional. Every economic boom is propelled by one or two sectors that have a limited number of players.

torginus 11mo ago

Good point, but you also need to correct for inflation - which was about 9.5% if I'm looking it up correctly. Adding a 2% yearly EUR inflation, that eats up 11.5% of the value. This gives 4% real value growthy for XMAG - and 5.2% for MAG7. It also needs to account that Trump's election and the tariff craziness was almost exactly a year ago, so the numbers might be a bit unreliable. This raises interesting questions about the profitability of AI - if AI was economically valuable, we'd see network effects on companies that produce AI inputs - power, datacenter, servers etc. or other companies becoming more valuable as a result which doesn't seem to be tha case.