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> Meta has 3.5 billion users and projected ~$200b revenue in 2025. Meta has WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook to account for that. OpenAI has ChatGPT (not a s

by gtirloni 11mo ago

> Meta has 3.5 billion users and projected ~$200b revenue in 2025. Meta has WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook to account for that. OpenAI has ChatGPT (not a social platform). It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here.

k_kelly 11mo ago
Google makes over a billion of its ad Revenue from search. Intent works. But I think Open AI is not a slam dunk for Ads. Gemini and AI mode will compete for the same budget, and Google's Ad machine is polished. I think eventually you will buy Ads for Open AI in Google's marketing platforms, just like most people buy bing ads in Google.
- aurareturn 11mo ago
  OpenAI knows my intent better than Google. I'm telling it nearly everything from my work problems to health problems to love life problems to product research, traveling plans, etc.
  - jayd16 11mo ago
    Google and Meta know your intent without you even telling them...
  - tantalor 11mo ago
    That's different than intent. Your intent is the immediate need: how do I fix this leaky faucet? Your user profile (love life problems) is generally not useful there.
    - aurareturn 11mo ago
      There are plenty of things I say to ChatGPT that are not immediate need. ChatGPT can easily build a very accurate profile of me as a person and what my past, present and future needs are.
  - phatfish 11mo ago
    Maybe, but OpenAI only get the data you decide to type into ChatGPT in a vibe therapy session or whatever, and they have to burn a load of GPU time to keep you feeding it more slop. Google just passively collects email and browsing history, much better data for targeting ads and way less cost to run.
  - tarsinge 11mo ago
    Problem is the day Google puts a similarly priced and more powerful chatbot similar to ChatGPT and powered by Gemini most users will switch without a second thought, and Google will get all that data about their personal life too. OpenAI having a free tier with powerful models is unsustainable, brand loyalty is a joke at this stage, people will not bother going to ChatGPT if the search bar in their browser starts a discussion with Google. I’m sure big players like Google know OpenAI is a temporary scheme to get free money, they are surfing along now but they are playing the long game.
  - ml-anon 11mo ago
    You do not understand how online ads work. Please just stop.
    - aurareturn 11mo ago
      No you don't know how online ads work. You stop.
  - freejazz 11mo ago
    Yeesh
  - FrancisMoodie 11mo ago
    I wanna push back on this a little, sure, openAI has a certain level of detail in it's dataset because of the fact that you actually have conversations with it in order to use their product, but we're talking about a short window of time since the inception of ChatGPT. Google has all your searches (if you use google.com) and all of your browsing history (if you use a chromium based browser) and all of your emails (if you use gmail.com) and they have been adding to this dataset for a lot longer. Personally I stopped using google.com and I have tried my hardest to avoid Chromium-based web-browsers in the last 5-10 years but they still have a hefty dataset of all of my actions before that or when I'm on a (work) computer that forces me to use their systems. Because of this I'm not entirely sure OpenAI knows my intent better than Google, purely based on amount of data processed.
aurareturn 11mo ago
OpenAI has ChatGPT (not a social platform). You didn't state reasons why not being a social platform matters here. Anyways, check this out: https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here. I don't think so. 1 billion users and a clear intention to deliver ads with an immense amount of data on users. That's a clear threat to both Meta and Google. PS. That's why Meta and Google are all in on AI. OpenAI is an existential threat to both in my humble opinion.
- ncallaway 11mo ago
  > You didn't state reasons why not being a social platform matters here. The network effects matter so much more for a social platform than a chat bot. The switching costs for a user are much lower, so users can move to a different one much easier. How sticky will chat bots prove to be in the long term? Will OpenAI be able to maintain a lead in the space in the long term, the way Google was over Bing? It's possible, but it's also pretty easy to imagine other providers being competitive and a landscape where users move between different LLMs more fluidly
  - matusp 11mo ago
    Another reason why social media matters is that people actually spend their free time in all those feeds. On the other hand, using LLMs is much more oriented towards specific utilities. Having 1B users who visit you once a day to ask for an email proofread will not make you profitable.
    - justincormack 11mo ago
      But, like search, it captures intent to buy much better, while looking at feeds for internatinment does not. Adwords worked because of that, they could capture ad revenue on queries that lead to sales. The amount of extra context in AI chat is even better, as is the ability to steer the conversation to different options.
    - aurareturn 11mo ago
KaiserPro 11mo ago
> It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here. apart from those oranges have ~100bn a year to spend on rnd and still make a profit, where as openai doesn't So yes, it is apples to oranges. but its reality.
edm0nd 11mo ago
I think the play here for OpenAI is they will eventually acquire reddit and that will be their first intro into a social platform. Then they will have a social platform that they will continue to use to mine AI training data from + a source of ad revenue.

