4 ms·
That's right. If the event has a 1 in 390B chance, and there are 8B tries, you would expect to observe the event 2% of the time you conduct the 8B tries. So if
by nonethewiser 1y ago
That's right. If the event has a 1 in 390B chance, and there are 8B tries, you would expect to observe the event 2% of the time you conduct the 8B tries. So if you did 8B tries 50 times you would expect it to happen once. And its something higher than 8B - current population isn't the correct sample size.
- Aperocky 1y agoThere's a lot of things that are theoretically possible, but to realistically consider them based on the known likelihood is something I'm not entertaining here.
- mlyle 1y agoThat's assuming that the distribution is purely gaussian and nothing weird happens at the tails. I agree 276 is unlikely (and how would you even test/norm such a thing?)