9 ms·

Is Hokkaido defensible? Once China solves the Taiwan problem they're going to turn their sights on Korea and Japan.

by voidfunc 10mo ago

TheThirdNuke 10mo ago
The Soviets trivially took the Kuril Islands and they can trivially defeat Japan if they so desire. China's also really interested in Okinawa independence. Both countries have appealed to arguments on liberating indigenous populations to hint at future military action against Japan. It's a future war zone through and through, especially now that their PM is LARPing as Hirohito reincarnate.
- ta20240528 10mo ago
  Can you clarify this for me: the Soviets don't exist, so how can they possibly take the whole of Japan - in some future? If you mean Russia, then no.
  - TheThirdNuke 10mo ago
    Ukraine has a proper army and the support of Europe, albeit with dated weapons. Japan has neither and it's dubious whether the United States would step in. Hokkaido has always been under threat from Russia and the Soviets quickly took the Kuril Islands, which wasn't even originally theirs.
    - bamboozled 10mo ago
      Japan is a turn key nuclear state, that is all…
    - laughing_man 10mo ago
      No. The only way the Russians could prevail is to break out the nukes, and that would always run the risk of a nuclear response from the US. Japan's navy is more powerful than the Russian pacific fleet in a conventional conflict. Any attempt to land on Hokkaido would be stillborn. Even if they managed to land they would probably be pushed off pretty quickly. Japan's military is more powerful than that of Ukraine, and the Russians are already having trouble supporting troops just across the border. There's no way they would be able to support an invasion force over water. I'm skeptical the Russians could pull that off without opposition, something they would certainly have in spades.
    - axiolite 10mo ago
      > Japan has neither and it's dubious whether the United States would step in. There is NO QUESTION the US would provide a full defense of Japan against any aggressive party. The US has multiple military bases in Japan, with 35,000+ military personnel. Japan pays the US billions every year to support the US military presence there. Japan is also a too-big-to-fail economy (4th in the world) and US trading partner. And strategically, what do you think the US "pivot to Asia" means, if not defending close US allies in the Asia-Pacific from unprovoked aggression? For over 60 years the United States-Japan Alliance has served as the cornerstone of peace, stability, and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. commitment to Japan’s defense under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty of 1960 is unwavering. https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-japan/
      - danielscrubs 10mo ago
        The Budapest Memorandum (1994) gave assurances, that the U.S. would militarily intervene or defend Ukraine under attack like an alliance-treaty. Ukraine surrendered the sharpest tool in its arsenal for those assurances, its inherited nuclear arsenal, the world’s third-largest at the time. But the loss was broader than warheads; it was the surrender of a strategic future. America first means America first. All politicians will say one thing and do another, always check the incentives…
        anonymous908213 10mo ago
        The Budapest Memorandum did no such thing. It is completely and totally incomparable to the US-Japan alliance. At most, it calls for a weaselly "security council action to provide assistance". >Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
    - pjc50 10mo ago
      If the Okinawan Americans aren't going to do something useful for Japan, Japan would be very happy to kick them out and stop them harassing the locals. A land invasion of mainland Japan is so unrealistic that even the US in WW2 didn't attempt it.
    - YurgenJurgensen 10mo ago
      The Russians lost control of the Black Sea to a country that doesn’t have a navy. Its naval incompetence is legendary. There is zero chance of them conducting an amphibious invasion against anyone any time this century.
    - quickthrowman 10mo ago
      The United States defends Japan. The United States has nuclear weapons. Knowing those two facts, we can conclude that Russia will not be invading Japan as long as it is protected by the United States. The calculus is very simple when nuclear weapons are involved. Also, keep in mind that D-Day was the largest amphibious assault in history and all they had to do was cross the English Channel. Russia invading Hokkaido would be suicide, the US nuked Japan rather than try invading the homeland to end WW2 and we controlled every island surrounding Japan at the time.
