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Why can't they estimate the immigration (and emigration) rate like they estimate the birth rate and death rate? Both of those also change in response to numerou
by schoen 11mo ago
Why can't they estimate the immigration (and emigration) rate like they estimate the birth rate and death rate? Both of those also change in response to numerous factors (including economics, culture, and technology), and both of them can also be estimated with statistical models.
- jig_forty 11mo agoThey can and do but it's much less reliable. Births and deaths are systematically recorded, and fertility rates are shaped by comparatively stable factors like education levels, access to family planning and gradual cultural shifts. Mortality rates follow similarly predictable trends. Whereas migration flows are heavily influenced by sudden events that are difficult to anticipate, like economic crises, political instability, wars, natural disasters and so on. The data is less complete too, for example unauthorized border crossings will not be recorded officially in cases where these are undetected.
- add-sub-mul-div 11mo agoI'm sure that strategy was used until open xenophobes got into power and wanted to nurture the fear of their supporters by artificially raising the urgency.