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Funny how some of his projects got cancelled like K12 at AMD or Royal Core at INTC and people always act like that was terrible decision, yet AMD is up like 100

Funny how some of his projects got cancelled like K12 at AMD or Royal Core at INTC and people always act like that was terrible decision, yet AMD is up like 100x on stock market and INTC... times gonna tell

guerrilla 1y ago
Cult of personality... or maybe people just want cool stuff for fun.
- keyringlight 1y ago
  Keller himself credits the many people responsible for the contributing parts [0]. I think the general 'enthusiast' tech press and reporting likes hero figures and the simplicity it brings, even better when you can cast a good guy against a bad guy, and the background in this case would be AMD vs intel. [0] https://web.archive.org/web/20210622032535/https://www.anandtech.com/show/16762/an-anandtech-interview-with-jim-keller-laziest-person-at-tesla https://web.archive.org/web/20210622032535/https://www.anand...
  - BirAdam 1y ago
    Humans inherently like having a narrative. When we discuss historical events, we typically want to have a clearly defined leader and/or visionary upon whom to pin events. Without this, our imaginations aren't as engaged, and therefore emotions aren't stirred. For example, the stories of early game companies are great because the teams were very small, a narrative can be written, and the product was fun. With modern games, budgets are massive, teams are massive, and things are often designed and approved by committee. The result can be beautiful and fun, but the story getting there isn't as entertaining.
    - AnthonyMouse 1y ago
      This is the same reason we have trouble erecting defenses against "the banality of evil" etc. When the villain wears a monocle and smokes a cigar, everybody hates them. When the villain is a misaligned structural incentive, a million people can die and politicians and the media will start rounding up scapegoats instead of actually changing the incentive.
Keyframe 1y ago
is stock up because of them or despite them?
- high_na_euv 1y ago
  It is hard to evaluate it reliably.
- nolok 1y ago
  In the case of AMD it's definitely because of them and the great leadership from Lisa Su.
- bee_rider 1y ago
  AMD is doing well because they moved on chiplets before Intel did. The decision of ARM vs x86 is pretty much unrelated to the move that saved them, and sticking with the architecture with which they had decades of experience was probably a good idea. I mean Keller is talking about a decision to not pursue an ARM chip that he’d apparently been working on after(?) Zen 2 (or maybe in parallel). So AMD was already back on a good path at that point.
StopDisinfo910 1y ago
Seems completely uncorrelated with what is discussed especially considering Intel didn’t enter the ARM market either. Would make much more sense to compare with Qualcomm trajectory here as they dominate the high end ARM SoC market. Basically AMD missed the opportunity to be first mover on a market which is now huge with a project Apple proved to be viable three years after the planned AMD release. Any way you look at it, it seems like a major miss. The fact that other good decisions in other segments were made at the same time doesn’t change that.
- high_na_euv 1y ago
  Apple has way stronger leverage than AMD when it comes to forcing "new standards" lets say. AMD cannot go and tell its customers "hey we are changing ISA, go adjust.". Their customers would run to Intel. Apple could do that and forced its laptops to use it. Developers couldnt afford losing those users, so they adjusted.
  - StopDisinfo910 1y ago
    It’s a chicken and egg problem. Nobody supports the new ISA because there is no SoC and nobody makes the new SoC because there is no support. But in this case, that’s not really true because Linux support was ready. More than forcing volumes, Apple proved it was worth it because the efficiency gains were huge. If AMD had release a SoC with numbers close to the M1 before Apple targeting the server market, they had a very good shot at it being a success and leveraging that to success in the laptop markets where Microsoft would have loved to have a partner ready to fight Apple and had to wait for Qualcomm for ages. Anyway, I stand that looking at how the stock moved tells us nothing about if the cancellation was a good or a bad decision.
    - high_na_euv 1y ago
      >More than forcing volumes, Apple proved it was worth it because the efficiency gains were huge. If AMD had release a SoC with numbers close to the M1 before Apple targeting the server market, they had a very good shot at it being a success and leveraging that to success in the laptop markets where Microsoft would have loved to have a partner ready to fight Apple and had to wait for Qualcomm for ages. Apple proved that creating your own high end consumer SoC was doable and viable idea due to TSMC and could result in better chips due to designing them around your needs. And which ISA they could use? X86? Hard to say, probably no. So they had RISCV and ARM Also about Windows... If PantherLake on 18A actually performs as good as expected, then why would anyone move to ARM on Windows when viable energy eff. cpus like lnl and ptl are available
MangoToupe 1y ago
Stock valuation is a horrible measure of how well a company has planned for the future. Time has demonstrated this again and again and again.
- high_na_euv 1y ago
  But in this context that future is now and AMD is way better than it was around 2014-2017.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]

guerrilla 1y ago

Cult of personality... or maybe people just want cool stuff for fun.