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- ithkuil 10mo ago
  Japan defeated the Russian navy in 1905. I guess that means that the Empire of Japan can trivially defeat the Russian Empire if such political entities cared to exist anymore and if the result of a past confrontation was a true benchmark of the current capabilities of the respective armies and economies.
yanhangyhy 10mo ago
> Once China solves the Taiwan problem they're going to turn their sights on Korea and Japan. China will not annex Japan or South Korea. As a Chinese person, I can assure you that this is not how our mindset works at all. Most of the Western media hype about this is deliberately designed to muddy the waters around the Taiwan issue. Taiwan is different: the vast majority of people there are ethnically Chinese, so reunification is seen as an absolute necessity. But historically, China has never been good at ruling non-Han peoples. Every non-Chinese group has always been viewed as a net burden. Take Myanmar as an example: even if China occupied it and gained a warm-water port, the price would be having to assimilate tens of millions of Burmese people. That cost is simply too high; no one in China wants to pay it. The Chinese way of thinking is that only after a group has been fully Sinicized (language, culture, identity) can they be considered “one of us.” So with South Korea and Japan, the real goal is to surpass them industrially and economically, to leave them in the dust on the factory floor and in the lab. When it comes to Japan in particular, the deepest desire in many Chinese hearts is for Japan to start a war first—so China can finally settle the historical score once and for all. But even in that scenario, turning Japan into “part of China” is not on the table. No one wants 125 million thoroughly non-Sinicized Japanese inside the country; that would be seen as an endless headache, not a prize.
- voidfunc 10mo ago
  > Taiwan is different: the vast majority of people there are ethnically Chinese, so reunification is seen as an absolute necessity. Your illegitimate authoritarian government is free to surrender at any time and hand the keys back to the legitimate democratic ROC government then.
  - yanhangyhy 10mo ago
    yeah its a civil war, lets see who will won. (Thank you for acknowledging that this is a civil war — that's something you rarely see on Western forums.)
    - Larrikin 10mo ago
      Chiang Kai-shek is a standard part of the world history course in the US in high school. We know why China wants Taiwan at the personal level, much of the world is just interested in that not happening. It's a civil war like the American revolution was a civil war and France helped out.
jack_tripper 10mo ago
What's with all this scaremongering around China gonna invade everything anytime soon? How many wars has China started? In my lifetime I've only seen one major county besides Russia having a habbit of starting illegal wars whenever geopolitics doesn't go its way and it's not China.
- laughing_man 10mo ago
  China has started border skirmishes with India every twenty years or so since the founding of the PRC. And then there's Tibet. Just because they haven't initiated a mass invasion of Eastern Siberia you shouldn't get the idea China isn't pursuing an expansionist foreign policy.
  - rfoo 10mo ago
    China maintain the view that Tibet is part of China since the establishment of PRC, and they make this very explicit. Same for their border disputes with India. China never admitted that they believe it's not theirs. Mea while China does not ever say that Japan or Korea is part of China (and it's the only reason why they keep North Korea from collapsing despite it being super annoying). So, again, any example of China suddenly started to claim lands?
    - krior 10mo ago
      They also claim that the Taiwan-island is part of their territory. Since Its currently full of taiwanese people and China holds regular military exercises around that island an invasion does not seem far-fetched.
      - boringg 10mo ago
        It may not be far fetched but it would absolutely be a self inflicted wound to the PRC. Galvanizing global concern towards china.
        10mo ago
laughing_man 10mo ago
"Once China solves the Taiwan problem"? Then I suppose Japan has nothing to worry about.
- BoxedEmpathy 10mo ago
  “We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck that has lunged at us, without a moment’s hesitation. Are you ready?” - Chinese Consul-General in Osaka, Xue Jian, in reference to Japan
macleginn 10mo ago
Japan has a big army/"self-defence force", impenetrable terrain over most of its territory, and 45 tonnes of plutonium. Even if the defence treaty with the US vanishes, the probability of a foreign invasion is rather low.
