9 ms·
Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will get through easily. They don't have excessive debt. They can afford to lose their investments into AI. Their valuation
by nabla9 11mo ago
Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will get through easily. They don't have excessive debt. They can afford to lose their investments into AI. Their valuations will take a hit. Nvidia will lose revenue and profits, stock will go down by 60% or more, but it will also survive.
Oracle will likely fail. It funded its AI pivot with debt. The Debt-to-Revenue ratio is 1.77, the Debt-to-Equity ratio D/E is 520, and it has a free cash flow problem.
OpenAI, Anthropic, and others will be bought for cents on the dollar.
- tow21 11mo agoGoogle, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon might get through easily as companies. I don't think all G/M/M/A staff will get through easily.
- conartist6 11mo agoMicrosoft is in a pickle. They put AI lipstick on top of decades of unfixed tech debt and their relationship with their userbase isn't great. Their engineering culture is clearly not healthy. For their size and financial resources, their position in the market right now is very delicate.
- StopDisinfo910 11mo agoI don't think so. They are one of the few companies actually making money with AI as they have intelligently leveraged the position of Office 365 in companies to sell Copilot. Their AI investment plans are, well, plans which could be scaled down easily. Worst case scenario for them is their investment in OpenAI becoming worthless. It would hurt but is hardly life threatening. Their revenue driver is clearly their position at the heart of entreprise IT and they are pretty much untouchable here.
- thewebguyd 11mo ago> Worst case scenario for them is their investment in OpenAI becoming worthless. And even then, if that happens when the bubble pops, they'll likely just acquire OpenAI on the cheap. Thanks to the current agreement, it already runs on Azure, they already have access to OpenAI's IP, and Microsoft has already developed all their Copilots on top of it. It would be near-zero cost for Microsoft at that point to just absorb them and continue on as they are today. Microsoft isn't going anywhere, for better or for worse. Despite them pissing off users with Windows, what HN forgets, is they aren't Microsoft's customer. The individual user/consumer never was. We may not want what MS is selling, but their enterprise customers definitely do.
- throwawayffffas 11mo agoI think that's the impression you get if you focus on Microsoft as a OS vendor. It's not that anymore, that's why their OS sucks for many years now. Their main business is b2b, cloud services, and azure. I think they are pretty safe from OpenAI. Plus they have invested big in OpenAI as well.
- Ekaros 11mo agoWindows is hard to replace in large organizations. Is there actually any real AI competitors in the stack? Well Google, maybe. The whole Windows+Office+AD+Exchange and now Azure stack is unlikely to go any time soon. However badly they screw it up.
- robotnikman 11mo agoTrue. Basically any medium to large scale business is reliant on Windows/Office/AD. While there are open source alternatives to Windows/Office, I can't think of a good open source alternative to AD/Group Policy/etc
- goalieca 11mo agoM365 is arguably far worse than office97. Drive/sharepoint is confusing and team is especially broken. Azure is a product all right, but there’s nothing particularly better there than anywhere else.
- eitally 11mo agoI disagree. They're the one place that can get away without investing in frontier model research and still win in the enterprise. Google is only place that serves the enterprise (Workspace for productivity, Cloud for IT, Devices for end users) AND conducts meaningful AI research. AWS doesn't (they can sell cloud effectively, but don't have any meaningful in-house AI R&D), Meta doesn't (they don't cover enterprise and, frankly, nobody trusts Zuck... and they're flaky. Oracle doesn't. They have grown their cloud business rapidly by 1) easy button for Oracle on-prem to move to OCI, and 2) acting like a big colo for bare metal "cloud" infra. No AI. Open AI has fundamental research and is starting to have products, but it's still niche. Same as Anthropic. They're not in the same ball game as the others, and they're going to continue to pay billions to the hyperscalers annually for infra, too. This is Google's game to lose, imho, but the biggest loser will be AWS (not Azure/Microsoft).
- Blamklmo 11mo ago[dead]
- hyperadvanced 11mo agoI agree that AWS/Amazon seems to be uniquely badly positioned to benefit at all from AI, while also being potentially screwed by AI companies failing.
- Blamklmo 11mo ago[dead]
- nabla9 11mo agoI cry for Elon, that precious jewel of a human being. Tesla (P/E: 273, PEG: 16.3) the car maker without robots, robotaxis is less than 15% of the Tesla valuation at best. When the AI hype dies, selloff starts and negative sentiment hits, we have below $200B market cap company. It will hurt Elon mentally. He will need a hug.
- slaw 11mo agoNever bet against TSLA. Elon will just start selling tickets Mars colony.
- officeplant 11mo agoHe's gonna need a lot of ketamine in the aftermath that's for sure.
- Rover222 11mo agoThen show us your puts, mr buffet
- gizajob 11mo agoThe fanboys obsessively buy any dip. It should have been back at a $200billion market cap countless times but it never gets there.
- rhetocj23 11mo ago[dead]
- ceo_tim_crook 11mo ago[dead]
- aurareturn 11mo agoOpenAI, Anthropic, and others will be bought for cents on the dollar. OpenAI is existential threat to all big tech including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple. Hence, they're all spending lavishly right now to not get left behind. Meta --> GenAI Content creation can disrupt Instagram. ChatGPT likely has more data on a person than Instagram does by now for ads. 800 million daily active users for ChatGPT already. Google --> Cash cow search is under threat from ChatGPT. Microsoft --> Productivity/work is fundamentally changed with GenAI. Apple --> OpenAI can make a device that runs ChatGPT as the OS instead of relying on iOS. I'm betting that OpenAI will emerge bigger than current big tech in ~5 years or less.
- nabla9 11mo agoOpenAI has no technical moat (others can do what they do), generate content, all have the same data. OpenAI does not expect to be cash-flow positive until 2029. When no new capital comes in, it can't continue. OpenAI can's survive any kind of price competition.
- aurareturn 11mo agoThey consistently have the best or second best models. They have infrastructure that serves 800 million monthly active users. Investors are lining up to give them money. When they IPO, they'll easily be worth over $1 trillion. There's price competition right now. They're still surviving. If there is price competition, they're the most likely to survive.
- nabla9 11mo ago> Investors are lining up to give them money. When they IPO, they'll easily be worth over $1 trillion. Your premise is that there is no bubble. We are talking about what happens when bubble bursts. Without investor money drying out there is no bubble.
- aurareturn 11mo agoI think we are in 1995 of the dotcom bubble for AI.
- belter 11mo agoYou will be able to rent a whole Meta datacenter with thousands of NVIDIA B200 for $5/hour. AWS will become unprofitable due to abundance of capacity...
- DeathArrow 11mo agoThat's sounds nice. I can run FLUX or SDXL on all those NVIDIAs and fill the Internet with porn.
- belter 11mo ago> fill the Internet with porn.... I have got news for you...
- surgical_fire 11mo ago> Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will get through easily. They don't have excessive debt. They can afford to lose their investments into AI. Survive, yes. I don't think anybody ever questioned this. I wonder if they will be able to remain as "growth stocks", however. These companies are allergic to be seen as nature companies, with more modest growth profiles, share profits, etc.
- Balgair 11mo ago> OpenAI, Anthropic, and others will be bought for cents on the dollar. And just like 23andme, so will all that data be sold for dimes.
- ribosometronome 11mo agoIf it's just like 23andme, that sale would be to Sam Altman.
- tim333 11mo ago>Debt-to-Equity ratio D/E is 520 It's actually 520% or 5.2 - still high but 520 would be crazy.