9 ms·
Moderna has unraveled
- pizzathyme 1y agoI can understand the current global/political environment against mRNA accounting for a 90% fall in revenues and valuation. But if the mRNA tech is still progressing and promising for a variety of ailments like cancer, then the company still has substantial future value coming
- dmschulman 1y agoThe business model for pharma and drug discovery is unfortunately one that requires a lot of upfront investment for research and trials that may or may not pay off as revenue one day. The technology they invented is incredibly promising for new vaccines and they should be attracting enough investment (through contracts or other deals) to continue innovating and saving lives. Maybe they can license it as a last ditch effort to build revenue, but unfortunately the public perceptions about vaccine efficacy is on the wane and government contracts are no longer there to support this vital work both in the present and as a hedge against future pandemics.
- lumost 1y agoIt's tough to get people to want a vaccine which knocks you off your feet for 3 days and needs to be repeated every 6-12 months. I'm very bullish on mRNA vaccine technology - but it's potentially a poor fit for rapidly changing viruses.
- mattmaroon 1y agoIf you mean covid, most people aren’t knocked off their feet at all. If you mean cancer, that’s a dream compared to chemo.
- kerabatsos 1y agoIs this a serious comment? Covid killed over a million people in the United States alone.
- mattmaroon 1y agoReread it until you understand that we were talking about the vaccine not the disease
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- paganel 1y agoThat was the initial shock, we're all better now, with or without the vaccine.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- DanHulton 1y agoThat sucks if that's your experience, but it's not the universal, or even the common, experience. For reference, I get a sore-ish shoulder the next day, and that's it. Also for reference, when I got Actual Covid, I was knocked on my ass for almost two weeks. So for me, at least, the choice is easy.
- lumost 1y agoIt's my unfortunate experience, when I've had covid its a 6-12 hour affair that happens once every 12-24 months. My 3rd vaccine shot had me in bed for 3 days. Leading to continued vaccination being unsustainable. My wife has a similar experience to yours, and gets moderate to severe covid. She gets the vaccine every year to help avoid it - but still gets moderate COVID roughly once per 6 months. It's unfortunate that the vaccine has such radically different outcomes within a single household, if it was a flu shot like experience I'd happily get it once per year.
- toast0 1y ago> it was a flu shot like experience Flu shot experience varies too. The last several have been very low response, but the first few were a miserable couple days and I stopped getting them because certain misery was worse than a chance of misery that I'd never know if it was flu or not, because testing was inaccessible.
- soco 1y agoLast year I skipped the flu vac (I had a zillion for tropical diseases so I though come one not another one) and lo, I got a flu about every 4 weeks, so like over 6 the whole season. I'm on a way to get it this year.
- xjlin0 1y agoat least the vaccine greatly reduce the severe conditions such as death.
- rsingel 1y agoCOVID is a nasty virus. I need my brain way to much to FAFO. COVID-19 may Enduringly Impact Cognitive Performance and Brain Haemodynamics in Undergraduate Students - ScienceDirect https://share.google/49ER4VjJUwipGotZO https://share.google/49ER4VjJUwipGotZO
- dmschulman 1y agoPeople have varying immune responses to getting vaccines, but feeling crummy after getting a flu shot has nothing to do with whether the vaccine used mRNA technology or not. I would say people who end up bedridden for 3 days are in the minority for most vaccines immune responses, but people also need to make peace with the idea that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
- gdulli 1y agoIt has affected me for at most 16 hours. I have never heard 3 days, though I'm sure there are some rare outliers. And, not being at high risk, I don't "need" it more than once a year. This kind of exaggeration is one of the things that doesn't help public opinion. Especially when there are people actively looking for ways to subvert it.
- rpdillon 1y agoReactions vary. I got a COVID shot on Friday. I had to massage my arm a little bit Saturday, but nothing more incovenient than that.
- dfsegoat 1y agoTo put some numbers to trying to develop a single therapy (where candidates etc. will fail as you try them) - Plan to sink $180-500M+ just in R&D - Factor in failures, regulatory, clinical, recruitment, phase 1/2 trials and you arrive very quickly around $1.3-2.1 BILLION USD per therapy approved. ...there is a 90% chance that you will spend that $1B+ - and it will fail completely. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00043-x https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00043-x https://greenfieldchemical.com/2023/08/10/the-staggering-cost-of-drug-development-a-look-at-the-numbers https://greenfieldchemical.com/2023/08/10/the-staggering-cos...
