4 ms·

$170k per buisness customer. That's not including existing debt and opex. Good luck paying that back, especially as AI is basically commodity now.

DANmode 1y ago
Over a decade? Also, > customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue—has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year. isn’t unconvincing.
- olivermuty 1y ago
  None of this infra is worth anything more than five years from now.
  - EMM_386 1y ago
    How do you think computing companies work? They buy hardware, replace it as the years go on, and continue doing business. The investment isn't just in raw compute - they have to build buildings, pay staff, and other things. For the hardware and software - they just keep pace as all the other computing companies have to.
- KaiserPro 1y ago
  Lets put that quote in its full context, because its designed to sound much more impressive than it actually is. > Anthropic serves more than 300,000 business customers, and our number of large accounts—customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue—has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year. Let me deconstruct that: > Anthropic serves more than 300,000 business customers Hard fact. No qualification on spend or activity, are they on trails or fully paid with contracts and minimum spend > and our number of large accounts—customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue run-rate revenue is an extrapolation. (https://www.fool.com/terms/r/run-rate/ https://www.fool.com/terms/r/run-rate/) That could be buisnesses that trail anthropic for a month, spend 24K and think "fuck thats expensive" and stops spending. average that over 2 months, then times by 12, boom 100k account. > has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year. no starting base.... Its unconvincing, because its smoke and mirrors. Give me the numbers of paying customers, over time with revenue. Then show the opex/capex.
  - DANmode 1y ago
    How impulse-buy has business AI licensing got? Is it really a surprise later, the cost?
    - KaiserPro 1y ago
      Less impulse, more "oh we expected that we'd get more return". We have a project at the moment thats all based around sharepoint. They have ingested many tens of thousands of documents, and are expecting that MS copilot studio will be able to a) RAG and B) produce meaningful answers with a 4 line prompt.
      - DANmode 1y ago
        Does it take more than a quarter or two to figure that out?
        KaiserPro 1y ago
        Thats my point right? you get monthly billing, look at the curve and go "oops thats not good" And then cut spending. The point is, run-rate revenue, which is extrapolated rather than _actual_ can easily mask this change, depending on how its calculated.
        DANmode 1y ago
        I’m following - run-rate is definitely the buried lede here. Thanks!
eitally 1y ago
Have you seen their 2025 growth curve (and projections)? https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1lwdwd6/anthropic_was_at_1b_in_annualized_revenue_at_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1lwdwd6/anth...
- justapassenger 1y ago
  Are you saying that in next 10 years they'll make more money that there's an atoms in the universe?
- KaiserPro 1y ago
  have you seen their cost curves and projections as well?
- sunir 1y ago
  Growth curves mean nothing if you're selling $0.90 dollars. You have to show a growth curve when price > cost. It's not even clear that value > cost. I absolutely love Anthropic; but I am worried about the fiscal wall they will hit that will ratchet up my opex as they will need to steeply raise prices.
  - simonw 1y ago
    So the critical question here really is whether they are selling API access to their models for less than the unit cost it takes to serve them.
    - ares623 1y ago
      But inference is cheap! If they stop doing everything and become Inference Inc., they'll be profitable.
      - Gigachad 1y ago
        Until China drops another open weight model you can run yourself at cost price.
tootie 1y ago
Also, 800 permanent employees is $62.5M/employee.
- datadrivenangel 1y ago
  With the 2400 temporary employees it's $14M/job, which is very very capital intensive. If trends continue, all investment in the economy will be directed by about 6 people at a big AI company, and what will money mean at that point?

DANmode 1y ago

Over a decade? Also, > customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue—has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year. isn’t unconvincing.

olivermuty 1y ago
None of this infra is worth anything more than five years from now.
- EMM_386 1y ago
  How do you think computing companies work? They buy hardware, replace it as the years go on, and continue doing business. The investment isn't just in raw compute - they have to build buildings, pay staff, and other things. For the hardware and software - they just keep pace as all the other computing companies have to.
KaiserPro 1y ago
Lets put that quote in its full context, because its designed to sound much more impressive than it actually is. > Anthropic serves more than 300,000 business customers, and our number of large accounts—customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue—has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year. Let me deconstruct that: > Anthropic serves more than 300,000 business customers Hard fact. No qualification on spend or activity, are they on trails or fully paid with contracts and minimum spend > and our number of large accounts—customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue run-rate revenue is an extrapolation. (https://www.fool.com/terms/r/run-rate/ https://www.fool.com/terms/r/run-rate/) That could be buisnesses that trail anthropic for a month, spend 24K and think "fuck thats expensive" and stops spending. average that over 2 months, then times by 12, boom 100k account. > has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year. no starting base.... Its unconvincing, because its smoke and mirrors. Give me the numbers of paying customers, over time with revenue. Then show the opex/capex.
- DANmode 1y ago
  How impulse-buy has business AI licensing got? Is it really a surprise later, the cost?
  - KaiserPro 1y ago
    Less impulse, more "oh we expected that we'd get more return". We have a project at the moment thats all based around sharepoint. They have ingested many tens of thousands of documents, and are expecting that MS copilot studio will be able to a) RAG and B) produce meaningful answers with a 4 line prompt.
    - DANmode 1y ago
      Does it take more than a quarter or two to figure that out?
      - KaiserPro 1y ago
        Thats my point right? you get monthly billing, look at the curve and go "oops thats not good" And then cut spending. The point is, run-rate revenue, which is extrapolated rather than _actual_ can easily mask this change, depending on how its calculated.
        DANmode 1y ago
        I’m following - run-rate is definitely the buried lede here. Thanks!

eitally 1y ago

Have you seen their 2025 growth curve (and projections)? https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1lwdwd6/anthropic_was_at_1b_in_annualized_revenue_at_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1lwdwd6/anth...

justapassenger 1y ago
Are you saying that in next 10 years they'll make more money that there's an atoms in the universe?
KaiserPro 1y ago
have you seen their cost curves and projections as well?
sunir 1y ago
Growth curves mean nothing if you're selling $0.90 dollars. You have to show a growth curve when price > cost. It's not even clear that value > cost. I absolutely love Anthropic; but I am worried about the fiscal wall they will hit that will ratchet up my opex as they will need to steeply raise prices.
- simonw 1y ago
  So the critical question here really is whether they are selling API access to their models for less than the unit cost it takes to serve them.
  - ares623 1y ago
    But inference is cheap! If they stop doing everything and become Inference Inc., they'll be profitable.
    - Gigachad 1y ago
      Until China drops another open weight model you can run yourself at cost price.

tootie 1y ago

Also, 800 permanent employees is $62.5M/employee.

datadrivenangel 1y ago
With the 2400 temporary employees it's $14M/job, which is very very capital intensive. If trends continue, all investment in the economy will be directed by about 6 people at a big AI company, and what will money mean at that point?