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I honestly believed that Britain would find a way to hold a second referendum before Brexit, given that the polling almost universally favored "remain" after th

I honestly believed that Britain would find a way to hold a second referendum before Brexit, given that the polling almost universally favored "remain" after the vote, and the vote itself was so close (52% to 48%). Now what surprises me is the lack of enthusiasm for Scottish independence (62% voted to remain), though I can't claim to keep up on Scottish politics. Maybe someone knows?

mmooss 11mo ago
52-48 is a reasonably solid win in elections.
- standardUser 11mo ago
  It's not uncommon in some democracies to require multiple votes for major changes (such as constitutional changes or leaving/entering intergovernmental orgs). And 4 points may be a clear margin, but it's not a large margin, and polling showed an immediate shift in opinion. In terms of the Scots, 62% is an actual blowout. And I'd think it might be enough to overcome the 10 point gap on their vote on independence (pre-Brexit).
- hdgvhicv 11mo ago
  In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way.
- crote 11mo ago
  Yes, but this wasn't the usual two-party election. The 1972 referendum to join the EU got a 67% "yes" vote, the 2011 Alternate Vote referendum got a 68% "no" vote. You see similar number with, say, California's ballot propositions: a "solid win" is closer to a two-thirds majority. 52-48 is close enough to flip depending on the weather.
vidarh 11mo ago
A reasonable way of achieving that would have been to announce a referendum on the deal, with the other option being to remain. But it was idiocy to not set those kinds of terms out before the vote.
tim333 11mo ago
I went on a couple of marches for that but no. The percentage of MPs willing to vote for that never went higher than ~40 or 45%. I think the thing is a bit of a travesty though. At the time of the vote, the apathetic who didn't bother voting were about 60% remain so the overall balance of the population was pro remain but it got forced through for better or worse, probably worse.

mmooss 11mo ago

52-48 is a reasonably solid win in elections.

standardUser 11mo ago
It's not uncommon in some democracies to require multiple votes for major changes (such as constitutional changes or leaving/entering intergovernmental orgs). And 4 points may be a clear margin, but it's not a large margin, and polling showed an immediate shift in opinion. In terms of the Scots, 62% is an actual blowout. And I'd think it might be enough to overcome the 10 point gap on their vote on independence (pre-Brexit).
hdgvhicv 11mo ago
In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way.
crote 11mo ago
Yes, but this wasn't the usual two-party election. The 1972 referendum to join the EU got a 67% "yes" vote, the 2011 Alternate Vote referendum got a 68% "no" vote. You see similar number with, say, California's ballot propositions: a "solid win" is closer to a two-thirds majority. 52-48 is close enough to flip depending on the weather.

vidarh 11mo ago

A reasonable way of achieving that would have been to announce a referendum on the deal, with the other option being to remain. But it was idiocy to not set those kinds of terms out before the vote.

tim333 11mo ago

I went on a couple of marches for that but no. The percentage of MPs willing to vote for that never went higher than ~40 or 45%. I think the thing is a bit of a travesty though. At the time of the vote, the apathetic who didn't bother voting were about 60% remain so the overall balance of the population was pro remain but it got forced through for better or worse, probably worse.