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The team also assumes LLM companies will capture 2 per cent of the digital advertising market in revenue, from slightly more than zero currently. This seems qu

The team also assumes LLM companies will capture 2 per cent of the digital advertising market in revenue, from slightly more than zero currently. This seems quite low. Meta has 3.5 billion users and projected ~$200b revenue in 2025. ChatGPT is at ~1 billion so far. By 2030, let's just stay ChatGPT reaches 2 billion years or 57% of Meta's current users. I'd like to think that OpenAI's digital ad revenue should reach 10% by 2030 an then accelerate from there. In my opinion, the data that ChatGPT has on a user is better than the inferred user data from Instagram/FB usage. I think ChatGPT can build a better advertisement profile of each user than Meta can which can lead to better ad targeting. Further more, I think ChatGPT can really create a novel advertisement platform such as learning about sponsored products directly via chat. I'm already asking ChatGPT about potential products and services everyday like medicine, travel, gadgets, etc. I think people are severely underestimating ChatGPT as a way to make money other than subscriptions. I also think people are underestimating the branding power ChatGPT has already. All my friends have ChatGPT on their phone. None of them except me has Gemini or Claude app. This doesn't account for OpenAI's other ambitions such as Sora app. Hey Sam Altman or OpenAI employee, if you are reading this, I think you should buy the North American version of TikTok if the opportunity presents itself. The future of short videos will be heavily AI generated/assisted. Combine Tiktok's audience with your Sora tools and ChatGPT data and you got yourself a true Instagram competitor immediately. If the $14b sales price of US Tiktok is real, that's an absolute bargain in the grand scheme of things.