Mistletoe 10mo ago
If we aren’t already in a world war from China solving Taiwan as you say, we would be in one from China taking Korea or Japan.
- ReptileMan 10mo ago
  Taiwan just the last remnant that the losing faction of the China civil war still holds. I don't think that China wants to conquer korea or japan. Having a vassal is usually cheaper than outright conquest and occupation. They just want the US vassals to switch to being China's
- actionfromafar 10mo ago
  I don't know. China is pretty successful so far in "solving Ukraine" by propping up the moth infested bear pelt USSR animatronic that is Russia.
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numpad0 10mo ago
Traditional threat to Hokkaido is Soviet tank battalions, not Chinese. It's roughly due east to Vladivostok and to south of Sakhalin island. Unless Russian Federation actually falls and these regions change hands into hostile entities, it should be okay. And there will be more important things to worry than continuing economical chip production if that happens.
- BoxedEmpathy 10mo ago
  “We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck that has lunged at us, without a moment’s hesitation. Are you ready?” -Chinese Consul-General in Osaka, Xue Jian, directed at Japan Is that not a threat?
  - numpad0 10mo ago
    Japan's also like, long as the distance between Warsaw to Barcelona. Or to Gibraltar if you include islands south to Okinawa. And Hokkaido is an "island" that's about as big as the entire Czech Republic. Is investment in a French chip factory considered risky because it's practically right in front of Russia... not really no? The Chinese threat is also being handled by rapid rearmament. JSDF has been like, dual-fast-tracking lots of things including MRBMs for operational capabilities in 2026-27 timeframes.
dragonelite 10mo ago
It depends what japan and korea will do to piss of China just to please their far away masters.
boringg 10mo ago
What kind of line is "once china solves the taiwan problem"? You assume that they will take Taiwan. Have you not been privy to the utter embarrassment of a continental power trying to take Ukraine right now? China is very aware of the isolated situation Russia is now in. They have desire to be in that situation. Noone is letting China "solve the taiwan problem" like you said. Such inflammatory language.
- mrguyorama 10mo ago
  The Ukraine invasion is the biggest boost to China's Taiwan invasion plan ever. If the world reacts to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan the way we have reacted to Russia invading Ukraine, China will consider that a great victory, and might be able to take Taiwan. If the US, Japan, and Korea do not commit fully to naval interdiction and blockading China from attacking Taiwan, Taiwan is likely to fall eventually. China is not Russia. Xi somehow is not as utterly isolated from reality as Putin is. Putin didn't even know that Ukraine would resist, and was entirely convinced that Ukrainians would welcome them. China can build new equipment, and new modern equipment at that. Russia can barely manage to bring ancient tank hulls up to 2000s level and send them to the front line. They are also running out of old hulls to do that with. China has a sizeable and meaningful air force, modern battlespace management that was shown effective by Pakistan's use in their recent conflict. Is the current US admin actually competent enough to protect Taiwan even if they want to?
SapporoChris 10mo ago
Yes. But I will entertain the idea that Hokkaido is not defensible. Now, with Hokkaido not being defensible, please explain why it has been an Japanese territory since the 15th century?
ZguideZ 10mo ago
I found this a really funny thread of answers to read. Maybe Japan should start making historical claims like China does. Japan could claim much of Asia, create a new historical narrative that the atrocities were manufactured fake news and that the oppressed peoples of Taiwan, Korea, Nanjing, South East Asia, and Oceania were illegally forced to leave the Japanese Empire due to propaganda and illegal militantism where the victors then created a fake narrative of Japanese war crimes. Maybe Japan should tear up the peacenik constitution that was forced on it by Nuclear USA and written by a woman from Kansas and turn the SDF back into the Japanese War Machine - revive industries, begin to reclaim territories for essential resources, and once again move towards the creation of a glorious co-prosperity sphere. The US seems to be reviving the NAZI war machine and is only steps away from adopting swastika as a positive symbol, so why not Japan bring back the old flag and mentality too? - I know this is ridiculous. So are most of these comments.