k_kelly 11mo ago

Google makes over a billion of its ad Revenue from search. Intent works. But I think Open AI is not a slam dunk for Ads. Gemini and AI mode will compete for the same budget, and Google's Ad machine is polished. I think eventually you will buy Ads for Open AI in Google's marketing platforms, just like most people buy bing ads in Google.

aurareturn 11mo ago
OpenAI knows my intent better than Google. I'm telling it nearly everything from my work problems to health problems to love life problems to product research, traveling plans, etc.
- jayd16 11mo ago
  Google and Meta know your intent without you even telling them...
- tantalor 11mo ago
  That's different than intent. Your intent is the immediate need: how do I fix this leaky faucet? Your user profile (love life problems) is generally not useful there.
  - aurareturn 11mo ago
    There are plenty of things I say to ChatGPT that are not immediate need. ChatGPT can easily build a very accurate profile of me as a person and what my past, present and future needs are.
- phatfish 11mo ago
  Maybe, but OpenAI only get the data you decide to type into ChatGPT in a vibe therapy session or whatever, and they have to burn a load of GPU time to keep you feeding it more slop. Google just passively collects email and browsing history, much better data for targeting ads and way less cost to run.
- tarsinge 11mo ago
  Problem is the day Google puts a similarly priced and more powerful chatbot similar to ChatGPT and powered by Gemini most users will switch without a second thought, and Google will get all that data about their personal life too. OpenAI having a free tier with powerful models is unsustainable, brand loyalty is a joke at this stage, people will not bother going to ChatGPT if the search bar in their browser starts a discussion with Google. I’m sure big players like Google know OpenAI is a temporary scheme to get free money, they are surfing along now but they are playing the long game.
- ml-anon 11mo ago
  You do not understand how online ads work. Please just stop.
  - aurareturn 11mo ago
    No you don't know how online ads work. You stop.
- freejazz 11mo ago
  Yeesh
- FrancisMoodie 11mo ago
  I wanna push back on this a little, sure, openAI has a certain level of detail in it's dataset because of the fact that you actually have conversations with it in order to use their product, but we're talking about a short window of time since the inception of ChatGPT. Google has all your searches (if you use google.com) and all of your browsing history (if you use a chromium based browser) and all of your emails (if you use gmail.com) and they have been adding to this dataset for a lot longer. Personally I stopped using google.com and I have tried my hardest to avoid Chromium-based web-browsers in the last 5-10 years but they still have a hefty dataset of all of my actions before that or when I'm on a (work) computer that forces me to use their systems. Because of this I'm not entirely sure OpenAI knows my intent better than Google, purely based on amount of data processed.

aurareturn 11mo ago

OpenAI has ChatGPT (not a social platform). You didn't state reasons why not being a social platform matters here. Anyways, check this out: https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here. I don't think so. 1 billion users and a clear intention to deliver ads with an immense amount of data on users. That's a clear threat to both Meta and Google. PS. That's why Meta and Google are all in on AI. OpenAI is an existential threat to both in my humble opinion.

ncallaway 11mo ago
> You didn't state reasons why not being a social platform matters here. The network effects matter so much more for a social platform than a chat bot. The switching costs for a user are much lower, so users can move to a different one much easier. How sticky will chat bots prove to be in the long term? Will OpenAI be able to maintain a lead in the space in the long term, the way Google was over Bing? It's possible, but it's also pretty easy to imagine other providers being competitive and a landscape where users move between different LLMs more fluidly
- matusp 11mo ago
  Another reason why social media matters is that people actually spend their free time in all those feeds. On the other hand, using LLMs is much more oriented towards specific utilities. Having 1B users who visit you once a day to ask for an email proofread will not make you profitable.
  - justincormack 11mo ago
    But, like search, it captures intent to buy much better, while looking at feeds for internatinment does not. Adwords worked because of that, they could capture ad revenue on queries that lead to sales. The amount of extra context in AI chat is even better, as is the ability to steer the conversation to different options.
  - aurareturn 11mo ago

KaiserPro 11mo ago

> It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here. apart from those oranges have ~100bn a year to spend on rnd and still make a profit, where as openai doesn't So yes, it is apples to oranges. but its reality.

edm0nd 11mo ago

I think the play here for OpenAI is they will eventually acquire reddit and that will be their first intro into a social platform. Then they will have a social platform that they will continue to use to mine AI training data from + a source of ad revenue.