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Starship will never go to Mars. It's very unlikely it will go to the Moon.

PeaceTed 1y ago
I have said this for years. Starship will eventually go to orbit, it MIGHT go a few times to the Moon. It will lucky if it ever makes it to Mars. More than happy to be proven wrong. I mean they are still progressing but it is just a case of figuring out how long their runway is (economics).
- travisgriggs 1y ago
  Cmon. Don’t kill my dream. I dream of Elon musk flying to Mars. And staying there.
  - josefx 1y ago
    He hasn't even been to orbit.
  - kakacik 1y ago
    ... but alone. We don't want some Expanse-like scenario down the line with fascist part of mankind completely unhinged. Once he is over then colonize all you want.
  - ubercore 1y ago
    Oops. Earth's space connection to X just went down. We expect service to resume in about one martian lifetime.
  - 4ggr0 1y ago
    i would be sooooooo sad if we get a challenger #2 while sending musk up. depends on if he's the only one on board.
- imtringued 1y ago
  Anyone who is paying attention knows that Starship is mostly going to be a launch vehicle for Starlink. It's very unlikely that the upper stage will ever support external payloads.
  - Unroasted6154 1y ago
    Why wouldn't they make it for external payload if they get the cost per kg lower than F9? Running starship only is going to be cheaper than running both rockets, except if the economics of starship are worse (in which case, it would not be used for starlink either).
- avmich 1y ago
  Can you provide your logic for this conclusion?
boxed 1y ago
Have you bet on that on some betting market? I'd like to take that bet.
- jojobas 1y ago
  I have not, but I just checked and the odds for HLS moon landing before 2028 are at 12%. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmoon/nasa-lands-on-the-moon/moon https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmoon/nasa-lands-on-the-moon/moo...
  - boxed 1y ago
    12% odds for 3 years seems fairly resonable for a manned landing. Your statement of "Starship will never go to Mars. It's very unlikely it will go to the Moon" which sounds like it includes even unmanned test landnings is a quite different beast.
    - jojobas 1y ago
      There are more possible bets on manifold, you do you. I'm not really a betting man, but given the HLS budget is spent and most of technology is not nearly developed I'd say even an unmanned Moon landing is at least 5 years and $10 billion away and Mars is pure fantasy.
      - boxed 11mo ago
        > but given the HLS budget is spent What does that mean? Starship is basically self-funded by SpaceX and the amount of money they got for the HLS contract is something they blew way past even before the contract, that doesn't make much sense.

I have said this for years. Starship will eventually go to orbit, it MIGHT go a few times to the Moon. It will lucky if it ever makes it to Mars. More than happy to be proven wrong. I mean they are still progressing but it is just a case of figuring out how long their runway is (economics).

travisgriggs 1y ago
Cmon. Don’t kill my dream. I dream of Elon musk flying to Mars. And staying there.
- josefx 1y ago
  He hasn't even been to orbit.
- kakacik 1y ago
  ... but alone. We don't want some Expanse-like scenario down the line with fascist part of mankind completely unhinged. Once he is over then colonize all you want.
- ubercore 1y ago
  Oops. Earth's space connection to X just went down. We expect service to resume in about one martian lifetime.
- 4ggr0 1y ago
  i would be sooooooo sad if we get a challenger #2 while sending musk up. depends on if he's the only one on board.
imtringued 1y ago
Anyone who is paying attention knows that Starship is mostly going to be a launch vehicle for Starlink. It's very unlikely that the upper stage will ever support external payloads.
- Unroasted6154 1y ago
  Why wouldn't they make it for external payload if they get the cost per kg lower than F9? Running starship only is going to be cheaper than running both rockets, except if the economics of starship are worse (in which case, it would not be used for starlink either).
avmich 1y ago
Can you provide your logic for this conclusion?

boxed 1y ago

Have you bet on that on some betting market? I'd like to take that bet.

jojobas 1y ago
I have not, but I just checked and the odds for HLS moon landing before 2028 are at 12%. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmoon/nasa-lands-on-the-moon/moon https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmoon/nasa-lands-on-the-moon/moo...
- boxed 1y ago
  12% odds for 3 years seems fairly resonable for a manned landing. Your statement of "Starship will never go to Mars. It's very unlikely it will go to the Moon" which sounds like it includes even unmanned test landnings is a quite different beast.
  - jojobas 1y ago
    There are more possible bets on manifold, you do you. I'm not really a betting man, but given the HLS budget is spent and most of technology is not nearly developed I'd say even an unmanned Moon landing is at least 5 years and $10 billion away and Mars is pure fantasy.
    - boxed 11mo ago
      > but given the HLS budget is spent What does that mean? Starship is basically self-funded by SpaceX and the amount of money they got for the HLS contract is something they blew way past even before the contract, that doesn't make much sense.