Is Hokkaido defensible? Once China solves the Taiwan problem they're going to turn their sights on Korea and Japan.

The Soviets trivially took the Kuril Islands and they can trivially defeat Japan if they so desire. China's also really interested in Okinawa independence. Both countries have appealed to arguments on liberating indigenous populations to hint at future military action against Japan. It's a future war zone through and through, especially now that their PM is LARPing as Hirohito reincarnate.

ta20240528 10mo ago
Can you clarify this for me: the Soviets don't exist, so how can they possibly take the whole of Japan - in some future? If you mean Russia, then no.
- TheThirdNuke 10mo ago
  Ukraine has a proper army and the support of Europe, albeit with dated weapons. Japan has neither and it's dubious whether the United States would step in. Hokkaido has always been under threat from Russia and the Soviets quickly took the Kuril Islands, which wasn't even originally theirs.
  - bamboozled 10mo ago
    Japan is a turn key nuclear state, that is all…
  - laughing_man 10mo ago
    No. The only way the Russians could prevail is to break out the nukes, and that would always run the risk of a nuclear response from the US. Japan's navy is more powerful than the Russian pacific fleet in a conventional conflict. Any attempt to land on Hokkaido would be stillborn. Even if they managed to land they would probably be pushed off pretty quickly. Japan's military is more powerful than that of Ukraine, and the Russians are already having trouble supporting troops just across the border. There's no way they would be able to support an invasion force over water. I'm skeptical the Russians could pull that off without opposition, something they would certainly have in spades.
  - axiolite 10mo ago
    > Japan has neither and it's dubious whether the United States would step in. There is NO QUESTION the US would provide a full defense of Japan against any aggressive party. The US has multiple military bases in Japan, with 35,000+ military personnel. Japan pays the US billions every year to support the US military presence there. Japan is also a too-big-to-fail economy (4th in the world) and US trading partner. And strategically, what do you think the US "pivot to Asia" means, if not defending close US allies in the Asia-Pacific from unprovoked aggression? For over 60 years the United States-Japan Alliance has served as the cornerstone of peace, stability, and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. commitment to Japan’s defense under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty of 1960 is unwavering. https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-japan/
    - danielscrubs 10mo ago
      The Budapest Memorandum (1994) gave assurances, that the U.S. would militarily intervene or defend Ukraine under attack like an alliance-treaty. Ukraine surrendered the sharpest tool in its arsenal for those assurances, its inherited nuclear arsenal, the world’s third-largest at the time. But the loss was broader than warheads; it was the surrender of a strategic future. America first means America first. All politicians will say one thing and do another, always check the incentives…
      - anonymous908213 10mo ago
        The Budapest Memorandum did no such thing. It is completely and totally incomparable to the US-Japan alliance. At most, it calls for a weaselly "security council action to provide assistance". >Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
  - pjc50 10mo ago
    If the Okinawan Americans aren't going to do something useful for Japan, Japan would be very happy to kick them out and stop them harassing the locals. A land invasion of mainland Japan is so unrealistic that even the US in WW2 didn't attempt it.
  - YurgenJurgensen 10mo ago
    The Russians lost control of the Black Sea to a country that doesn’t have a navy. Its naval incompetence is legendary. There is zero chance of them conducting an amphibious invasion against anyone any time this century.
  - quickthrowman 10mo ago
    The United States defends Japan. The United States has nuclear weapons. Knowing those two facts, we can conclude that Russia will not be invading Japan as long as it is protected by the United States. The calculus is very simple when nuclear weapons are involved. Also, keep in mind that D-Day was the largest amphibious assault in history and all they had to do was cross the English Channel. Russia invading Hokkaido would be suicide, the US nuked Japan rather than try invading the homeland to end WW2 and we controlled every island surrounding Japan at the time.
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ithkuil 10mo ago
Japan defeated the Russian navy in 1905. I guess that means that the Empire of Japan can trivially defeat the Russian Empire if such political entities cared to exist anymore and if the result of a past confrontation was a true benchmark of the current capabilities of the respective armies and economies.