gtirloni 1y ago
> Meta has 3.5 billion users and projected ~$200b revenue in 2025. Meta has WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook to account for that. OpenAI has ChatGPT (not a social platform). It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here.
- k_kelly 1y ago
  Google makes over a billion of its ad Revenue from search. Intent works. But I think Open AI is not a slam dunk for Ads. Gemini and AI mode will compete for the same budget, and Google's Ad machine is polished. I think eventually you will buy Ads for Open AI in Google's marketing platforms, just like most people buy bing ads in Google.
  - aurareturn 1y ago
    OpenAI knows my intent better than Google. I'm telling it nearly everything from my work problems to health problems to love life problems to product research, traveling plans, etc.
    - jayd16 1y ago
      Google and Meta know your intent without you even telling them...
    - tantalor 1y ago
      That's different than intent. Your intent is the immediate need: how do I fix this leaky faucet? Your user profile (love life problems) is generally not useful there.
      - aurareturn 11mo ago
        There are plenty of things I say to ChatGPT that are not immediate need. ChatGPT can easily build a very accurate profile of me as a person and what my past, present and future needs are.
    - phatfish 1y ago
      Maybe, but OpenAI only get the data you decide to type into ChatGPT in a vibe therapy session or whatever, and they have to burn a load of GPU time to keep you feeding it more slop. Google just passively collects email and browsing history, much better data for targeting ads and way less cost to run.
    - tarsinge 1y ago
      Problem is the day Google puts a similarly priced and more powerful chatbot similar to ChatGPT and powered by Gemini most users will switch without a second thought, and Google will get all that data about their personal life too. OpenAI having a free tier with powerful models is unsustainable, brand loyalty is a joke at this stage, people will not bother going to ChatGPT if the search bar in their browser starts a discussion with Google. I’m sure big players like Google know OpenAI is a temporary scheme to get free money, they are surfing along now but they are playing the long game.
- aurareturn 1y ago
  OpenAI has ChatGPT (not a social platform). You didn't state reasons why not being a social platform matters here. Anyways, check this out: https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here. I don't think so. 1 billion users and a clear intention to deliver ads with an immense amount of data on users. That's a clear threat to both Meta and Google. PS. That's why Meta and Google are all in on AI. OpenAI is an existential threat to both in my humble opinion.
  - ncallaway 1y ago
    > You didn't state reasons why not being a social platform matters here. The network effects matter so much more for a social platform than a chat bot. The switching costs for a user are much lower, so users can move to a different one much easier. How sticky will chat bots prove to be in the long term? Will OpenAI be able to maintain a lead in the space in the long term, the way Google was over Bing? It's possible, but it's also pretty easy to imagine other providers being competitive and a landscape where users move between different LLMs more fluidly
    - matusp 1y ago
      Another reason why social media matters is that people actually spend their free time in all those feeds. On the other hand, using LLMs is much more oriented towards specific utilities. Having 1B users who visit you once a day to ask for an email proofread will not make you profitable.
      - justincormack 1y ago
        But, like search, it captures intent to buy much better, while looking at feeds for internatinment does not. Adwords worked because of that, they could capture ad revenue on queries that lead to sales. The amount of extra context in AI chat is even better, as is the ability to steer the conversation to different options.
      - aurareturn 1y ago
- KaiserPro 1y ago
  > It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here. apart from those oranges have ~100bn a year to spend on rnd and still make a profit, where as openai doesn't So yes, it is apples to oranges. but its reality.
- edm0nd 1y ago
  I think the play here for OpenAI is they will eventually acquire reddit and that will be their first intro into a social platform. Then they will have a social platform that they will continue to use to mine AI training data from + a source of ad revenue.
l2silver 1y ago
I wonder if meta is a poor comparison for advertising because they're users tend to spend more time on their products doom scrolling, as opposed to something like google, where you get your answer right away and move on.
- aurareturn 1y ago
  ChatGPT is a hybrid between Google and Meta. People use it for product and service search and research. People also use it as a companion - especially young people. It's becoming social as well: https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/
arionmiles 1y ago
>I think you should buy the North American version of TikTok if the opportunity presents itself. The future of short videos will be heavily AI generated/assisted. I will have whatever you're smoking. If a social media platform literally proves the dead internet theory, it's not making any money.
- csomar 1y ago
  I actually believe we are speed running into this. I have seen way too many people watching AI generated videos and scrolling through them.
  - array_key_first 11mo ago
    The main problem, I think, is that if your stuff is by robots, for robots, you have no advertising leverage. I think advertisers are fairly stupid and maybe don't realize that most eyes on their ads aren't eyes at all, and couldn't buy a hair dryer even if they wanted, because they have no hair. How Facebook is still a desirable advertising platform is beyond me.
- MisterTea 1y ago
  > short videos will be heavily AI generated/assisted. Low effort input. Low effort consumption. What a depressing vision of the suture. This is why I don't use social media.
mbesto 1y ago
> Meta has 3.5 billion users and projected ~$200b revenue in 2025 Meta makes about $200B on ads, Google makes about $235B on ads. Advertising is roughly 1.5% of the total GDP of the US and hasn't changed in 20+ years. So what you have is a big ass pie with a few players fighting for it that barely grows every year. OpenAI has to somehow: 1. Compete directly with Google Gemini and Meta's Llama for a piece of users pie with a product that has very little differentiator (functionality and technically speaking). 2. Have to prove to advertisers that their single dollar ad purchase on OpenAI is categorically worth more than any other channel. 3. Have enough forward capital to continue purchasing capital-intense hardware purchases. 4. Having enough capital to weather any potential economic headwinds. I know where my bet is.
- roflyear 1y ago
  They have to compete against entities who really know what they are doing.
- aurareturn 1y ago
  OpenAI has branding power, a clear product focused mindset, focused attention, and moves faster than Google and Meta. Nearly 1 billion users in 3 years is no joke. We're on Hacker News. Y Combinator literally teaches their companies that they can beat incumbents using focus and speed. My bet is on OpenAI. When they IPO, I can easily see them with $1 trillion in valuation and raise the a record amount of money in an IPO. If Meta and Google don't see OpenAI and LLMs as an existential threat, they wouldn't invest so much. I think AI has that potential to completely disrupt Google and Meta because it fundamentally changes the way people behave. It's a paradigm shift. It isn't just playing the same game.
  - ml-anon 1y ago
    You’re betting on OpenAI a company that has literally never sold an online ad against the two kings of online advertising…cool.
    - celestialcheese 1y ago
mkup 1y ago
I can reset my advertisement profile by creating a new account on ChatGPT, for Meta platforms (Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp) this is not the case.
ugh123 1y ago
> None of them except me has Gemini or Claude app. Do they use Google docs/sheets? Or even Google Search anywhere? Then they have Gemini integrated in some way
JohnMakin 1y ago
people hate ai content. if you dont believe me go into the comment sections of basically any IG reel these days. Plus, nothing locks these videos/reels into a single platform. I’ve seen so many sora videos on IG and I’ve yet to (and dont want to) use sora.
- sigmar 1y ago
  People hit like and then comment "ai"... I think they love being mad at ai or aren't mad enough to stop hitting like. (Just today I saw a viral video on IG of a monkey on the side of a mountain path jumping onto a man's umbrella and getting taken away by the wind)
- aurareturn 11mo ago
  They also love it. I see pure AI videos go viral all the time.

