4 ms·

Easy solution, bomb more Russian oil infrastructure.

nradov 1y ago
Sure, but we should do that anyway regardless of oil prices.
alephnerd 1y ago
1. A significant portion of that ONG infrastructure is in the Russian Far East - especially those that are furnishing the Asian market 2. Japanese, Chinese, Indian, and South Korean companies and SOEs all have significant stakes and investments in Russia's ONG infrastructure, such as Sakhalin-I (Japan's Mitsui Group and India's ONGC), Sakhalin-II (Korea's KOGAS and Japan's Tohoku Electric), and Power of Siberia (China's CNPC), so any attack on Japanese, Chinese, Indian, or Korean ONG infrastructure in Russia is viewed as a red line by these countries. 3. Saudi Arabia remains a competitor against Shale, and would continue it's price war against American Shale.
- actionfromafar 1y ago
  Practically, Ukraine can’t reach that infrastructure anyway. Making western Russia an oil free zone will probably suffice.
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    But most oil exports that are subsidizing the Russian economy and providing forex are being exported from the Russian Far East. Hitting infra in Western Russia makes it painful for civilians and does have a psychological impact of highlighting to the Russia public how war has consequences, but by and large it doesn't do much given that Russia still has the capability to continue garnering foreign currency or operating with foreign markets. Furthermore, those strikes aren't truly crippling [0] to Russian ONG capacity and the associated sanctions won't have much of an impact given how diversified Russian ONG companies are [1], with JVs and stakes in Western ambivalent countries like China, Congo, Egypt, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and others. The psychological impact of such strikes cannot be understated, but it's not really painful for Russia given that they have chosen to dig in and believe that they can win an economic war of attrition [2] as it stands. If the much more isolated Maduro regime in Venezuela or the Khamenei regime in Iran are able to hold onto power, it's hard to see how these strikes can impact that Putin regime in what has become a war of attrition, especially when regional powers like Vietnam have begun pivoting back to Russia [3], and larger powers like China [4] and India [5] are doubling down on Russian investments. [0] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1... [1] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-new-sanctions-effects?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1... [2] - https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapter https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapt... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/3-takeaways-from-vietnams-drift-toward-russia-and-away-from-america.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/3-takeaways-fr... [4] - https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/power-of-siberia-2-russias-pivot-chinas-leverage-and-global-gas-implications/ https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/power-of-siberia-2-rus... [5] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-pact-with-sanctioned-russian-firm-build-civil-aircraft-2025-10-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-pact-with-sa...
    - actionfromafar 1y ago
      Putin may not lose power, but may lose ability to keep the logistics of an invasion force. Also, none of those other countries are locked in a war of attrition. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/26/putin-fears-another-coup-as-russia-finally-begins-to-buckle/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/26/putin-fears-...
      - alephnerd 1y ago
        Iran was in a de facto decade long state of war with troops, munitions, and significant capital going to theatres in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, Libya, and Sudan - just like Russia has been in Ukraine. > Putin may not lose power, but may lose ability to keep the logistics of an invasion force That is true and highly likely, but that isn't a win either, especially if Russia changes it's tune to turning Ukraine into an economic war of attrition, which seems to be the plan given their recent pivot to targeting Ukrainian energy and industrial infrastructure. Since Russia can't drive troops into Kyiv, they are trying to destroy Ukraine's infra to such a degree that it would require a Herculean amount of investment from European capitals, which would be difficult to fully unlock due to Ukraine not being a part of the EU and face pressure from European nations own budgets for rearmament. A frozen conflict with much of Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, and large portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson remaining under Russian control isn't a win for Ukraine, and longer term freezes Ukraine out of the EU and NATO because conducting an election during an active war with a nation that has previously meddled in their elections is unrealistic, but the EU can't make an exception for Ukraine due to internal votes along with the precedent it sets for other EU ascension members.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > Ukraine can’t reach that infrastructure Eh, a single hit on an eastern target would be strategically worth it. Moscow would be forced to divert air defences.
    - alephnerd 1y ago
      How would Ukraine reach ONG and industrial hubs like Vladivostok, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Yakutsk, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, or Omsk? They can try and leverage deep sabotage such as the truck drone attack from a couple months ago but such operations aren't scalable, and would draw ire from Asian countries if it hit their investments - especially given that China is one of Ukraine's largest trade partners and has control over vast swathes of Ukraine's industrial capacity from pre-2022 FDI via OBOR.
      - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
        > They can try and leverage deep sabotage such as the truck drone attack Container ships. Hell, hide the system in a bail of weed. (We could almost certainly provide them with the intelligence required. Russia and North Korea both engage in extensive black market trade.)
        alephnerd 1y ago
        We can reach Vladivostok and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk by container ship (the others are inland), but like I mentioned before you hit the second issue of potentially miffing and alienating Asian partners like Japan and South Korea, semi-aligned states like India, and opposing states like China. And even Ukraine can't afford to alienate China given the level of control and ownership China has over Ukrainian industrial capacity and infra [0] That's why we haven't seen incidents in the Far East to the same scale as those in Siberia. Honestly, it's a tough nut to crack if the EU, UK, and the US don't provide boots on the ground but we obviously can't given our priorities in the Pacific. [0] - https://geostrategy.org.ua/en/analysis/briefs/kitay-postup-hizhaka-ukrayinskiy-keys/zavantazhiti-pdf https://geostrategy.org.ua/en/analysis/briefs/kitay-postup-h...

