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> when AGI "drop-in office workers" become a thing How many more weeks? Also, is this before or after flying cars?
by otabdeveloper4 11mo ago
> when AGI "drop-in office workers" become a thing
How many more weeks?
Also, is this before or after flying cars?
- qgin 11mo agoLooking like 2028-2030 but it's a moving target. Since we're basically getting flying cars next year at the World Cup, I guess it's going to be after flying cars.
- chongli 11mo agoI prefer fusion power as the go-to vapourware technology. It’s been “10-20 years out” for 70 years and counting. I don’t see any reason to believe that “AGI office workers” will be ready to go by 2030. All signs right now are pointing to a looming plateau in their capabilities.
- marcosdumay 11mo agoFusion has halved the "interval until we get it" on those 50 years. AGI has doubled the "interval until we get it" twice already since 2022. Those things are not the same kind of vaporware.
- gjm11 11mo agoCould you name a specific person whose estimate of when we might get AGI has doubled twice since 2022? Or do you mean you found one person with a really short estimate in 2022, another person with a longer one in 2024, and another with a longer one now? Also, if you compare with 50 years ago, AGI has also (better than) halved the interval experts are commonly predicting since then. (Of course the experts could turn out to be hilariously wrong, for fusion or AI or both. I just don't think your comparison is anything like apples-to-apples.)
- thfuran 11mo agoFusion is always years away because funding has been at or below the minimal "fusion never" levels since the '70s: https://fire.pppl.gov/us_fusion_plan_1976.pdf https://fire.pppl.gov/us_fusion_plan_1976.pdf
- otabdeveloper4 11mo ago> pointing to a looming plateau Latest LLM's have already been declining in performance. It's not a plateau and it's not looming. We don't know what the hell we are doing. Adding more training data and parameters only degrades LLMs after a certain threshold.
- sofixa 11mo ago> Since we're basically getting flying cars next year at the World Cup That's so funny. Regular people can't hahndle regular cars. Self-driving cars barely handle 2 dimensional space within very specific confines and rules, in good weather. Existing airspace is congested to the point of being problematic in most metro areas around the world. "Flying cars" might be replacing some private heliopters, maybe. But they aren't going mainstream any time soon.
- BobaFloutist 11mo agoI also don't really understand what's supposed to be the line between flying car and helicopter. Does the flying car need to also be street legal on the ground? Does it just not have to look too much like a helicopter?
- qgin 11mo agoI think it’s anything in the category of “way more common than a helicopter to the point where normal people use them”.
- bluGill 11mo agoIt needs to get through dense downtowns where there isn't much space between buildings, and wires and skyways to dodge as well. A skilled pilot could do it - but they wouldn't try because while space physically exists there isn't enough margin for error.
- solumunus 11mo agoOk Elon.
- qgin 11mo agoIdk they seem pretty serious https://gizmodo.com/official-air-taxi-provider-of-the-2028-olympic-games-buys-california-airport-2000685420 https://gizmodo.com/official-air-taxi-provider-of-the-2028-o...