gtirloni 1y ago

> Meta has 3.5 billion users and projected ~$200b revenue in 2025. Meta has WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook to account for that. OpenAI has ChatGPT (not a social platform). It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here.

k_kelly 1y ago
Google makes over a billion of its ad Revenue from search. Intent works. But I think Open AI is not a slam dunk for Ads. Gemini and AI mode will compete for the same budget, and Google's Ad machine is polished. I think eventually you will buy Ads for Open AI in Google's marketing platforms, just like most people buy bing ads in Google.
- aurareturn 1y ago
  OpenAI knows my intent better than Google. I'm telling it nearly everything from my work problems to health problems to love life problems to product research, traveling plans, etc.
  - jayd16 1y ago
    Google and Meta know your intent without you even telling them...
  - tantalor 1y ago
    That's different than intent. Your intent is the immediate need: how do I fix this leaky faucet? Your user profile (love life problems) is generally not useful there.
    - aurareturn 11mo ago
      There are plenty of things I say to ChatGPT that are not immediate need. ChatGPT can easily build a very accurate profile of me as a person and what my past, present and future needs are.
  - phatfish 1y ago
    Maybe, but OpenAI only get the data you decide to type into ChatGPT in a vibe therapy session or whatever, and they have to burn a load of GPU time to keep you feeding it more slop. Google just passively collects email and browsing history, much better data for targeting ads and way less cost to run.
  - tarsinge 1y ago
    Problem is the day Google puts a similarly priced and more powerful chatbot similar to ChatGPT and powered by Gemini most users will switch without a second thought, and Google will get all that data about their personal life too. OpenAI having a free tier with powerful models is unsustainable, brand loyalty is a joke at this stage, people will not bother going to ChatGPT if the search bar in their browser starts a discussion with Google. I’m sure big players like Google know OpenAI is a temporary scheme to get free money, they are surfing along now but they are playing the long game.
aurareturn 1y ago
OpenAI has ChatGPT (not a social platform). You didn't state reasons why not being a social platform matters here. Anyways, check this out: https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here. I don't think so. 1 billion users and a clear intention to deliver ads with an immense amount of data on users. That's a clear threat to both Meta and Google. PS. That's why Meta and Google are all in on AI. OpenAI is an existential threat to both in my humble opinion.
- ncallaway 1y ago
  > You didn't state reasons why not being a social platform matters here. The network effects matter so much more for a social platform than a chat bot. The switching costs for a user are much lower, so users can move to a different one much easier. How sticky will chat bots prove to be in the long term? Will OpenAI be able to maintain a lead in the space in the long term, the way Google was over Bing? It's possible, but it's also pretty easy to imagine other providers being competitive and a landscape where users move between different LLMs more fluidly
  - matusp 1y ago
    Another reason why social media matters is that people actually spend their free time in all those feeds. On the other hand, using LLMs is much more oriented towards specific utilities. Having 1B users who visit you once a day to ask for an email proofread will not make you profitable.
    - justincormack 1y ago
      But, like search, it captures intent to buy much better, while looking at feeds for internatinment does not. Adwords worked because of that, they could capture ad revenue on queries that lead to sales. The amount of extra context in AI chat is even better, as is the ability to steer the conversation to different options.
    - aurareturn 1y ago
KaiserPro 1y ago
> It seems to me you're comparing apples and oranges here. apart from those oranges have ~100bn a year to spend on rnd and still make a profit, where as openai doesn't So yes, it is apples to oranges. but its reality.
edm0nd 1y ago
I think the play here for OpenAI is they will eventually acquire reddit and that will be their first intro into a social platform. Then they will have a social platform that they will continue to use to mine AI training data from + a source of ad revenue.