- mycall 1y agoAccording to your numbers, Moderna got lucky at a 10% chance of producing the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in 48 hours of computation? I don't know, but there seems to be more factors at play. https://www.nanowerk.com/spotlight/spotid=57148.php https://www.nanowerk.com/spotlight/spotid=57148.php
- bluGill 1y agoModerna got lucky in that we know enough about that virus that the chance of a COVID-19 vaccine was a lot more than 10%. The more general case of a drug is a lot more than specific one
- OutOfHere 1y ago[flagged]
- ThrowMeAway1618 1y agoNo
- OutOfHere 1y agoThis doesn't prove that Fauci knew of the furin cleavage site, but it does raise serious questions: https://oversight.house.gov/release/hearing-wrap-up-nih-repeatedly-refutes-ecohealth-alliance-president-dr-peter-daszaks-testimony-tabak-testimony-reveals-federal-grant-procedures-in-need-of-serious-reform/ https://oversight.house.gov/release/hearing-wrap-up-nih-repe...? > NIH Deputy Director and former Acting NIH Director, Dr. Lawrence Tabak, acknowledged that NIH funded gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China. https://www.congress.gov/event/118th-congress/senate-event/LC73181/text https://www.congress.gov/event/118th-congress/senate-event/L... > Also, in 2018, just one year before the outbreak in a DARPA grant proposal, Wuhan Institute of Virology and its collaborators proposed to construct genetically modified SARS viruses having a furin cleavage site, a feature associated with increased viral growth and increased transmissibility. They proposed to insert the furin cleavage site at the spike gene S1/S2 border, and to construct the viruses by synthesizing six nucleic acid-building blocks, and assembling them using the reagent BsmB1. > Fourth, in 2019, a novel SARS virus having a spike with extremely high binding affinity for human SARS receptors, a furin cleavage site inserted at the spike S1/S2 border, and a genome sequence with features enabling assembly from six synthetic nucleic acid building blocks using the reagent BsmB1--a virus having the exact features proposed into 2018 NIH and DARPA proposals--emerged on the doorstep of Wuhan Institute of Virology. > Taken together, the presence of a spike having an extremely high affinity for human SARS receptors, the presence of a furin cleavage site inserted at the spike S1/S2 border, the genome sequence enabling assembly from six synthetic nucleic acid- building blocks using the reagent BsmB1, and the one-for-one match between these features and the features proposed in the 2018 NIH and DARPA proposals, make an extremely strong case--a smoking gun--for a research origin.
- deltarholamda 1y agoQuite a lot of the low-hanging fruit from pharma has already been picked. The modern business model for pharma involves coming up with a patentable new drug that does the same thing as an older drug that's now out of patent and available for manufacture as a generic. Making pharmaceuticals subservient to the whimsy of the stock market is a bad idea. It introduces incentive distortions where none should be.
- tempera 1y ago[dead]
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- sherburt3 1y ago[flagged]
- dadjoker 1y ago[flagged]
- reenorap 1y agomRNA vaccines are a fantastic technology that were completely oversold by politicians. The politicians lied to our faces and twisted our arms through mandates and threatened us to believe what they told us, not what we were seeing with our own eyes. I don't think the reaction against mRNA vaccines would have been so strong if they didn't try to force us to take it or if they didn't wage a religious war against those that didn't want to take it. But I still believe mRNA has a great future ahead of it. I have recently bought a large position (for me) in Moderna because I think it will be able to fulfill the promises that we were told it would.
- voidnap 1y agoWere very many forced to get mRNA? Even those under a vaccine mandate had the option for a non mRNA vaccine from J&J, right?
- joshuamcginnis 1y agoJ&J vaccine was eventually recalled and halted. By then, at least at the time I lived in Los Angeles, many employers and establishments flat out would not accept J&J vaccination proofs under the premise that because there were multiple boosters available for mRNA, it was no longer effective.
- colechristensen 1y agoAll they had to do is be a little witholding and say that vaccines were prioritized for the very sick and very important people and maybe leak some important asshole in a private conversation saying it was a "good thing" that most people wouldn't be getting it. Just do what the French did to popularize potatoes... post guards on your potato fields and tell people they can't have them. Instead they took the line of "we know better than you and we're going to force you to do this". Democrats have a real problem with the "we know what's good for you" attitude.
- sgc 1y agoThe next level up from the Democrats objectively horrible attitude is fascism, which we are currently attempting. I believe Americans have a strong cultural preference to be extreme bullies whenever they can get away with it. So often we are just execrable people who care nothing about others, at all.
- Projectiboga 1y agoA type of Karma hitting them. U Pitt Medical Center had a ready to trial covid vaccine based on super sharp glucose spikes coated with some spike protein. Decent results in lab animals, ready for a human trial. Moderna bought it out by paying off UpittMC to sideline that and become a major testing partner for their mRNA product. Even if it is a legitimate advance the bullying of the media to down focus more tradational products and pulling a new tech from reaching testing is limiting our scientiffic discovery. They pushed the mRNA technology as their lawyers must have felt there were more legal and regulatory barriers to competition to give them a longer profit runway.
