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> For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. Spillover of problems like mass migration away from the equator and increase in con

> For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. Spillover of problems like mass migration away from the equator and increase in conflicts.

polotics 1y ago
As long as you classify as annoyances the overheat deaths of many poorer and/or frailer (and a few wealthy-but-unlucky) members of your developed world, then indeed you can call this annoying. Also you can drop the "will be" and start using "is".
fulafel 1y ago
Also increased threat of far-right rule in democracies and general dehumanizing attitude toward people in trouble.
- moritzwarhier 1y ago
  That's not a prediction, it's a current reality. It's already prescribed by calling circumstances people have no control over "being in trouble": but that is certainly not wrong! If someone smashes your windows at night, robs you, you're in trouble. If you're being threatened with a weapon, you're in trouble. But you're also in trouble when you leave your house in a freezing night and don't remember to put your keys in your pocket. If you're unlawfully detained, you're in trouble, as much as you are in trouble when you're detained for a good reason. Dehumanizing people who are "in trouble" is as old as humanity itself. Rape victims are also in trouble. Even worse, trouble tends to accumulate and amplify existing trouble. Some people think that's just how the world works. It's certainly how a world of animals works. And a "fair" world is hard to imagine, the human condition is partly an attempt to achieve it though.
ares623 1y ago
Food supply chains disrupted. Piracy will increase and spread.
- energy123 1y ago
  Basically, the spherical cow mindset of "just police the borders harder" is wishful thinking. The world is interconnected in multiple aspects, not just physical borders. Even if you succeed in immunising yourself from all side effects, your immediate neighbor may not be successful, and the instability can come for you through many mechanisms. Prices of food, breakup of the EU, wars, authoritarianism in your own society. Just look at Canada dealing with tariffs through little fault of their own. It isn't as easy as declaring yourself as immune from international instability.
  - balaz 1y ago
    One of the reasons the best time to make sure every first-world country is self reliant was yesterday; the second best time is today.
    - energy123 1y ago
      Another spherical cow solution.
      - ares623 1y ago
        I wonder how software engineers will fare in a “self reliant” economy. Do unvested stocks work in a barter?
        fulafel 1y ago
        Without trade interdependencies wars seem much more attractive to powerhungry leaders of countries, engineers can probably earn a living building killer ai robots.
    - mk89 1y ago
      Careful to what you wish for. Autarky can be often found in 19th century literature. The one we hopefully don't want to have or produce anymore.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
snapplebobapple 1y ago
Thats one of those things that, once it gets bad enough, it will be solved rapidly with automated sentry turrets or similar technology and will turn into an annoying logistics problem of keeping the sentry turrets armed. It isn't correct to point at that as the thing thatcmakes the original statement untrue.

> For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. Spillover of problems like mass migration away from the equator and increase in conflicts.

polotics 1y ago

As long as you classify as annoyances the overheat deaths of many poorer and/or frailer (and a few wealthy-but-unlucky) members of your developed world, then indeed you can call this annoying. Also you can drop the "will be" and start using "is".

fulafel 1y ago

Also increased threat of far-right rule in democracies and general dehumanizing attitude toward people in trouble.

moritzwarhier 1y ago
That's not a prediction, it's a current reality. It's already prescribed by calling circumstances people have no control over "being in trouble": but that is certainly not wrong! If someone smashes your windows at night, robs you, you're in trouble. If you're being threatened with a weapon, you're in trouble. But you're also in trouble when you leave your house in a freezing night and don't remember to put your keys in your pocket. If you're unlawfully detained, you're in trouble, as much as you are in trouble when you're detained for a good reason. Dehumanizing people who are "in trouble" is as old as humanity itself. Rape victims are also in trouble. Even worse, trouble tends to accumulate and amplify existing trouble. Some people think that's just how the world works. It's certainly how a world of animals works. And a "fair" world is hard to imagine, the human condition is partly an attempt to achieve it though.

ares623 1y ago

Food supply chains disrupted. Piracy will increase and spread.

energy123 1y ago
Basically, the spherical cow mindset of "just police the borders harder" is wishful thinking. The world is interconnected in multiple aspects, not just physical borders. Even if you succeed in immunising yourself from all side effects, your immediate neighbor may not be successful, and the instability can come for you through many mechanisms. Prices of food, breakup of the EU, wars, authoritarianism in your own society. Just look at Canada dealing with tariffs through little fault of their own. It isn't as easy as declaring yourself as immune from international instability.
- balaz 1y ago
  One of the reasons the best time to make sure every first-world country is self reliant was yesterday; the second best time is today.
  - energy123 1y ago
    Another spherical cow solution.
    - ares623 1y ago
      I wonder how software engineers will fare in a “self reliant” economy. Do unvested stocks work in a barter?
      - fulafel 1y ago
        Without trade interdependencies wars seem much more attractive to powerhungry leaders of countries, engineers can probably earn a living building killer ai robots.
  - mk89 1y ago
    Careful to what you wish for. Autarky can be often found in 19th century literature. The one we hopefully don't want to have or produce anymore.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

snapplebobapple 1y ago

Thats one of those things that, once it gets bad enough, it will be solved rapidly with automated sentry turrets or similar technology and will turn into an annoying logistics problem of keeping the sentry turrets armed. It isn't correct to point at that as the thing thatcmakes the original statement untrue.