l2silver 1y ago

I wonder if meta is a poor comparison for advertising because they're users tend to spend more time on their products doom scrolling, as opposed to something like google, where you get your answer right away and move on.

aurareturn 1y ago
ChatGPT is a hybrid between Google and Meta. People use it for product and service search and research. People also use it as a companion - especially young people. It's becoming social as well: https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/ https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/

arionmiles 1y ago

>I think you should buy the North American version of TikTok if the opportunity presents itself. The future of short videos will be heavily AI generated/assisted. I will have whatever you're smoking. If a social media platform literally proves the dead internet theory, it's not making any money.

csomar 1y ago
I actually believe we are speed running into this. I have seen way too many people watching AI generated videos and scrolling through them.
- array_key_first 11mo ago
  The main problem, I think, is that if your stuff is by robots, for robots, you have no advertising leverage. I think advertisers are fairly stupid and maybe don't realize that most eyes on their ads aren't eyes at all, and couldn't buy a hair dryer even if they wanted, because they have no hair. How Facebook is still a desirable advertising platform is beyond me.
MisterTea 1y ago
> short videos will be heavily AI generated/assisted. Low effort input. Low effort consumption. What a depressing vision of the suture. This is why I don't use social media.

mbesto 1y ago

> Meta has 3.5 billion users and projected ~$200b revenue in 2025 Meta makes about $200B on ads, Google makes about $235B on ads. Advertising is roughly 1.5% of the total GDP of the US and hasn't changed in 20+ years. So what you have is a big ass pie with a few players fighting for it that barely grows every year. OpenAI has to somehow: 1. Compete directly with Google Gemini and Meta's Llama for a piece of users pie with a product that has very little differentiator (functionality and technically speaking). 2. Have to prove to advertisers that their single dollar ad purchase on OpenAI is categorically worth more than any other channel. 3. Have enough forward capital to continue purchasing capital-intense hardware purchases. 4. Having enough capital to weather any potential economic headwinds. I know where my bet is.

roflyear 1y ago
They have to compete against entities who really know what they are doing.
aurareturn 1y ago
OpenAI has branding power, a clear product focused mindset, focused attention, and moves faster than Google and Meta. Nearly 1 billion users in 3 years is no joke. We're on Hacker News. Y Combinator literally teaches their companies that they can beat incumbents using focus and speed. My bet is on OpenAI. When they IPO, I can easily see them with $1 trillion in valuation and raise the a record amount of money in an IPO. If Meta and Google don't see OpenAI and LLMs as an existential threat, they wouldn't invest so much. I think AI has that potential to completely disrupt Google and Meta because it fundamentally changes the way people behave. It's a paradigm shift. It isn't just playing the same game.
- ml-anon 1y ago
  You’re betting on OpenAI a company that has literally never sold an online ad against the two kings of online advertising…cool.
  - celestialcheese 1y ago

mkup 1y ago

I can reset my advertisement profile by creating a new account on ChatGPT, for Meta platforms (Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp) this is not the case.

ugh123 1y ago

> None of them except me has Gemini or Claude app. Do they use Google docs/sheets? Or even Google Search anywhere? Then they have Gemini integrated in some way

JohnMakin 1y ago

people hate ai content. if you dont believe me go into the comment sections of basically any IG reel these days. Plus, nothing locks these videos/reels into a single platform. I’ve seen so many sora videos on IG and I’ve yet to (and dont want to) use sora.

sigmar 1y ago
People hit like and then comment "ai"... I think they love being mad at ai or aren't mad enough to stop hitting like. (Just today I saw a viral video on IG of a monkey on the side of a mountain path jumping onto a man's umbrella and getting taken away by the wind)
aurareturn 11mo ago
They also love it. I see pure AI videos go viral all the time.