- t1234s 1y agoModerna looked more like a pump and dump
- cynicalsecurity 1y ago[flagged]
- jleyank 1y agoToo many people would rather risk suffering the disease than take the vaccine. These might be the same people criticizing pharma for alleviating symptoms rather than providing cures. mRNA is an interesting means of delivering molecules on-site without mucking about with the body’s general systems. But the ‘Net says drugs are bad so they have funding problems. Hope such people reconsider their stance when the threat level is high enough. Err, threat to them and theirs as the threat to others isn’t high enough by definition.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- falcor84 1y ago> Too many people would rather risk suffering the disease than take the vaccine. Apologies for being morbid, but that's what we call a self-fixing problem, isn't it? On a Darwinistic level, people either adopt an effective threat assessment approach or they die. EDIT: Following up on some of the comments, note that I didn't actually say whether vaccine deniers do or do not have an effective threat assessment approach - I don't know. While I personally do believe in the effectiveness of vaccines, I definitely am not qualified to be making risk decisions for other people, and it's important for me to say this, because I don't want other people to make decisions for me. For example, I don't want others to tell me to not do extreme sports, or not to go out to the wilderness, or not to drink alcohol, etc, regardless of whether society feels that this increases my health risks. I strongly believe that a core part of being free is being able to make these decisions for oneself. I agree that we should have some way of preventing harm to others, but it can't be something that comes at the cost of removing people's bodily autonomy (or even just denigrating people for choosing differently).
- jleyank 1y agoHence my statement about hope…
- seized 1y agoNot really, those people go to a hospital where there is a duty of care. Hospitals don't get to just say "Nah, not gonna help you" and close the door for people showing up in the ED. So those vaccine deniers get sick, lose their commitment, go to the ED, get some level of treatment/help/etc, and suck up resources and impact help for the guy who got vaccinated then got hit by someone running a red light....
- SilverElfin 1y agoBad timing. Their stock is up 15% today.
- camcaine 1y ago[flagged]
- Wasa_bi 1y agoWhy is there a constant need to justify why vaccines, vaccine research, and anything related to them are inherently a good thing to skeptics but we're also supposed to believe that AI and the major companies proping it up is the future with no scrutiny?
- AnimalMuppet 1y agoHN is not one person. It is not even one cohesive "we". Here you find people who are AI believers, and AI skeptics. And you find people who are vaccine believers, and vaccine skeptics. And if you think that HN believes that AI is the future with no scrutiny, you haven't been paying attention.
- monero-xmr 1y agoI'm not a "vaccine skeptic" per se but the fact a novel mechanism for vaccines was hand-waived through the FDA, and essentially forced on everyone in society, is something that has not been scrutinized enough
- conception 1y agoIf by hand waved you mean gone through the same clinical trials and rigor as any approved approach.
- monero-xmr 1y agoExcept for years of follow-up studies to determine longer term effects, which certainly would have been applied for a novel vaccine, before forcing all of society to use it. Of course you could be fired from your job and be banned from public spaces (except in Florida) instead of taking it, but essentially you had to if you wanted to function in society. I will keep my laminated "Proof of Vaccination" card for life so we don't forget, wasn't allowed anywhere without it (except Black Lives Matter riots)
- soco 1y agoOh well, in the meantime a few years have gone by and the studies are here. Do we really need to repeat the same arguments of 5 years ago?
- boxerab 1y agoIt certainly did not save the world. Because, as we now know, it did not prevent either infection or spread. All it did was expose people to risk such as elevated incidence of myocarditis, a fact even the manufacturer has acknowledged. For all you down-voters, can you provide an evidence-based rebuttal rather than a cowardly down vote ?
- ffsm8 1y agoFwiw, you didn't provide any evidence based claims anyone could make a rebuttal for. You just stated your own view as authority.
- boxerab 1y agoThat is an interesting point. The statement "the company that helped save the world" that I was responding to was stated without evidence. So, in the words of Christopher Hitchens, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. IMHO, if someone disagrees with me, they can ask for evidence, and there is plenty. Downvoting makes my post less and less visible, suppressing my opinion, rather than debating it. That's why I think it is cowardly. Of course there is a place for suppression, for example for abusive posts or inciting violence. But here, I politely state my opinion, let people debate.
- ThrowMeAway1618 1y ago[flagged]
- doka_smoka 1y ago[dead]
- ericmcer 1y agoWhat is this article? "Why is a company whose entire valuation was based on covid-19 vaccine sales struggling now???" Mysterious!
- christophilus 1y agoYeah. My thoughts exactly. Its valuation is back to pre pandemic levels which seems reasonable.
- pronouncedjerry 1y agocan i bypass the paywall and pay just for this one article?
- tsoukase 1y agoModerna's covid vaccine was a state-of-the-art, low side effect one that I was jealous of. I had taken the almost same one of Prizer without problem. They made a miracle in just months while the regular vaccines have a decade long pipeline. But a drug company has to produce new products if she wants to survive. m-RNA tech, although promising in theory and the beginning, couldn't produce a life saving block buster product and now the parent company might die or be buyed out.