keyringlight 1y ago
Keller himself credits the many people responsible for the contributing parts [0]. I think the general 'enthusiast' tech press and reporting likes hero figures and the simplicity it brings, even better when you can cast a good guy against a bad guy, and the background in this case would be AMD vs intel. [0] https://web.archive.org/web/20210622032535/https://www.anandtech.com/show/16762/an-anandtech-interview-with-jim-keller-laziest-person-at-tesla https://web.archive.org/web/20210622032535/https://www.anand...
- BirAdam 1y ago
  Humans inherently like having a narrative. When we discuss historical events, we typically want to have a clearly defined leader and/or visionary upon whom to pin events. Without this, our imaginations aren't as engaged, and therefore emotions aren't stirred. For example, the stories of early game companies are great because the teams were very small, a narrative can be written, and the product was fun. With modern games, budgets are massive, teams are massive, and things are often designed and approved by committee. The result can be beautiful and fun, but the story getting there isn't as entertaining.
  - AnthonyMouse 1y ago
    This is the same reason we have trouble erecting defenses against "the banality of evil" etc. When the villain wears a monocle and smokes a cigar, everybody hates them. When the villain is a misaligned structural incentive, a million people can die and politicians and the media will start rounding up scapegoats instead of actually changing the incentive.

Keyframe 1y ago

is stock up because of them or despite them?

high_na_euv 1y ago
It is hard to evaluate it reliably.
nolok 1y ago
In the case of AMD it's definitely because of them and the great leadership from Lisa Su.
bee_rider 1y ago
AMD is doing well because they moved on chiplets before Intel did. The decision of ARM vs x86 is pretty much unrelated to the move that saved them, and sticking with the architecture with which they had decades of experience was probably a good idea. I mean Keller is talking about a decision to not pursue an ARM chip that he’d apparently been working on after(?) Zen 2 (or maybe in parallel). So AMD was already back on a good path at that point.

StopDisinfo910 1y ago

Seems completely uncorrelated with what is discussed especially considering Intel didn’t enter the ARM market either. Would make much more sense to compare with Qualcomm trajectory here as they dominate the high end ARM SoC market. Basically AMD missed the opportunity to be first mover on a market which is now huge with a project Apple proved to be viable three years after the planned AMD release. Any way you look at it, it seems like a major miss. The fact that other good decisions in other segments were made at the same time doesn’t change that.

high_na_euv 1y ago
Apple has way stronger leverage than AMD when it comes to forcing "new standards" lets say. AMD cannot go and tell its customers "hey we are changing ISA, go adjust.". Their customers would run to Intel. Apple could do that and forced its laptops to use it. Developers couldnt afford losing those users, so they adjusted.
- StopDisinfo910 1y ago
  It’s a chicken and egg problem. Nobody supports the new ISA because there is no SoC and nobody makes the new SoC because there is no support. But in this case, that’s not really true because Linux support was ready. More than forcing volumes, Apple proved it was worth it because the efficiency gains were huge. If AMD had release a SoC with numbers close to the M1 before Apple targeting the server market, they had a very good shot at it being a success and leveraging that to success in the laptop markets where Microsoft would have loved to have a partner ready to fight Apple and had to wait for Qualcomm for ages. Anyway, I stand that looking at how the stock moved tells us nothing about if the cancellation was a good or a bad decision.
  - high_na_euv 1y ago
    >More than forcing volumes, Apple proved it was worth it because the efficiency gains were huge. If AMD had release a SoC with numbers close to the M1 before Apple targeting the server market, they had a very good shot at it being a success and leveraging that to success in the laptop markets where Microsoft would have loved to have a partner ready to fight Apple and had to wait for Qualcomm for ages. Apple proved that creating your own high end consumer SoC was doable and viable idea due to TSMC and could result in better chips due to designing them around your needs. And which ISA they could use? X86? Hard to say, probably no. So they had RISCV and ARM Also about Windows... If PantherLake on 18A actually performs as good as expected, then why would anyone move to ARM on Windows when viable energy eff. cpus like lnl and ptl are available

MangoToupe 1y ago

Stock valuation is a horrible measure of how well a company has planned for the future. Time has demonstrated this again and again and again.

high_na_euv 1y ago
But in this context that future is now and AMD is way better than it was around 2014-2017.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]