yanhangyhy 10mo ago

> Once China solves the Taiwan problem they're going to turn their sights on Korea and Japan. China will not annex Japan or South Korea. As a Chinese person, I can assure you that this is not how our mindset works at all. Most of the Western media hype about this is deliberately designed to muddy the waters around the Taiwan issue. Taiwan is different: the vast majority of people there are ethnically Chinese, so reunification is seen as an absolute necessity. But historically, China has never been good at ruling non-Han peoples. Every non-Chinese group has always been viewed as a net burden. Take Myanmar as an example: even if China occupied it and gained a warm-water port, the price would be having to assimilate tens of millions of Burmese people. That cost is simply too high; no one in China wants to pay it. The Chinese way of thinking is that only after a group has been fully Sinicized (language, culture, identity) can they be considered “one of us.” So with South Korea and Japan, the real goal is to surpass them industrially and economically, to leave them in the dust on the factory floor and in the lab. When it comes to Japan in particular, the deepest desire in many Chinese hearts is for Japan to start a war first—so China can finally settle the historical score once and for all. But even in that scenario, turning Japan into “part of China” is not on the table. No one wants 125 million thoroughly non-Sinicized Japanese inside the country; that would be seen as an endless headache, not a prize.

voidfunc 10mo ago
> Taiwan is different: the vast majority of people there are ethnically Chinese, so reunification is seen as an absolute necessity. Your illegitimate authoritarian government is free to surrender at any time and hand the keys back to the legitimate democratic ROC government then.
- yanhangyhy 10mo ago
  yeah its a civil war, lets see who will won. (Thank you for acknowledging that this is a civil war — that's something you rarely see on Western forums.)
  - Larrikin 10mo ago
    Chiang Kai-shek is a standard part of the world history course in the US in high school. We know why China wants Taiwan at the personal level, much of the world is just interested in that not happening. It's a civil war like the American revolution was a civil war and France helped out.

jack_tripper 10mo ago

What's with all this scaremongering around China gonna invade everything anytime soon? How many wars has China started? In my lifetime I've only seen one major county besides Russia having a habbit of starting illegal wars whenever geopolitics doesn't go its way and it's not China.

laughing_man 10mo ago
China has started border skirmishes with India every twenty years or so since the founding of the PRC. And then there's Tibet. Just because they haven't initiated a mass invasion of Eastern Siberia you shouldn't get the idea China isn't pursuing an expansionist foreign policy.
- rfoo 10mo ago
  China maintain the view that Tibet is part of China since the establishment of PRC, and they make this very explicit. Same for their border disputes with India. China never admitted that they believe it's not theirs. Mea while China does not ever say that Japan or Korea is part of China (and it's the only reason why they keep North Korea from collapsing despite it being super annoying). So, again, any example of China suddenly started to claim lands?
  - krior 10mo ago
    They also claim that the Taiwan-island is part of their territory. Since Its currently full of taiwanese people and China holds regular military exercises around that island an invasion does not seem far-fetched.
    - boringg 10mo ago
      It may not be far fetched but it would absolutely be a self inflicted wound to the PRC. Galvanizing global concern towards china.
      - 10mo ago

laughing_man 10mo ago

"Once China solves the Taiwan problem"? Then I suppose Japan has nothing to worry about.

BoxedEmpathy 10mo ago
“We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck that has lunged at us, without a moment’s hesitation. Are you ready?” - Chinese Consul-General in Osaka, Xue Jian, in reference to Japan

macleginn 10mo ago

Japan has a big army/"self-defence force", impenetrable terrain over most of its territory, and 45 tonnes of plutonium. Even if the defence treaty with the US vanishes, the probability of a foreign invasion is rather low.

Mistletoe 10mo ago

If we aren’t already in a world war from China solving Taiwan as you say, we would be in one from China taking Korea or Japan.