Sure, but we should do that anyway regardless of oil prices.

1. A significant portion of that ONG infrastructure is in the Russian Far East - especially those that are furnishing the Asian market 2. Japanese, Chinese, Indian, and South Korean companies and SOEs all have significant stakes and investments in Russia's ONG infrastructure, such as Sakhalin-I (Japan's Mitsui Group and India's ONGC), Sakhalin-II (Korea's KOGAS and Japan's Tohoku Electric), and Power of Siberia (China's CNPC), so any attack on Japanese, Chinese, Indian, or Korean ONG infrastructure in Russia is viewed as a red line by these countries. 3. Saudi Arabia remains a competitor against Shale, and would continue it's price war against American Shale.

actionfromafar 1y ago
Practically, Ukraine can’t reach that infrastructure anyway. Making western Russia an oil free zone will probably suffice.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  But most oil exports that are subsidizing the Russian economy and providing forex are being exported from the Russian Far East. Hitting infra in Western Russia makes it painful for civilians and does have a psychological impact of highlighting to the Russia public how war has consequences, but by and large it doesn't do much given that Russia still has the capability to continue garnering foreign currency or operating with foreign markets. Furthermore, those strikes aren't truly crippling [0] to Russian ONG capacity and the associated sanctions won't have much of an impact given how diversified Russian ONG companies are [1], with JVs and stakes in Western ambivalent countries like China, Congo, Egypt, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and others. The psychological impact of such strikes cannot be understated, but it's not really painful for Russia given that they have chosen to dig in and believe that they can win an economic war of attrition [2] as it stands. If the much more isolated Maduro regime in Venezuela or the Khamenei regime in Iran are able to hold onto power, it's hard to see how these strikes can impact that Putin regime in what has become a war of attrition, especially when regional powers like Vietnam have begun pivoting back to Russia [3], and larger powers like China [4] and India [5] are doubling down on Russian investments. [0] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1... [1] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-new-sanctions-effects?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1... [2] - https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapter https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapt... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/3-takeaways-from-vietnams-drift-toward-russia-and-away-from-america.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/3-takeaways-fr... [4] - https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/power-of-siberia-2-russias-pivot-chinas-leverage-and-global-gas-implications/ https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/power-of-siberia-2-rus... [5] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-pact-with-sanctioned-russian-firm-build-civil-aircraft-2025-10-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-pact-with-sa...
  - actionfromafar 1y ago
    Putin may not lose power, but may lose ability to keep the logistics of an invasion force. Also, none of those other countries are locked in a war of attrition. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/26/putin-fears-another-coup-as-russia-finally-begins-to-buckle/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/26/putin-fears-...
    - alephnerd 1y ago
      Iran was in a de facto decade long state of war with troops, munitions, and significant capital going to theatres in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, Libya, and Sudan - just like Russia has been in Ukraine. > Putin may not lose power, but may lose ability to keep the logistics of an invasion force That is true and highly likely, but that isn't a win either, especially if Russia changes it's tune to turning Ukraine into an economic war of attrition, which seems to be the plan given their recent pivot to targeting Ukrainian energy and industrial infrastructure. Since Russia can't drive troops into Kyiv, they are trying to destroy Ukraine's infra to such a degree that it would require a Herculean amount of investment from European capitals, which would be difficult to fully unlock due to Ukraine not being a part of the EU and face pressure from European nations own budgets for rearmament. A frozen conflict with much of Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, and large portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson remaining under Russian control isn't a win for Ukraine, and longer term freezes Ukraine out of the EU and NATO because conducting an election during an active war with a nation that has previously meddled in their elections is unrealistic, but the EU can't make an exception for Ukraine due to internal votes along with the precedent it sets for other EU ascension members.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > Ukraine can’t reach that infrastructure Eh, a single hit on an eastern target would be strategically worth it. Moscow would be forced to divert air defences.
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    How would Ukraine reach ONG and industrial hubs like Vladivostok, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Yakutsk, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, or Omsk? They can try and leverage deep sabotage such as the truck drone attack from a couple months ago but such operations aren't scalable, and would draw ire from Asian countries if it hit their investments - especially given that China is one of Ukraine's largest trade partners and has control over vast swathes of Ukraine's industrial capacity from pre-2022 FDI via OBOR.
    - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
      > They can try and leverage deep sabotage such as the truck drone attack Container ships. Hell, hide the system in a bail of weed. (We could almost certainly provide them with the intelligence required. Russia and North Korea both engage in extensive black market trade.)
      - alephnerd 1y ago
        We can reach Vladivostok and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk by container ship (the others are inland), but like I mentioned before you hit the second issue of potentially miffing and alienating Asian partners like Japan and South Korea, semi-aligned states like India, and opposing states like China. And even Ukraine can't afford to alienate China given the level of control and ownership China has over Ukrainian industrial capacity and infra [0] That's why we haven't seen incidents in the Far East to the same scale as those in Siberia. Honestly, it's a tough nut to crack if the EU, UK, and the US don't provide boots on the ground but we obviously can't given our priorities in the Pacific. [0] - https://geostrategy.org.ua/en/analysis/briefs/kitay-postup-hizhaka-ukrayinskiy-keys/zavantazhiti-pdf https://geostrategy.org.ua/en/analysis/briefs/kitay-postup-h...