4 ms·

> general economic decline I'm not seeing it, do you have any proof you can offer that your statement is true?

deleted 11mo ago
[deleted]
Herring 11mo ago
https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/us-gdp https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/us... https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/is-ai-already-driving-us-growth/ https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/... EY forecasts 1.7% GDP growth, most of which is AI (~1.1% according to jpmorgan). The broader economy is facing headwinds (policy uncertainty, tariffs, etc etc).
- ailegalbeagle 11mo ago
  The signs point to a mixed picture, not a general economic decline.
  - Herring 11mo ago
    EY says > Overall, underlying economic momentum remained steady in the first half of the year despite mounting policy headwinds. But with the impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty becoming increasingly visible, slower US growth and higher inflation are still on the horizon. Trump inherited a good economy and set it towards decline. If that's still not clear stay tuned, there's more to come.
deleted 11mo ago
[deleted]
matwood 11mo ago
Unemployment is the highest since 2021: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate Consumer staples have seen almost a 20% decline in EPS YoY: https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_consumer_staples_earnings_per_share https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_consumer_staples_ea... A specific example is Chipotle. It could certainly be company specific, but could also highlight a consumer trend. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/chipotle-stock-falls-after-q3-earnings-report.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/chipotle-stock-falls-after-q... Still, most analysts attributed the slowdown to industrywide challenges, not company-specific issues that Chipotle needs to address. Unemployment, increased student loan repayments and slower real wage growth accounting for inflation are weighing on consumers’ spending, according to Boatwright.
- ghaff 11mo ago
  I'm not sure how much significance I would attribute to a specific fairly crappy mid-range chain restaurant's woes.
Balgair 11mo ago
Total anecdote here: Watching college ball today and nearly every commercial (80%+) are Christmas commercials in some way. The day after Halloween, not the day after Thanksgiving. I know Christmas creep is a thing, and I may not have been paying attention in past years, but it seems like companies are desperate for black Friday to come this year

deleted 11mo ago

[deleted]

https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/us-gdp https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/us... https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/is-ai-already-driving-us-growth/ https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/... EY forecasts 1.7% GDP growth, most of which is AI (~1.1% according to jpmorgan). The broader economy is facing headwinds (policy uncertainty, tariffs, etc etc).

ailegalbeagle 11mo ago
The signs point to a mixed picture, not a general economic decline.
- Herring 11mo ago
  EY says > Overall, underlying economic momentum remained steady in the first half of the year despite mounting policy headwinds. But with the impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty becoming increasingly visible, slower US growth and higher inflation are still on the horizon. Trump inherited a good economy and set it towards decline. If that's still not clear stay tuned, there's more to come.

deleted 11mo ago

[deleted]

matwood 11mo ago

Unemployment is the highest since 2021: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate Consumer staples have seen almost a 20% decline in EPS YoY: https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_consumer_staples_earnings_per_share https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_consumer_staples_ea... A specific example is Chipotle. It could certainly be company specific, but could also highlight a consumer trend. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/chipotle-stock-falls-after-q3-earnings-report.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/chipotle-stock-falls-after-q... Still, most analysts attributed the slowdown to industrywide challenges, not company-specific issues that Chipotle needs to address. Unemployment, increased student loan repayments and slower real wage growth accounting for inflation are weighing on consumers’ spending, according to Boatwright.

ghaff 11mo ago
I'm not sure how much significance I would attribute to a specific fairly crappy mid-range chain restaurant's woes.

Balgair 11mo ago

Total anecdote here: Watching college ball today and nearly every commercial (80%+) are Christmas commercials in some way. The day after Halloween, not the day after Thanksgiving. I know Christmas creep is a thing, and I may not have been paying attention in past years, but it seems like companies are desperate for black Friday to come this year