ReptileMan 10mo ago
Taiwan just the last remnant that the losing faction of the China civil war still holds. I don't think that China wants to conquer korea or japan. Having a vassal is usually cheaper than outright conquest and occupation. They just want the US vassals to switch to being China's
actionfromafar 10mo ago
I don't know. China is pretty successful so far in "solving Ukraine" by propping up the moth infested bear pelt USSR animatronic that is Russia.

deleted 10mo ago

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numpad0 10mo ago

Traditional threat to Hokkaido is Soviet tank battalions, not Chinese. It's roughly due east to Vladivostok and to south of Sakhalin island. Unless Russian Federation actually falls and these regions change hands into hostile entities, it should be okay. And there will be more important things to worry than continuing economical chip production if that happens.

BoxedEmpathy 10mo ago
“We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck that has lunged at us, without a moment’s hesitation. Are you ready?” -Chinese Consul-General in Osaka, Xue Jian, directed at Japan Is that not a threat?
- numpad0 10mo ago
  Japan's also like, long as the distance between Warsaw to Barcelona. Or to Gibraltar if you include islands south to Okinawa. And Hokkaido is an "island" that's about as big as the entire Czech Republic. Is investment in a French chip factory considered risky because it's practically right in front of Russia... not really no? The Chinese threat is also being handled by rapid rearmament. JSDF has been like, dual-fast-tracking lots of things including MRBMs for operational capabilities in 2026-27 timeframes.

dragonelite 10mo ago

It depends what japan and korea will do to piss of China just to please their far away masters.

boringg 10mo ago

What kind of line is "once china solves the taiwan problem"? You assume that they will take Taiwan. Have you not been privy to the utter embarrassment of a continental power trying to take Ukraine right now? China is very aware of the isolated situation Russia is now in. They have desire to be in that situation. Noone is letting China "solve the taiwan problem" like you said. Such inflammatory language.

mrguyorama 10mo ago
The Ukraine invasion is the biggest boost to China's Taiwan invasion plan ever. If the world reacts to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan the way we have reacted to Russia invading Ukraine, China will consider that a great victory, and might be able to take Taiwan. If the US, Japan, and Korea do not commit fully to naval interdiction and blockading China from attacking Taiwan, Taiwan is likely to fall eventually. China is not Russia. Xi somehow is not as utterly isolated from reality as Putin is. Putin didn't even know that Ukraine would resist, and was entirely convinced that Ukrainians would welcome them. China can build new equipment, and new modern equipment at that. Russia can barely manage to bring ancient tank hulls up to 2000s level and send them to the front line. They are also running out of old hulls to do that with. China has a sizeable and meaningful air force, modern battlespace management that was shown effective by Pakistan's use in their recent conflict. Is the current US admin actually competent enough to protect Taiwan even if they want to?

SapporoChris 10mo ago

Yes. But I will entertain the idea that Hokkaido is not defensible. Now, with Hokkaido not being defensible, please explain why it has been an Japanese territory since the 15th century?

ZguideZ 10mo ago

I found this a really funny thread of answers to read. Maybe Japan should start making historical claims like China does. Japan could claim much of Asia, create a new historical narrative that the atrocities were manufactured fake news and that the oppressed peoples of Taiwan, Korea, Nanjing, South East Asia, and Oceania were illegally forced to leave the Japanese Empire due to propaganda and illegal militantism where the victors then created a fake narrative of Japanese war crimes. Maybe Japan should tear up the peacenik constitution that was forced on it by Nuclear USA and written by a woman from Kansas and turn the SDF back into the Japanese War Machine - revive industries, begin to reclaim territories for essential resources, and once again move towards the creation of a glorious co-prosperity sphere. The US seems to be reviving the NAZI war machine and is only steps away from adopting swastika as a positive symbol, so why not Japan bring back the old flag and mentality too? - I know this is ridiculous. So are most of these comments.